NBA fans rejoice...The b-ball Gods have smiled on us again...Twice in the last 3 seasons we have been treated to Celtics-Lakers rivalry renewed in the Finals...This year we get a 2nd Round match-up that has the hype and potential worthy of a NBA Finals
On June 28, 2007 the Boston Celtics traded Delonte West, Wally Szczerbiak, and #5 overall pick (Jeff Green) to the Seattle Super Sonics (remember them?!) for Ray Allen (Big Baby Glen Davis also came to Boston in that deal so damn fine deal for ex-Jays player Danny Ainge)...July 31, 2007 the C's traded a record 7 players to Minnesota for Kevin Garnett...Jesus Shuttleworth aka Ray Allen and KG became teammates with resident Celtic Paul Pierce and the original Big 3 was created...
July 7, 2010 Chris Bosh and Dwayne Wade go on espn to announce they will be signing and re-signing with the Miami Heat...July 8, 2010 LeBron James has his ill-conceived "Decision" show to announce he is taking his talents to South Beach...The backlash creates the Miami Hate...New Big 3 is created
As fans we all hoped the playoff seeding would allow for a meeting of Heat/Celtics and here we go!
Boston was the better team in winning the first 3 regular season match-ups, then Miami laid a beat-down in the 4th and final reg season meeting...That lone Heat win was vs a C's team that was in their usual boredom-mode as the season was winding down...C's are built for the playoffs...Heat are being tested for the first time
Question #1 for the Celtics will be what level can they get to on the defensive end...The C's are down Kendrick Perkins and Tony Allen from previous playoff runs...Those guys were really great fits to the Team D that the C's used to win 2 Eastern Conference Titles, and 1 NBA Title in the past 3 years...This could really sting vs a talent like Dwayne Wade...Ray Allen will need a ton of help with Wade...One thing that the C's do so well on O is run defenders like Wade through multiple physical screens which could help slow him on O...To replace Perkins the Celtics will need Shaq and Nenad Krstic to go with (a hopefully healthy and rejuvenated) Jermaine O'Neal to give depth and consequences in the paint...
On the offensive end the Celtics provide a rare scoring answer to all of Miami's Big 3...Allen can score with Wade...Pierce can score with Bron Bron...KG can score with Bosh...Scoring with any of Miami's Big 3 is a tough task of course, but PP/KG/Jesus Shuttleworth have been putting the ball in the net for ages...The C's eliminated Wade's Heat and LBJ's Cavs in 2010 largely on the strength of the Rajon Rondo coming out party...Rondo was able to dribble anywhere he wanted, and able to create any passing or shooting angle he wanted...That is one of the main reasons I have been confused as to why would Wade and LBJ sign with Miami?Mario Chalmers is the answer to Rajon Rondo?!?! I am underwhelmed by the addition of Mike Bibby too...The key player will be Rondo (ironically not one of the Big 3) and his ability to get Allen, Pierce, and KG the ball in scoring positions, plus his ability to drive past defenders and create in the paint...If Rondo ever adds a jumper to his game he will be unreal
For the Heat you can expect Wade and James to be great every game...A key will be Chris Bosh...The individual CB4 vs KG match-up was won by KG in the 4 regular season games...17 points per game with 9 rebounds per game for KG vs 15 ppg and 8 rpg for Bosh...Miami is getting contributions these days from Canadian Joel Anthony and Zydrunas Ilgauskas, but Bosh has to be better than KG and give the Heat a "win" in that match-up...Bosh's +/- in the losses to Boston this season were brutal...A major wild-card for the Heat frontcourt is the potential return of co-captain Udonis Haslem...In November 2010 Haslem ruptured a ligament in his foot and expects to return for Round 3 (he hopes as early as Round 2)...Haslem is a rare asset on this roster that can hang with the physicality that the C's play with
We will mention the obvious that Wade and James need to be amazing in this series...We will mention the obvious that both are capable of being amazing...It does need to be mentioned that this Heat team got a ton of W's this season by blowing teams out...Their record in close games is a pathetic 6-15 (close game is game decided by 5 or fewer points)...Heat's late game shooting has been bru-tal...We can analyze this series forever, but if the late-game shooting continues on its retched path the Heat will be bounced...The majority of the games in Round 2 going forward will be decided by 5 points or less...The Heat's chance to blow out the C's is if they can get Mario Chalmers to stay hot...Chalmers, and guys like James Jones and Mike Miller, will have to significantly contribute from 3-ball land to give the Heat enough spread to open a lead that would knock out the Celtics...The playoff/let's dominate switch seems to have been flicked ON again for Doc Rivers and his crew so the Heat need to understand that a complete team effort will be required to win 4 games before Boston can
