@craigballard77

Wednesday, January 19, 2011

As all teams in the National Basketball Association have played 41 games now we are smack in the middle of the 2010-2011 season...let's take a look at some notable Good...Bad...and Ugly


The Good...

There are a few places to start here...let's start with San Antonio...the Spurs are an Association best 35-6...the depth on this squad allows them to dictate tempo, and impose their will on most nights vs most opponents...this team has 9 guys averaging at least 7 points per game...Manu Ginobli is playing great, and Tony Parker too...the depth has allowed Tim Duncan to just go with the flow and contribute wherever he can...damn good team with a damn great Coach...Greg Popovich has my respect big time

The Celtics (Jermaine O'Neal...Rajon Rondo...KG... Shaq) and Miami (LBJ...Mike Miller) have had guys miss time due to injury, but the Celts are 31-9 and Miami is 30-12 currently...The Lakers and the Thunder have had ups and downs, but still have 58 wins between them...of the teams that lost Superstars in the off-season (Raps/Cavs/Suns/Jazz) only the Jazz have been good...Jerry Sloan has this team playing great on the road and the have a 27-14 overall record (currently tied for the #3 seed in the West)

Blake Griffin is a BEAST
In LaLa Land the Clippers have 2 players playing at an All-Star level...rookie Blake Griffin in the best pick-and-roll big man to enter the Association since Amar'e...this guy is a true beast...as we speak he is in the midst of 27 straight double-doubles (team record) and his 47 points the other night are the most in a single game in the NBA so far this season...the Clipps also have 3rd year Guard Eric Gordon...this guy has a 18 ppg career average, and is up to 24 this season

Amar'e Stoudamire has been the toast of New York...he is setting team records for scoring, and is currently #2 in the NBA at 26 points per game...Amar'e and new PG Raymond Felton have the Knicks at 22-18 (6th seed in the East currently)

At 21 years young Kevin Durant was the youngest scoring leader in the history of the NBA, and he is back at it again this season leading the NBA at 28 points per game...

Kevin Love has developed into a double-double machine in Minny...21 ppg with 15 rebounds per game is what this 3rd year Forward-Center is averaging...

In Memphis PF Zach Randolph is on pace to average a double-double 5th time in the past 6 seasons, and he is looking at 20+ ppg for the 4th straight season...


Rose is nearing the high level set by Rondo

3rd year PG Derrick Rose in Chicago has the looks of Rajon Rondo last season...2009-2010 season was the coming out party for Rondo, and Rose has taken several steps forward in his overall game this season...even Kobe Bryant has commented that he appreciates seeing a player with Rose's skills that gets better from year-to-year...Kobe follows the game closely and he knows the areas that require development from Rose and after playing the Bulls a few weeks ago Kobe said he was happy and impressed that Rose is clearly working on his overall game...

The Orlando Magic pulled the triggers on multiple trades that saw Vince Carter, Mikael Pietrus, Marcin Gortat, and Rashard Lewis get moved for Hedo Turkoglu, Jason Richardson, and Gilbert Arenas...the new-look Magic lost the first 2 games with that new squad, but since that are 10-3 (the 3 losses were @ New Orleans...@ OK City...@ Boston and the 3 losses were by a combined 7 points)


The Bad...

If the playoffs started today the Phoenix Suns and the Houston Rockets would be surprise omissions in the West...in the East Charlotte and Milwaukee are currently on the outside looking in

Larry Brown was shown the door in Charlotte after a 9-19 start...the players have been very vocal at how much they appreciate new coach Paul Silas' offense-first approach, and have been vocal about how Larry Brown's slow-down style was nothing but frustrating...

as a GM Dumars has been horrible since '04

The 2004 NBA Title that the Detroit Pistons won has sure bought GM Joe Dumars a TON of leeway...in the years that have followed he has been terrible with his player-personnel decisions...this team is currently 15-26 and completely irrelevant in the Association

New Jersey and Minny are a combined 0-18 vs Division foes

Toronto-Sacramento-Minnesota-New Jersey-Washington all continue to be organizations that just stack L's

The Dallas Mavericks got out to an impressive 26-8 start, but Disco Dirk Nowitzki and Caron Butler went down to injury and as a result the Mavs have currently lost 6 straight...Dirk just came back, but the dynamic scorer Butler is lost for the season


The Ugly...

Cleveland Cavs are currently in the midst of a 13 game losing streak, and these losses are blow-out losses...their record is currently 8-32

Washington Wizards are 0-19 on the road

Players throughout the NBA are being warned on a daily basis about gambling with each other (fights and hard feelings going on all over from in-flight card games and gambling)


WHERE will Melo end up at trade deadline?

Players throughout the NBA are being warned on a daily basis about using extreme care and caution when using Social Media like Twitter...

The drama surrounding Carmelo Anthony and his future have become annoying on a Brett Favre level...every day...every story in the Association seems to be about where Melo will end up...he is sure to land in the State of New York, but what Borough?

Next up...video blogs to preview AFC and NFC Championship games... craig.ballard@hotmail.com

Thursday, January 13, 2011

NFC Division Weekend

The NFC Division Weekend features a pair of rematches...Seattle won @ Chicago in Week 6 with a 23-20 final...Green Bay lost @ Atlanta 20-17

Seattle Seahawks @ Chicago Bears

When the Seahawks have the ball...

Mike Williams and Pete Carroll all smiles at USC
WR Mike Williams is a great story for 2010...last NFL action was in 2007, but he was re-united and it feels so good with his USC Coach Pete Carrol ...just 2 Regular Season TD's, but he led the team with 68 catches and 751 yards...in last week's stunner that eliminated New Orleans he caught 5 passes - one went for a TD...in the Week 6 win @ Chicago Williams had QB Matt Hasselbeck will be looking to spread the ball throughout guys like Williams, Ben Obomanu, and veteran Brandon Stokley...the running game has Justin Forsett and Marshawn Lynch...Lynch gave Seattle that memorable TD run vs New Orleans last week, and Forsett ran for a 6.7 yards per carry average in the Week 6 Bears game (his Reg Season average was 4.4)...throughout the Regular Season the Seahawks running game ranked 2nd or 3rd from the bottom...to go with a poor running game Hasselbeck threw 17 INT's and only 12 TD's...it all added up to a bottom 5 overall Offence, but they exploded for 400+ total yards last Saturday...

Bears great D-Line allows Urlacher and Briggs to attack

This Bears D is Top 10 in most Defensive categories including #2 vs the rush (90 yards per game) and #4 for points allowed (17 points per game)...on the D-Line Julius Peppers (Pro Bowl) and Israel Idonije (8 sacks each) occupy enough of the O-Line to allow great LB's Brian Urlacher (Pro Bowl)and Lance Briggs (Pro Bowl) to be aggressive...the Secondary is a group that accounted for 21 INT's, and the D as a whole forces a lot of fumbles...This D has a goal of 3 turnovers per game and that is how they are coached...for years the Bears have been great at INT's and at stripping the ball from ball carriers/wide receivers...the CB's to cover Williams and Obamanu will be veteran Charles Tillman and former Colts player Tim Jennings...D.J. Moore will cover any 3rd WR...this D knocked Favre into retirement, and the only drama for me in this game is what broadcast booth will the Bears knock Hasselbeck into as he will surely retire and become a broadcaster after this game

When Chicago has the ball... 

Lovie/Cutler/Martz needed each other to rejuvenate their careers

The Bears O was an up and down unit in 2010...the #'s are pedestrian, bad even...bottom 10 in most categories...QB Jay Cutler threw 23 TD's (good, not great) but was picked off 16 times (bad) and sacked 52 times (yikes)...In the Week 6 game vs Seattle he went down 6 times, but he did throw for 290 yards (0 TD...0 INT)...what is concerning is that his completion percentage vs Seattle was a brutal 43%...The thing here is this is the 3rd different system in as many years for Jay so we knew there would be time needed for him to adapt to this Mike Martz system (a TOUGH system to learn and master...it will take some time)...things have been better lately for the O, and with more and more understanding of the system things will only get better and better for Chicago in the short, and long term...Surely an infusion of talent on the O-Line, and in the WR group is needed for Chicago in the off-season, but some pieces are in place already...WR Johnny Knox led the team with 51 catches (tied with RB Matt Forte) and 960 receiving yards...his 5 TD's tied him for team lead with TE Greg Olsen...Know had a very impressive 18.8 yards per catch (by far #1 on the team)...Knox and Olsen will be the focal points of the passing game with WR Earl Bennett contributing too...Martz runs plays where he has Cutler throw short/quick passes to Forte which are basically their version of running plays as Martz likes to get Forte the ball in open space as he may not be a traditional RB who can bring success by pounding it into the D-Line every carry...veteran RB Chester Taylor will get playing time too...of course the dynamic Devin Hester will return kicks, and the Bears do try to get him touches on O too

Earl Thomas has played well as a rookie
No team in these playoffs allow more yards per game than do the Seahawks...when they get beat they get slaughtered...Seattle has lost 9 games this season and their average margin of defeat is an amazing 21 points...very often teams score on this D, and keep scoring...witness these #'s by weak Offences - 38 points for Tampa Bay...40 points for San Francisco...33 points for Oakland...31 points by Denver...This is a unit led by LB's Lofa Tatupu and David Hawthorne, but has little depth...the unit is middle of the pack for forcing fumbles, and had just 12 INT's...the Secondary has veterans Lawyer Malloy and Marcus Trufant to go with great rookie Earl Thomas...the pass rush is brought by Raheem Brock and Chris Clemons...some talent here, but not a ton


Green Bay Packers @ Atlanta Falcons

When the Packers have the ball...


Greg Jennings doing a Lambeau Leap
 This Packers O is Top 10 in the NFL in numerous categories...The unit is led by QB Aaron Rodgers who gets major production from Pro Bowl WR Greg Jennings and Pro Bowl LT Chad Clifton...the running game lost #1 RB Ryan Grant in Week 1 and never really found a steady and productive replacement...rookie James Starks ran for 101 yards in all of the Regular Season, but against Philly he romped for 123...If the Pack are really going to get that kind of a contribution in the running game then this O will put up points...the passing game is strong...Rodgers and Jennings, plus the ageless Donald Driver, and against Philly 9 different players caught a pass from Rodgers...despite losing to this Falcons team in Week 12 Rodgers passed for 344 yards and hit 8 different players...the #1 rusher that day was Rodgers with 51 yards and a TD, but RB Brandon Jackson had just 26 yards on 10 carries...either Jackson or Starks will have to produce vs the Falcons, but the Falcons D is more vulnerable to attack through the air so look for a big day from Aaron Rodgers...


 This Falcons D allowed 105 yards per game on the ground (10th best in the NFL) and allowed just 18 points per game (5th best in the NFL)...Pro Bowl DE John Abraham (pictured here) is the only pass rush threat...Abraham had double-digit Sacks for the 6th time in his career this season...ILB Curtis Lofton is very good...CB Brent Grimes (not related to Frank Grimes) and former Texans CB Dunta Robinson will both be heavily tested vs the Packers...the Secondary was Bottom 10 as far as yards allowed through the air, but the team did get a very impressive 22 INT's...on Saturday I will be looking at SS William Moore as a guy who needs a big INT...the Week 12 game vs Green Bay was a W, but the D was torched through the air...a key on Saturday will be containing Packers WR Greg Jennings...Jennings burned most teams this season, and Week 12 was no exception as he burned the Falcons for 119 yards on 5 catches...


When the Falcons have the ball...