On the defensive end the Heat will likely see a lot of guys playing out of position...This is because they will not be able to survive to even a Game 6 if they just have Chalmers and Bibby to deal with Rondo...Multiple looks will be required using multiple players to try to slow Rondo...The actual defender on RR is only the beginning, the 4 other defenders better accorder une attention aussi...Especially the big men as RR is able to beat any defender off the dribble and penetrate into the lane for passes and kick-outs to open shooters so guys like Bosh, Anthony, Big Z (and perhaps Haslem) need to be alert and ready/able to close on that shooter to contest the open shots that RR creates...The other reason that Heat players will play out of position is that this team will surely need Mike Miller to score and contribute to win this series...Miller plays both the SF and SG positions which of course are spoken for by D-Wade and LeBron James so when the Heat want or require all 3 on the floor adjustments have to made on the D end
These 2 teams both have brutal benches...I would say that when Jeff Green comes off the Boston bench he is the only sub that has a chance to significantly impact any game...Each team has specialists off the bench like Dampier (interior D and 6 fouls to give) Miller/Jones/Eddie House (3-balls) for the Heat and O'Neal/Krstic (size) plus Glen Davis (scoring and effort) for Boston, but only Green has the potential to contribute on both ends of the floor
Nothing to compare with the coaches...Doc Rivers has been amazing these past 3 years and will be in heavy demand after he retires from the C's, while Erik Spoelstra will not be in South Beach for much longer and when he is dismissed he will not be in demand at all...Complete opposites here...
Ultimately the C's may need their Big 3, plus Rondo, plus maybe even one or both of the O'Neal's to win this series, but I do them getting this done...Celtics in 6
craig.ballard@hotmail.com
follow me on twitter @craigballard77
@craigballard77
Thursday, April 28, 2011
Sunday, April 17, 2011
Raps summer 2011
We have looked in previous blog entries at the miserable job Raptors GM Bryan Colangelo has done with this roster...Mistake after mistake for BC and his staff...The result is a roster going forward that has too much youth, and too little up-side...The core is Bargnani (25), DeMar DeRozan (22), Ed Davis (21), Amir Johnson (23), James Johnson (24), and Jerryd Bayless (22)...Linas Kleiza (26) could perhaps also be a Raptors player/contributor going forward...I see a lot of potential pieces to the puzzle there, but do we see a Superstar capable of leading this franchise to the play-offs annually?!? Likely not...
Sonny Weems and Reggie Evans will likely seek employment elsewhere this summer (Weems is a Restricted FA...Evans is an Unrestricted FA), while Leandro Barbosa will surely exercise his Player Option to remain a Rap for at least 1 more season due to the uncertainty of the new Collective Bargaining Agreement (will there be a season next year?!?! Barbosa cannot chance passing up the $7+ million Players Option for 2011-2012 season as who knows if he can get a # like that in the new CBA)...
Things get even scarier for the Raps Salary Cap in 2012-2013 as they already have $30+ mill in guaranteed salaries for that season with Jose Calderon set to make 10+ mill that season, so is Bargnani...Kleiza and Amir will combine for $10+ mill that season too...That is a lot of guaranteed cash for a lot of question mark players...Even if Bargs improves, and Kleiza and Amir are worthy NBA contributors, the $10+ mill for Calderon is clearly a blunder...That means Jose makes Rajon Rondo/D-Rose $$$ while playing at about 16% of the level those guys play at...blunder...
MLSE has seen Raptors attendance drop every year for several years in a row now so they cannot count on getting extra $$$ from us, they need to work on ways to move some of these contracts as the way to add talent to the roster...
The miserable season we just endured may have a sequel if the Raps are not able to trade either of Bargnani or Calderon...The plan is likely to try and deal both, and have Weems and Evans leave via FA...Lofty goals, but at that point you will have $$$ to spend on FA, or enough wiggle room to involve yourself in a trade(s)...
Here are some FA's that will be available this summer...Do any of them catch your eye for the T-Dot?!?!
Potential Raptors if they cannot clear any further Salary Cap space to what they have now (after paying for the upcoming Draft picks the Raps are likely somewhere in the 5-8 mill range for FA $$$) include -
Glen Davis...A big-man with heart and hustle...Almost like a Reggie Evans, but Davis
can score the ball too
Tyson Chandler...Raps went hard after Chandler in the trade market last summer, and he can surely be a major upgrade to the Raps interior D...
DeAndre Jordan...Jordan is a Restricted FA so the Clippers would have a chance to retain him regardless of any other teams interest...This guy would be a great fit going forward...stud-in-the-making so why not head to Canada and rep an entire Country...
Shane Battier...Could be great veteran fit for this young core, and unlike any current Raps player Battier is a terrific defender...
Marc Gasol...legit NBA C...double-double player
Samuel Dalembert...A Canadian shot-blocker would be a quick fan-fav around here...(side note...speaking of Canadians if Colangelo is still the GM after June 30/11 then expect him to go after Steve Nash via trade, or Nash becomes a FA after next season...Makes way too much sense to have Nash end his career in Canada)
Has Kris Humphries done enough to impress you with the Nets that you would welcome him getting starter minutes in Toronto? It would mean the Kardashian's would be in Toronto much much more which sounds good...
The 76ers have 2 wonderful young big-men set to be Restricted FA's this summer in Thaddeus Young and Spencer Hawes...
Greg Oden...At the right price I would take a chance on Oden...He is a legit 7-footer whose injury issue has been major so we would of course be looking hard at medical reports...Most have written off his career, but 7-foot height cannot be taught so I am not yet willing to write-off this 23 year old
DeShawn Stevenson...He has contributed to Dallas off the bench, and recently getting starter minutes
Nick Young is a wonderful scorer, but is Restricted
If the Raps are successful in trading Calderon or Bargnani (or perhaps both) then that puts these guys on the radar as potential FA signings...
Tayshaun Prince...very consistent scorer
Zach Randolph...Appears to be a major doofus, but he can really score and rebound in the post
Andrei Kirilenko...I am a fan of AK47...I feel he brings a lot to the table...Many dimensions to his game
Aaron Brooks...Restricted FA...With Nash almost done his career it is extremely likely that the Suns made the Dragic-for-Brooks swap with Houston to have Brooks be there PG going forward, but a man can dream can't he?!?!
Rodney Stuckey...One of the more under-the-radar guys in the Association...Horrible 3-point shooter, but he brings just about everything else to the table
Kenyon Martin...K-Mart addresses the need for intensity and effort in the paint
Jamal Crawford...What I love about Jamal is he scores regardless of if he starts, or comes off the bench...Rare to have someone score/produce in any scenario
Wilson Chandler...23 year old scorer who will only get better
Caron Butler...dynamic scorer...I have been a fan of Butler for a while now
Jeff Green...Restricted FA is a scorer
We see a lot of talent here, and I would suggest every name listed would be an upgrade for the Raps...Step one has to be the trade market to see if you can free any additional Cap Space as currently the room to add FA's is not much...Step two is to get your head out of your ass BC and stop giving FA dough to the likes of Jason Kapono, Linas Kleiza, Jamario Moon, Maceo Baston, Will Soloman, and Hassan Adams...
As Raps fans we are left (as usual) to play the wait-and-see game...Let's hope for a great summer of clear roster improvements...Go Raptors Go
craig.ballard@hotmail.com ...follow me on twitter @craigballard77
Sonny Weems and Reggie Evans will likely seek employment elsewhere this summer (Weems is a Restricted FA...Evans is an Unrestricted FA), while Leandro Barbosa will surely exercise his Player Option to remain a Rap for at least 1 more season due to the uncertainty of the new Collective Bargaining Agreement (will there be a season next year?!?! Barbosa cannot chance passing up the $7+ million Players Option for 2011-2012 season as who knows if he can get a # like that in the new CBA)...