#2 Matt Ryan has all eyes on him as the leader of this O
QB Matt Ryan has an impressive 20-2 record at home in the Dome...Ryan threw for 3,705 yards with 28 TD's vs just 9 INT's, and had a career high QB Rating of 91.0 during his Pro Bowl 2010 season...WR Roddy White also was named to the Pro Bowl and he is a stud...2010 was White's 4th straight season of 1,150+ yards, plus for the second straight season he had double-digit TD catches...Veteran TE Tony Gonzalez is in the 14th season of his Hall Of Fame career, and he again was named to the Pro Bowl...FB Jason Snelling and WR Michael Jenkins also contribute...as far as the running attack goes, enter Michael Turner...after injuries slowed his 2009 season Turner rebounded this season to get 1,371 and 12 TD's this season and was also named to the Pro Bowl...in the Week 12 matchup vs this same Packers D Turner ran for 110 yards and a TD at a very impressive 4.8 yards per carry...Atlanta is middle of the pack in most Offence categories, but they combine all their pieces to still be able to average 26 points per game (5th best in the NFL)...the Falcons scored 47 TD's and the Packers got 46


Clay Matthews is a MONSTER
This Packers D is very good...Top 5 in several categories including #2 in points allowed per game at just 15.0...There are 3 Pro Bowl studs on this unit...2nd year OLB Clay Matthews had 13.5 Sacks...The defending Defensive Player Of The Year CB Charles Woodson had a career high 92 tackles this season...FS Nick Collins was named to the Pro Bowl for a third straight season...ILB's A.J. Hawk and Desmond Bishop each had 100+ tackles this season...remarkable production form those 2...on the D-Line B.J Raji and Cullen Jenkins give the Packers their pass rush from guys not named Matthews...the Secondary has Tramon Williams and Charlie Peprah to go with Woodson and Collins...the Packers 24 INT's were 2nd in the League...

AFC Divisional Weekend preview is below... craig.ballard@hotmail.com

Tuesday, January 11, 2011

AFC Division Round

We see that the AFC takes the whole idea of this weekend being Divisional Weekend seriously...both match-ups feature Division rivals...actually both games feature crazy/insane/intense rivalries

New York Jets @ New England Patriots

When The Pats have the ball...

Gronkowski and Hernandez

6th best D for points allowed vs #1 O for points scored...To talk about how good Tom Brady has been/should be/will be is obvious...the guy is special, truly...but Tom Terrific will not rush for many (if any) yards, and he will surely not catch any passes so let's look at other players that contribute to this 11 man unit for New England...in our Pre-Season blogs we looked at Belichick drafting two new toys for Brady in TE's Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez...each had the potential to give Brady a new weapon, and each has, especially in short yardage or goal line scenarios (16 TD's from Brady to these 2 guys this season)...The Pats run more multiple TE formations than any other team in the NFL thanks to the talent and depth there...on the outside of course is the amazing Wes Welker, and the rejuvenated Deion Branch...the O-Line does their job by keeping Brady upright (sacked just 25 times...both teams have 2 O-Lineman on the Pro Bowl roster) to spread the ball throughout the roster...the once non-existent running game has had a boost with the addition of Danny Woodhead and his gaudy 5.6 yards per carry...the Pats have carved the best D's in the NFL and will get a third challenge from this Jets D (Pats looked weak in a 28-14 Week 2 loss, but looked amazing in a Week 13 45-3 beat down)...the TE's are the key for the Brady Bunch...Wes Welker is great at running the short/underneath routes, and Branch can catch too, but Brady has been killing LB's and Safeties all year that are trying to cover the talented TE's in the middle of the field...The Pats are a Top 10 running team, especially lately with Woodhead, and we recall the Colts eliminating the Jets last season when they got a surprising 101 yards from the combo of Joseph Addai/Donald Brown...that was at a 4.2 yards per carry average...compare that to this past Saturday's paltry 3.7 yards per carry that the Colts managed and we see that even teams that are prolific through the air still have to bring a rushing element to their attack if they want to eliminate this D

The Jets D has Top 5 stats in almost every category, but the feeling is that as the season progressed they regressed...it was looking like if you can avoid Darrelle Revis and just pick on the other DB's you can make hay vs this D...that was not the case in the Wild Card game...Revis was amazing holding WR Reggie Wayne to 1 yard on 1 catch, but the rest of squad was good too...Safeties Eric Smith and Brodney Pool will need to have even better games in Foxborough, especially as they will need to account for the aforementioned Patriots TE's...for me the loss a short time ago of S Jim Leonard and really the loss of DT Kris Jenkins are monster losses for this Jets D, especially in this game...Leonard because of the Pats TE and running threat, and Jenkins is a huge loss IMO as I believe to beat Tom Brady you need to be able to bring pressure up the middle to collapse his passing pocket...the Ravens and Steelers are both much better equipped for the task as the Jets lost Jenkins some time ago now...teams try to pressure Brady on the edges with blitzes, but coming from the edge takes 1 extra second and that is all the time Brady needs to find the match-up he wants to exploit and deliver the football...the last time that Brady threw an INT I still had hopes for the Dolphins season...that was a l o n g time ago...that is bad news for the Gotham Green as they only forced 12 INT's all season long

When The Jets have the ball...

Of the 4 remaining teams in the AFC the Jets with Mark Sanchez have the worst QB...I would not say Sanchez is bad, and I would not say he did not take steps forward in 2010, but we would all rank Brady/Flacco/Big Ben ahead of Sanchez...The Jets coaching staff credit Sanchez for the play call at the end of the game on Saturday where he put a good pass on Braylon Edwards...that allowed Nick Folk to kick a much closer Field Goal to win the Colts game...his maturation and his accuracy on that play are both examples of his progression...still, we have said all year if you are going to go into Foxborough to play the Brady Bunch you had better bring your A+ Offense which we said is 30+ points with zero turnovers...Dropped passes were not an issue for the Jets in the Dome, but in frigid Foxborough we could see a different story...there will be multiple times where Sanchez and the passing game will need to convert third-and-long situations leaving Braylon Edwards, Santonio Holmes, and Dustin Keller to go against a poor New England Secondary (only Washington and Houston were worse for yards allowed in 2010)...now to be fair to that Pats Secondary usually teams are forced early in a game to throw a lot vs the Pats D as Tom Terrific normally has one or two TD's on the board before smoke from the pre-game fireworks has even cleared out so we can cut them some slack...the numbers are very bad, but it does seem to be a unit that is improving...For me the Jets will have to really rely on the running game to beat the Pats...New E allows 4.2 yards per carry and Ladanian Tomlinson needs to have a similar day to the one he had on Wild Card Weekend ie 2 TD's...the guy I will say is the key on Sunday is Shonn Greene...do we see similar talent give-or-take between Ray Rice and Greene?  Well then let's remember the 83 yard TD scamper on the games first play 1 year ago from the day I write this (Jan 10, 2010) to stun the Pats, and stun the crowd...before anyone could catch their breath from that play the Ravens had added another TD and 5 minutes into that game, at New England by the way, the Ravens led 14-0 and they never looked back...If this game plan by the Jets O is standard and isn't planning to try to get Greene multiple touches then I can't see anything but a Pats blowout W...Greene ran for just 2 TD's all season...I think he needs 2 TD's this game alone to have the Jets competitive in this one


MONSTER season for Jerod Mayo
For New England their starting CB's are both young and banged up...2nd year CB Kyle Arrington and rookie CB Devin McCourty (2nd in the NFL with 7 INT's) will be hoping that inclimate weather can assist them in stifling the Jets passing game...Strong Safety Brandon Meriweather is in his 4th season and he is actually the veteran of this young Secondary...the play maker on D is ILB Jerod Mayo...Mayo's 175 tackles were 15 more than any one else in the NFL (wow)...OLB Rob Ninkovich has come on lately too...
All-in-all it seems to me like Baltimore and Pitt have legit chances to beat this Pats team...the Jets just do not seem to me like a roster that can beat Tom Terrific et al...

Baltimore Ravens @ Pittsburgh Steelers

When Baltimore has the ball...

Can Joe Flacco get the passing game going?!?!
Ravens Offensive Coordinator Cam Cameron (Head Coach of Miami's 1-15 2007 season) says that in practice everything is on point and the potential is obvious and real, but the O has been pedestrian for 5+ weeks at this point...the good news for the passing game was the 256 yards Joe Flacco put up @ KC, but what remains troubling to me is the lack of production throwing to the WR's...Anquan Boldin was brought in to be the guy to make the big catches for this team...he was solid with 5 catches, one for a TD vs KC, but T.J. Houshmandzadeh and Derrick Mason each had only 1 catch...Flacco did his damage with TE Todd Heap (10 catches...108 yards) and Ray Rice caught 5 passes and moved the chains through the passing game...finding that kind of success over the middle by using RB's and TE's in the passing game is very difficult vs Pitt...I am troubled by the thought that Baltimore has a struggling passing game currently, and @ Pittsburgh with that crowd and that D is hardly the cure for what ails you...as a road team in the playoffs we know you need to have a good game rushing the football, but Rice and Willis McGahee will likely have their biggest moments when they are called on to stay in the backfield to protect the QB...any whiffs by would-be blockers on any of the numerous Blittsgurgh QB pressures will result in multiple sacks of Flacco, and/or turnovers...(side note - do Bills fans notice that on Division Weekend both Willis McGahee and Marshawn Lynch will be in action for their respective teams?!?!)...for me Cam Cameron has to find a way to allow for Ray Rice to have the type of game where he gets multiple touches on the ground and through the air...

This Pittsburgh D is #1 for fewest points allowed per game (14.5) and #1 for fewest rushing yards allowed per game (this team allows an average of only 62.8 yards per game...wow)...they run a 3-4 base D (as does Baltimore, New E, and the Jets)...this team has slightly more INT's than Baltimore, and way more Forced Fumbles and Fumble Recoveries...the unit is banged up...really at this time of the year for any team that is par for the course...Troy Polamalu is on the same level as far as controlling a game with talent and intelligence as guys like Tom Brady and Peyton Manning are known to be on the Offensive side...ILB's James Farrior and Lawrence Timmons are healthier perhaps than most on this unit and they will have to control how much of a factor Todd Heap is over the middle - and Ray Rice out of the backfield...a big game is likely needed this weekend from S Ryan Clark...we know the key guys will be Polamalu and OLB James Harrison and the havoc they wreak on a regular basis

When Pittsburgh has the ball...

New BFF
This O-Line is anchored by a rookie centre in Maurkice Pouncey, an underrated story this year...Pouncey made the Pro Bowl as a rookie this season...he hands off to Big Ben Roethlisberger who put up 3,200 passing yards with 17 TD's vs just 5 INT's despite being suspended by the NFL for games 1 through 4...for years Big Ben has had a rhythm and timing with WR Hines Ward, but lately he has found a new BFF in WR Mike Wallace...Wallace will get multiple opportunities to run deep routes in any game with his 4.33 speed...Mewelde Moore will be back from injury, plus rookie WR Emanual Sanders also contributes to the passing game...of course we know how good TE Heath Miller is...Miller and Ward are both great at adding to the running game as blockers too...the man they are blocking for is Rashard Mendenhall...the 1,273 rushing yards with 13 TD's looks really good, but his 3.9 yards per carry average is down from last season when he romped for 4.6...for me 3.9 is good, not great...we mentioned how the RB's will be put in critical spots for Baltimore as far as pass protection and picking up the blitzes - same thing to be said here about Mendenhall, and from time to time Isaac Redman...the Steelers will be wary of where Ed Reed is at all times...they know if they do not allow him to get a turnover then they have a great chance for a home W

STILL on another level

Speaking of Reed there is a question as to how effective he will be on Saturday as he is with his family this week in Louisiana attending to a situation where his younger brother jumped into the Mississippi River last Friday as he was running from the police and he has not yet been found...the one thing though is that Reed knows this D, and knows this Steelers O inside and out so he shouldn't be too far behind the game plan this week as far as X's and O's go...this Ravens D is Top 5 in points allowed per game (16.9) and rushing yards allowed per game (93.9)...future Hall Of Fame LB Ray Lewis is the inspirational leader of this unit...at 35 years old his 139 tackles led the team, and were his most in the last 6 seasons...Lewis had a Sack and a Forced Fumble in their Wild Card win @ KC...the entire D surrendered just 161 yards to KC...OLB Terrell Suggs is back on the map as a bad-ass s.o.b...he had 11 Regular Season Sacks, plus 2 more @ KC...Suggs said earlier this week that the Baltimore-Pittsburgh rivalry is "definitely Armageddon"...Strong Safety Dawan Landry had a great season, but his INT vs KC last week was his first INT of the year

NFC Divisional Weekend blog to follow soon... craig.ballard@hotmail.com

Saturday, January 8, 2011

Roberto Alomar

On July 24, 2011 the greatest Toronto Blue Jays player ever (IMO) will be inducted in to the MLB Hall Of Fame...