Things get even scarier for the Raps Salary Cap in 2012-2013 as they already have $30+ mill in guaranteed salaries for that season with Jose Calderon set to make 10+ mill that season, so is Bargnani...Kleiza and Amir will combine for $10+ mill that season too...That is a lot of guaranteed cash for a lot of question mark players...Even if Bargs improves, and Kleiza and Amir are worthy NBA contributors, the $10+ mill for Calderon is clearly a blunder...That means Jose makes Rajon Rondo/D-Rose $$$ while playing at about 16% of the level those guys play at...blunder...
MLSE has seen Raptors attendance drop every year for several years in a row now so they cannot count on getting extra $$$ from us, they need to work on ways to move some of these contracts as the way to add talent to the roster...
The miserable season we just endured may have a sequel if the Raps are not able to trade either of Bargnani or Calderon...The plan is likely to try and deal both, and have Weems and Evans leave via FA...Lofty goals, but at that point you will have $$$ to spend on FA, or enough wiggle room to involve yourself in a trade(s)...
Here are some FA's that will be available this summer...Do any of them catch your eye for the T-Dot?!?!
Potential Raptors if they cannot clear any further Salary Cap space to what they have now (after paying for the upcoming Draft picks the Raps are likely somewhere in the 5-8 mill range for FA $$$) include -
Glen Davis...A big-man with heart and hustle...Almost like a Reggie Evans, but Davis
can score the ball too
Tyson Chandler...Raps went hard after Chandler in the trade market last summer, and he can surely be a major upgrade to the Raps interior D...
DeAndre Jordan...Jordan is a Restricted FA so the Clippers would have a chance to retain him regardless of any other teams interest...This guy would be a great fit going forward...stud-in-the-making so why not head to Canada and rep an entire Country...
Shane Battier...Could be great veteran fit for this young core, and unlike any current Raps player Battier is a terrific defender...
Marc Gasol...legit NBA C...double-double player
Samuel Dalembert...A Canadian shot-blocker would be a quick fan-fav around here...(side note...speaking of Canadians if Colangelo is still the GM after June 30/11 then expect him to go after Steve Nash via trade, or Nash becomes a FA after next season...Makes way too much sense to have Nash end his career in Canada)
Has Kris Humphries done enough to impress you with the Nets that you would welcome him getting starter minutes in Toronto? It would mean the Kardashian's would be in Toronto much much more which sounds good...
The 76ers have 2 wonderful young big-men set to be Restricted FA's this summer in Thaddeus Young and Spencer Hawes...
Greg Oden...At the right price I would take a chance on Oden...He is a legit 7-footer whose injury issue has been major so we would of course be looking hard at medical reports...Most have written off his career, but 7-foot height cannot be taught so I am not yet willing to write-off this 23 year old
DeShawn Stevenson...He has contributed to Dallas off the bench, and recently getting starter minutes
Nick Young is a wonderful scorer, but is Restricted
If the Raps are successful in trading Calderon or Bargnani (or perhaps both) then that puts these guys on the radar as potential FA signings...
Tayshaun Prince...very consistent scorer
Zach Randolph...Appears to be a major doofus, but he can really score and rebound in the post
Andrei Kirilenko...I am a fan of AK47...I feel he brings a lot to the table...Many dimensions to his game
Aaron Brooks...Restricted FA...With Nash almost done his career it is extremely likely that the Suns made the Dragic-for-Brooks swap with Houston to have Brooks be there PG going forward, but a man can dream can't he?!?!
Rodney Stuckey...One of the more under-the-radar guys in the Association...Horrible 3-point shooter, but he brings just about everything else to the table
Kenyon Martin...K-Mart addresses the need for intensity and effort in the paint
Jamal Crawford...What I love about Jamal is he scores regardless of if he starts, or comes off the bench...Rare to have someone score/produce in any scenario
Wilson Chandler...23 year old scorer who will only get better
Caron Butler...dynamic scorer...I have been a fan of Butler for a while now
Jeff Green...Restricted FA is a scorer
We see a lot of talent here, and I would suggest every name listed would be an upgrade for the Raps...Step one has to be the trade market to see if you can free any additional Cap Space as currently the room to add FA's is not much...Step two is to get your head out of your ass BC and stop giving FA dough to the likes of Jason Kapono, Linas Kleiza, Jamario Moon, Maceo Baston, Will Soloman, and Hassan Adams...
As Raps fans we are left (as usual) to play the wait-and-see game...Let's hope for a great summer of clear roster improvements...Go Raptors Go
craig.ballard@hotmail.com ...follow me on twitter @craigballard77
Thursday, April 14, 2011
NBA Playoff Preview
EAST
#1 Chicago Bulls vs #8 Indiana Pacers
The Bulls flourished in their inaugural season of the Tom Thibodeau era...Longtime readers of the blog will remember last year when we talked about the idea that the Raps should try to hire Thibodeau as he was the next up-an-coming guru...We know they did not try to get Thibodeau (the 2011 result was Raps win 22 games while Chicago won their 22nd game on Jan 1) but ChiTown did and they are reaping the rewards...
62 Bulls W's...9 straight to finish the season...Top seed in the East...Michael Jordan telling Chicago fans they may win another 6 Titles with this current group...It all adds up to wow...A TON of press/attention for the MVP likelihood for Derrick Rose...Marvelous season by Rose...We mentioned a few months ago that we would follow Rose very closely after Kobe made the comments of how impressed he gets with young talent that are advance enough to recognize the areas of improvements needed in their game, and then put in the work in the off-season to improve...Kobe said Rose clearly is worthy of that praise...Now let's understand that Chicago is hardily a one-man show...DEEP squad...The big 3 of Rose, Carlos Boozer, and Luol Deng give the Bulls 50 points per game...Joakim Noah was injured for half of the season, but when healthy he averages a double-double...The role players after those 4 like Taj Gibson, Kyle Korver, Ronnie Brewer, C.J. Watson, Keith Bogans, Omer Asik, and Kurt Thomas all provide skill and depth for the Bulls...This team was wonderful on D under Thibodeau...#2 points allowed...#2 point differential...#1 Field Goal % D... #1 3-point FG% D
The Pacers also enter the playoffs with a first-time Head Coach...Frank Vogel took over for the fired Jim O'Brien on Jan 30/11 and led the team to a 20-18 record to end the season...Danny Granger (who the Raps should have drafted instead of Joey Graham) is a scorer, and the Pacers get 10+ ppg from Darren Collison, Mike Dunleavy, Tyler Hansbrough, and Roy Hibbert...Hibbert also gives the D a boost as a defender at the rim (1.8 blocks per game for the former Raptors draft pick)...Brandon Rush, Paul George, Josh McRoberts, and A.J. Price also provide depth
There are some nice pieces in place going forward for Indiana, but they will surely be overwhelmed by this Bulls team that is deep, and firing on all cylinders...Bulls in 4
#2 Miami Heat vs #7 Philadelphia 76ers
Coming into the 2010-2011 season many wondered if the Heat would surpass the 1995-1996 Bulls record of 72-10...The Heat won 58 games...You know me, I never understood why if you want to win a Championship then how was Miami the team to join for the Big 3?!?! How is Mario Chalmers a Champ PG?!?! How can you get a frontcourt in Miami that will be better than Boston, Chicago, or Orlando?!?! Those questions may not come into play in Round 1, but that doesn't mean we should just sleep on this Sixers squad...
Philly is led by Elton Brand who gave the team a full season for the first time since joining them 3 years ago...Brand leads the O at 15 ppg...After Brand there are an impressive 5 players that average 10+ points per game for Philly...Brand, Andre Iguodala, Jrue Holiday (emerging 2nd year PG), and Jody Meeks (also a good 2nd year Guard) all score for the starting unit, while Thaddeus Young and Louis Williams are fantastic off the bench combining for 25 ppg...Add young C Spencer Hawes, and rookie Evan Turner and we see a lot of young, high-upside talent for this organization going forward...Head Coach Doug Collins (who also should have been given a look by the Raps to run their team) has done a terrific job with Philly, and he gets a lot of help from a great staff with former NBAers like Michael Curry and Aaron McKie, as well as former Marquette and D-Wade coach Quin Snyder...Iguodala is a wonderful perimeter defender and should give Wade and LeBron fits in this series, but of course only one at a time...
That is the thing with the Heat - they will be poor at the PG and C positions, good at the PF spot, but amazing at the SG and SF thanks to Wade and Bron Bron...Of the Big 4 (Miami-Boston-Orlando-Chicago) the Heat may have the toughest test in Round 1 as this Sixers team may be young enough to not understand that they are supposed to lose this series handily...They may be able to provide the Heat with a test...For Heat Head Coach Erik Spoelstra this is an opportunity to show his players that this is a test right out of the gate and get his guys to embrace playoff basketball right away...That may provide a competitive edge for the Heat in Round 2 as they will have survived a battle, while their opponent is possibly dealing with fools gold having easily dispatched an inferior Round 1 opponent...