Alomar in his early days...1988
 In 1985 the Toronto Blue Jays were lead by Manager Bobby Cox and a roster that included Jays greats like Bell, Barfield, Moseby, Upshaw, Whitt, Stieb and was owned by Labatts Breweries...that was the year that the Jays made their first ever trip to the postseason...it was also the first season of pro ball for Roberto Alomar...by the 1986 season Robbie was already winning minor league batting titles and was getting on the map as a big time prospect...this was all in the San Diego Padres organization, and Robbie made his MLB debut as a Padre in 1988...it was early in his career, but Alomar was already creating a rep as a slick fielding second baseman who had a flare for robbing hits, especially up the middle...

2 years later in 1990 Jays GM (and fellow 2010 Hall Of Fame inductee) Pat Gillick pulled the trigger on a trade that would alter the future of the Jays...out were fan favs Tony Fernandez and Fred McGriff, and in was Joe Carter and Roberto Alomar (I remember a lot of initial criticism for Gillick making this move)...this was now a Jays team with a new home (Skydome having opened the season prior) and a new nucleus...hard to believe that Alomar played for 6 teams after his 5 year stint as a Jay, but it was his time spent north of the border that established him as a legit star, and a legit Hall Of Fame candidate...

In his career Robbie was a 12 time All Star including all 5 years with the Jays...10 time Gold Glove winner including all 5 years with the Jays...2 time World Series Champ and we know those were both with the Jays...Alomar's career #'s are Hall worthy... .300 career batting average (.307 as a Jay which is the Club record) - 2,724 hits - 210 HR's - 474 stolen bases (82% success rate as a Jay)  - despite usually hitting in the #2 slot in the batting order Robbie still amassed 1,134 RBI's...Robbie hit for average, pretty good power, drove in runs, scored runs, stole bases, even hit from both sides of the plate...pretty much the entire package...
 
Alomar strrreeetched out to rob a basehit - standard procedure for him
Of course all of that speaks to what a dynamic offensive threat Robbie was, but Alomar made his name on the defensive side of things...new and "modern" ways of evaluating defenders with advanced defensive metrics show that Alomar was actually not a very good defender...I call on you to ignore any of that and just recall your memories...there is no formula, no metrics, no info when it comes to your memories...can any stat on earth show you that Robbie was an average defender?!?!  I bet it can't...even looking at these advanced metrics I still cannot be swayed even slightly that Alomar was not as good as I ever saw at his position...but for me the real testament to Robbie's brilliance would be to ask any pitcher that took the mound with Robbie as his 2nd baseman and ask them if they literally thanked God again and again for the human vacuum at 2nd that protected them from base hits up the middle, that protected them from base hits sneaking into right field past the first baseman, that turned seemingly impossible double-play after double-play...sometimes stats tell the accurate story, every now and then stats do not do us any justice, and any stat that takes away from Robbie's D seems invalid to me as I know what I saw day-in/day-out for 5 years as a Jay, and years after that too
To be Inducted a player needs to recieve 75% of the votes tallied by the voters from the Baseball Writers' Association of America...in 2010 (Robbie's first year of Hall eligibility) Alomar recieved 73.65% of the 75% needed to get in...this year he recieved 90% (I still ask what the other 10% are smoking/thinking/doing)...As a Jays fan, and as a passionate baseball fan I remain outraged at the 2010 Induction votes that kept Robbie out 1 year...For any Hall Of Fame voter who left Alomar off the ballot last year shame on you...the consensus thinking is that this was a result of the spitting incident with Umpire John Hirshbeck in 1997...if so then I really say shame on you voters...A) why do you think it is your duty here to have some sort of moral stand on an incident that happened 13+ years ago?!?!  and B) is there anyone out there holding you to your mistakes of the past and not allowing well deserved honours to be bestowed to you?!?!  and furthermore C) have you done any research into the aftermath of that incident?!?!  Both men should be praised for the work and support each has done for the other persons charities over these 13+ years...a TON of good came out of that incident and to have so much good come from that is a testiment to both Alomar and Hirshbeck as friends, but really speaks to who they are as quality people...

Robbie celebrates after hitting THE HR
My fav Roberto Alomar moment is likely one we all have as a fav, or at least one we all remember fondly...October 11, 1992 Game 4 in the AL playoffs vs the Oakland A's...Jays lead the series 2-1 but the A's used a 5 run 3rd inning off Jack Morris to have a 6-1 lead going into the 8th inning...the Jays would rally for 3 runs in the 8th to make the score 6-4 Oakland...the 8th inning rally was snuffed out when the A's brought in the unhittable Dennis Eckersley and Eck struck out Ed Sprague to end the rally...Eck pumped his fist at Sprague and the Jays dugout...I have personally had Devon White, Rich Hacker (third base coach for that team) and Pat Hentgen tell me the story of that moment and I get shivers every time...they all speak about as complete calm and confidence the team had even as Eck was showing them up to end the top of the 8th...they all said the team grabbed their gloves and headed out to defend thebottom of the 8th, and to a man all were saying "we are going to get this guy"...the guy of course was Dennis Eckersley and the get came courtesy of Robbie's game-tying 2 run HR off of Eck in the 9th that sent the game to extra innings (the celebration pose at home plate as he watched the ball disappear into the right field bleechers  is pictured here, and is also the silhouette for his clothing line Second 2 None... http://www.second2nonewear.com/ )...the Jays would score in the 11th to win Game 4 with a 7-6 final and take a commanding 3-1 series lead...2 games later the Jays were in their first ever World Series and Robbie was a major part of that...thank you Robbie!

The MLB Hall Of Fame is the Hall Of Fame and as a Jays fan this year is particularly special as Gillick and Alomar will have the Induction Ceremony get a great Canadian feel to it


Robbie at the mic after Spencer's speech in St Marys
 Robbie was already inducted into the Canadian Baseball Hall Of Fame (located in St Marys Ontario...BIG UP to St Marys Ontario!!!) and his Induction speech was written and given by Spencer Miller..Spencer is the host of the weekly sports show I am on called Sounding Offf with Spencer Miller (on thatchannel.com live every Thursday from 4-5pm or you can check the podcasts) and as a longtime Alomar friend he is also doing the Cooperstown speech which is awesome...

Finally there will be a Blue Jays player in Cooperstown and I am so proud and excited...CATCH THE TASTE!!!

craig.ballard@hotmail.com

Wednesday, January 5, 2011

Wild Card Weekend Sunday games

Baltimore @ KC...The Chiefs are a surprise entry into the 2010 Super Bowl tourney...we looked at this team in depth early in the year and we marvelled at the young talent, plus the fact that they got to play not only AFC West teams, but their crossover Division was the putrid NFC West (they went 4-0 vs the NFC West)...the Chiefs re-established Arrowhead as a top stadium as far as home field advantage goes...7-1 at home this year with the only loss coming in a meaningless Week 17 game vs Oakland...there is some issue here with these #'s though...only once (Week 1 vs San Diego) did the Chiefs beat a team with a winning record...at a gaudy 12-4 the Ravens certainly qualify as a team with a winning record...despite the Steelers losing Big Ben Roethlisberger for games 1 through 4 Pitt still finished with an identical 12-4 record, but had a better Division record at 5-1 than did Baltimore at 4-2 (Week 2 loss @ Cincy and Week 13 loss to Pitt are the reasons Baltimore is even playing on Wild Card Weekend instead of at home resting as the #2 seed)


Ngata and Lewis...aggressive...good
 Sporting a robust 167 yards per game on the ground the KC Chiefs are the best rushing attack in the NFL...they will meet the top 5 rush D of the Baltimore Ravens...this is strength vs strength...the Ravens strength is Haloti Ngata, Ray Lewis, Ed Reed, Dawan Landry up the middle vs what KC brings to the table which is great RB play from Jamaal Charles (1,467 yards) and Thomas Jones (896)...Baltimore has their running game as a weapon too with Ray Rice, but they need the passing game to get re-established...

QB Joe Flacco has 24 TD's vs just 5 INT's in his last 14 games, but the last 3 games have seen him throw for well under 200 yards each time...Flacco is at his best when he is spreading the ball throughout talented players like Anquan Boldin, Todd Heap, T.J. Houshmandzadeh, Derrick Mason, and when he gets Ray Rice catches too then the Ravens can really move the ball...For KC the receiving threats are not nearly as deep...Dwayne Bowe might be the best WR on Arrowhead field this Sunday, but the drop off after him is significant...Chris Chambers has been in and out of the starting spot and has had very little production...rookie TE Tony Moeaki is respectable, but his 3 TD's tie him with Jamaal Charles for second on the team...Bowe is first with 15 TD's...you see what I mean about drop off...add to that the fact that Bowe and fellow Pro Bowl Guard Brian Waters will not practise this week due to illness, and may not even be able to play on Sunday

Ultimately I believe that the Ravens will do a good enough job vs the KC running attack to force situations - plural - where Chiefs QB Matt Cassell (27 TD's...7 INT's) will have to make a play...that seems like a recipe for a forced pass that gets deflected by the ball-hawking Ravens D and ends up in the hands of Ed Reed...Jamaal Charles has never faced a D that will be as ferocious as this Ravens D will be this Sunday...as a result I can see the Ravens D forcing multiple fumbles too

Prediction...Baltimore 27 KC 13



Aaron Rogers vs Mike Vick
 Green Bay @ Philly...now I am just writing these blogs in order of game time, but could it be that the best is saved for last?!?!  Two intriguing teams square off Sunday night...the redemption story of Michael Vick and the Eagles (10-6) vs the last team to qualify for the playoffs, the Green Bay Packers (10-6)

Vick had a Pro Bowl season, but there is concern with his play as the League may be catching up to Vick...witness the #'s...0 INT's during his first 7 games when he was the toast of the NFL, but 6 INT's in the last 5 games, plus his completion percentage has dropped each of the last 4 weeks...we saw how marvelous he was in the last 7 minutes of that New York Giants W, but we saw how pedestrian he looked on Tuesday Night Football vs the Vikings...Vick rested his thigh bruise that he sustained in that Vikings game as he sat out the meaningless Week 17 game vs Dallas...he is vowing to be 100%, and more good news for Eagles fans as it appears that WR DeSean Jackson and CB Asante Samuel will be "good to go" according to Head Coach Andy Reid

On the other side of the ball we have Aaron Rodgers...Rodgers missed a game this season due to concussion or he would have amassed 4,000+ passing yards for the third straight year...that concussion was a result of Rodgers scrambling for several yards then sliding poorly and getting the brunt of a second hit (this one was to the back of his head) as he hit the ground awkwardly...the O-Line did a measurably better job in 2010 keeping Rogers upright than in 2009...sacks were down from 50 to 31...they face an Eagles D that is not as vaunted as units past...middle of the pack in most categories, but just #21 in the NFL for points allowed...Rogers lost his running game Week 1 in a 27-20 win @ Philly when RB Ryan Grant was lost for the season with a wrecked ankle...they also only got 5 games from stud-in-the-making TE Jermichael Finley...but Rodgers has rhythm and timing with Greg Jennings (1,265 Rec yards plus 12 TD's), plus the ageless Donald Driver to go with James Jones and Jordy Nelson...


Green Bay may not have an answer for LeSean McCoy

This looks like a game where the team whose big play guy makes the big play wins...for me that is DeSean Jackson vs Greg Jennings...both outstanding WR's...both Pro Bowlers...both game-changers...both will have their hands full as Jackson will have Charles Woodson to contend with, while Jennings has to deal with a healthy Asante Samuel...I see a potential wash here, but Philly canstill add LeSean McCoy (leading rusher and leading receiver for the Eagles) and of course Vick as guys who can beat you in multiple ways for big plays...

Prediction...too much big play potential for Philly...Eagles 27 Packers 17

Saturdays games are in the blog below... craig.ballard@hotmail.com

Wild Card Weekend...Saturday games


Sean Peyton & Pete Carroll
 New Orleans @ Seattle...on paper this is about as big a mis-match as is even possible for a playoff game in any sport...the Seahawks are the NFC West champs and are the only playoff team ever with a losing record (7-9), while the Saints won 11 games but thanks to the 12 W's by Division foe Hotlanta the Saints go marching in to the playoffs as a Wild Card team...

Defending Super Bowl Champs vs worst Division Champ ever...

No playoff team allows more yards per game than do the 'Hawks...no team in the NFC allows fewer yards per game than do the Saints...

No playoff team allows more points per game than do the Seahawks...

Seattle rushes for a horrible average of 3.7 yards per carry...both teams were bad at scoring TD's via the running game (Seattle 13 rushing TD's while New Orleans a terrible 9 rushing TD's)...the Saints got #1 RB Chris Ivory back last week, but an injury has now ended his season, and late word is the season is also over for RB Pierre Thomas leaving RB Reggie Bush and RB Julius Jones to carry the ball...New Orleans rushed for 94 yards per game (4th worst in the League) while Seattle gets only 89 rushing yards per game (2nd worst in the League)

The passing game is where the separation of these two offenses really gets big...Drew Brees vs either Matt Hasselbeck or Charlie Whitehurst...Brees and the Saints complete passes at a higher completion rate than any team in the NFL, while the Seahawks are in the bottom third of most passing categories (bottom 5 in several categories)...

Seattle WR Mike Williams is an under-the-radar great story in 2010 IMO...former Detroit 1st round pick in 2005 (#10 overall...remember the Matt Millen years in Detroit when he drafted WR after WR in the 1st round and only Calvin Johnson worked out?!?!) leads the 'Hawks with 65 catches for 751 yards after being out of the NFL since 2007...Williams was a star at USC under current Seahawks coach Pete Carroll and he has found success in Seattle

The Saints spread the ball around with Pro Bowl QB Drew Brees...Marques Colston got 1,000+ receiving yards and Lance Moore and Robert Meachem get their share of catches too...add TE's Jeremy Shockey and Jimmy Graham, plus of course Reggie Bush and Devery Henderson and we see a lot of options for the uber talented Brees to spread the football too...

The Saints Secondary is a top 5 unit, while the Seahawks is bottom 5

This is the game in Wild Card Weekend where all the trends/stats/rosters significantly favour one side....Seattle's crowd gives them a great home field advantage as they cause more false starts for their opponents than any other stadium, but that is unlikely enough to de-rail the Saints attack...


Prediction...New Orleans wins 34-13




Loudmouth Jackass vs calm...cool..collected
 New York Jets @ Indianapolis...rematch of last years AFC Title game...a game that the Colts won to get into the Super Bowl, yet the Jets remember that they led the game at halftime only to get Peyton Manning-ed in the 2nd half...

As per usual the loudmouthed jackass Rex Ryan is making statements etc that put him as the lead story in a Jets game, but Ryan will not throw a pass, rush for any yards, or make any tackles so let's look at the people who are actually important here... 

Peyton Manning vs Mark Sanchez...no team threw for more yards than the Colts, while only the KC Chiefs had less passing yards than the Jets amongst AFC playoff teams in 2010...

Manning usually is amazing at passing the football, but this season he was amazing with names like Dallas Clark Anthony Gonzalez, and Austin Collie out of action...Reggie Wayne and Pierre Garcon have been good, bordering on great for Manning, and the team has had contributions from Practise Squad players like Jacob Tamme, Blair White, plus little used guys like Donald Brown, Javarris James, Brandon James, and Mike Hart...

The Jets made upgrades to their WR unit by adding Braylon Edwards during 2009, and then trading for Santonio Holmes in 2010...they also added LaDanian Tomlinson to add a RB for Sanchez that is adept at catching the check-down passes out of the backfield...that talent goes with TE Dustin Keller to give Sanchez options and weapons...the main issue with the passing game on Saturday is likely the health oh Mark Sanchez's throwing shoulder...

The Jets D does not resemble the shut-down unit they were in 2009, but the stats are still promising as they rank #3 in total yards allowed...#6 vs the pass and #8 sacks...all of that bodes well vs the Colts who have a poor running game (only Washington, Arizona, and Seattle had worse running attacks in 2010) and as we know will rely on Peyton to carry the day...

Only the KC Chiefs have a better running game than the Jets (for teams who made the playoffs) while no playoff team defended the run as poorly as the Colts did...


Super Bowl III rematch...Broadway Joe Super Bowl
 The Jets were very good with 40 Sacks, while the Colts got a middle-of-the-pack 30 Sacks...but the Colts only allowed their QB to get sacked an amazing 16 times (best in the NFL...by contrast the worst was Chicago who allowed 56)

My prediction here is the team with the fewest dropped passes wins the game...I will predict that Indy will have fewer dropped passes and thus win the game...Prediction - 23-16 Colts win

Sunday's games to soon follow... craig.ballard@hotmail.com

Monday, January 3, 2011

2011 for Raps and Jays

In the East we would all agree that Boston, Orlando, Miami, Hotlanta, Chicago, New York, and Milwaukee (once the Bucks get healthy) are better than YOUR TORONTO RAPTORS...we would also all agree that simple math tells us that is 7 teams...8 will qualify for the playoffs...


The Raps will earn the 8th and final spot if...
  • they can get healthy...Starters Andrea Bargnani, Sonny Weems, Jose Calderon, Ed Davis, Reggie Evans, and bench players like Linas Kleiza, Leandro Barbosa, Jerryd Bayless, and Peja Stojakovic have all missed time due to injury (many are currently m.i.a)...the only 2 Raps available to Jay Triano for all 33 games so far have been 2nd year SG DeMar DeRozan and 2nd year Raptor PF Amir Johnson...to compare we will look at the top teams...San Antonio (best record in the Association) has 6 players who have played every single game...even the East leading Celtics, who have had a ton of injuries (especially if you add up the weight!) have had 5 guys go every game...the Raps were going to struggle anyway being that this is a brand new roster, but to have the amazing # of injuries further pushes back any learning or gelling together curve...
  • they can improve on their retched 4-12 Road record...the 3 teams directly in front of them in the standings currently are Philly, Detroit, and Charlotte who are all also brutal on the Road so the Raps can gain ground on those teams if their play in the United States improves (and overseas play...see Important 2011 Raptors Dates below)...
  • Brian Colangelo uses the approx $12 mill remaining in the Trade Exception the Raps received back in the Chris Bosh trade to add an asset...part of that Exception was already used to bring in Jarryd Bayless, but with the Trade Deadline now under 2 months away teams will become more and more active looking to trade players
  • The Raps can catch up to the learning curve that Philly, Indiana, Charlotte are on currently...coaching changes in Philly and Charlotte have veteran coaches like Doug Collins and Paul Silas in, while veteran Jim O'Brien in his 4th year with the Pacers and has a new PG to work with in Darren Collison which has the Pacers playing well enough to be the #8 seed in the East
The Raps have made the playoffs just 5 times in their 15+ year history...11-20 record in the playoffs...

Important 2011 Raps dates...

Friday Jan 14 - home vs Detroit

Wed Jan 26 - home vs Philly

Mon Jan 31 @ Indiana

Tues Feb 22 @ Charlotte

Toronto Raptors vs New Jersey Nets March 4 and 5 at the O2 Arena in London, England (the same venue that has hosted several NBA preseason games over years)...how will the Raps look on the World stage?!?!

Friday March 11 through Wednesday March 16 the Raps play 3 crucial games...home vs Indy...home vs Charlotte...@ Detroit

Sunday March 20 through Saturday March 26 an UGLY looking West Coast trip sees 5 games in 7 nights

14 games listed here and I believe the Raps make the playoffs as a #8 seed if they get 9 of those games in the W column...if the injury bug continues to plague the Raps though then the short term W's may not be there leaving the Raps to perhaps need to win 10+ of those games...tall order, but a healthy Raps squad has a chance

February 24, 2011...NBA Trade Deadline...Raps are sure to be active

April 16, 2011...NBA playoffs begin

June 23, 2011...NBA Entry Draft...will the Raps (again) be in the lottery?!?!



My name is Craig Ballard and I am a Jays fan...no this is not another AA meeting (Alex Anthopoulos) but we will take a look at what 2011 may look like for YOUR TORONTO BLUE JAYS...


The Jays will qualify for post season play in 2011 for the first time since 1993 if...

  • Brandon Morrow and Ricky Romero can solidify themselves as legit 1-2 punch in the AL East...also Brett Cecil and Kyle Drabek will have to continue to leap ahead of their learning curve and start to dominate every 5th day...that leaves any of Jesse Litsch, Brad Mills, Dustin McGowan, or Marc Rzepczynski as the #5 starter and whoever it is will have to be lights-out in a Division that was already potent, and just added Adrian Gonzalez, Derrick Lee, Mark Reynolds, Russell Martin
  • Octavio Dotel saves 30+ games...out is 32 year old Closer Kevin Gregg and in is 37 year old Octavio Dotel...also David Purcey and/or Jesse Carlson have to fill the void left by Scott Downs/Brian Tallet from the left side, plus Jason Frasor, Casey Janssen, and Shawn Camp have to pick up the slack from the right side with Kevin Gregg gone...
  • the man catching for all of the above will be J.P. Arencibia...J.P. became the first player in decades to have 4 hits (2 of them HR's) in his MLB debut and he was named Pacific Coast League (AAA) MVP last season...J.P. will have to prove he can hit at this level consistently
  • a similar season from Jose Bautista is crucial...50 HR's may not be needed/realistic but 40+ is essential
  • the teams #1 hitter cannot hit just .273 like Vernon Wells did this season...multiple .290+ hitters are required and 3 of them have to be named Escobar, Hill, and Lind...
  • in the last month of the 2009 season Jose BautistaEncarnacion belting multiple HR's and the Jays desperately need production from the Third Base spot so he must contribute
  • Travis Snider has to show a full season of his skills...no injuries...no holes in his swing...Snider will be 23 when the season starts and it IS time for him to produce to his lofty potential
  • either Rajai Davis or Corey Patterson takes the opportunity here in Canada and run with it...both will get the chance to be the everyday lead-off hitter for this team in Spring Training and both will have the shot that the Jays gave Fred Lewis last season which is to play an Outfield spot and lead-off every day with the insistence on being a base-stealing threat...Anthony Gose waits in the wings for his shot to be that guy too...

Important 2011 Jays dates...

Feb. 25: Mandatory Spring Training report date for everyone

April fools day 2011...Jays open their season on this day vs the Twins

May 20, 2011...Interleague play starts for the Jays...traditionally the Jays have struggled vs the NL teams in Interleague play

early-mid June 2011 - MLB Draft...AA was very impressive in his initial MLB Draft in 2010, especially when it came to stockpiling young high-upside arms into the organization, and 2011 should be the same thing...

July 12: 2011 All-Star Game at Chase Field in Phoenix, AZ...the Jays will need approx 3-4 players on the All Star team if they are going to contend for the post-season

July 31: 2011 MLB Trade Deadlines for non-waiver players...if the Jays are truly in contention then for the first time in years they will be buyers at the annual Trade Deadline...

How was your New Years?!?! drop me a line... craig.ballard@hotmail.com