For the Heat to advance they need to get their last-second blunders figured out...This team was dreadful in the last 10 seconds of games with shots to tie or win a game...This team was also dreadful in games decided by 5 points or less (one the worst in the NBA)...For me the key in this series will be Bosh and the combined play of Zydrunas Ilgauskas, Joel Anthony, and (if he can play) Erick Dampier...The key to beat the Heat is to be great at defending the rim so that you turn them into a jump-shooting team...This 76ers team has a tremendous future, but they are not equipped right now to turn Miami into a one-dimensional jump-shooting team which will ultimately be the difference in this series...Miami in 5
#3 Boston Celtics vs #6 New York Knicks
Wow...Do we see some intrigue folks?!?! Great D vs great O...Boston with original Big 3 in Kevin Garnett, Ray Allen, and Paul Pierce vs the latest Big 3 in Amar'e, Melo, and Chauncey...2 storied franchises...
For the second straight season the Celtics are sleep-walking into the playoffs...The difference to me is the 2010 C's were uninterested until playoff time, while the 2011 C's seem tired and somewhat worn down...Boston was able to turn the switch on last post-season, but that is a dangerous game...The organization brought back Doc Rivers and re-upped with Paul Pierce and Ray Allen all in the name of making another Championship run in '11...The D is still good, but perhaps not great since the trade of Kendrick Perkins...That trade left the C's with a different look, and perhaps to this day they are trying to figure out their identity now...The veterans on the team were devastated by the trade as they understood that Perk was a major contributor to the toughness in the paint their D had become great at...That now falls to Shaq...The big fella has been injured most of the season, but he and Jermaine O'Neal (also injured much of 2011) will need to combine with Nenad Kristic to provide the last line of D for the Celtics...Looks like the best chance is if Shaq can get healthy and give them 25-30 mins per game
For New York the story is on the other end of the floor...The Knicks have to win games by outscoring you in a shoot-out...This team plays zero D...Since their Feb 21/11 trade for Melo the Knicks are a pedestrian 14-14, including 0-2 vs Boston...Head Coach Mike D'Antoni's squad went 3-7 in games with Melo where they did not score 100+ points...That started at 2-0, so they lost 7 of their last 8 games where they did not score at least 100...The Celtics need the game to be 80-something to 80-something, while the Knicks need the game to be played in the 100's to be successful...For the Knicks to be able to impose their will on this series and turn it into a shoot-out they will need much more than their Big 3...Laundry Fields will need to be a scorer in this series , as will guys like Toney Douglas, Bill Walker, and Shawne Williams (all will have to be on fire from 3-point range to have the Knicks be competitive in this series)
Ultimately I will have faith in Celtics ability to get it on the right track for the playoffs...We have seen it before...This is one series that an upset would not shock me to be honest, but I will predict C's in 6
#4 Orlando Magic vs #5 Atlanta Hawks
Many seem to have Orlando as a distant 4th best team in the East, I do not...I like this team a lot...Dwight Howard is the true MVP in the NBA...No other player is as dominant on both ends of the floor as Howard (and the amazing thing is he will get even better)...His activity inside the paint is fantastic...He blocks shots on the regular, but he changes/alters sooo many opponents shots too...The Magic added pieces around D12 on the fly this season with the additions of Jason Richardson, Hedon't Turkoglu, and Gilbert Arenas...A real nice emergence this season was Ryan Anderson who gives the squad 10+ points per game...Anderson, Turkoglu, and J-Rich combine with Jameer Nelson and JJ Redick to give the Magic a ton of shooting options to surround D12...At some point (likely not this series) the likes of Brandon Bass and Earl Clark will have to provide depth for the frontcourt of Orlando vs teams like Boston, Chicago, and Miami...Despite the on-the-fly roster changes Head Coach Stan Van Gundy still had his team play at a high level defensively...Only Boston and ChiTown play better team D than Orlando of any team in the playoffs...
The chance for any team vs Orlando is to have a defender to occupy D12 so you can stay home on Orlando's shooters...The Celtics do that very well for example, but this Hawks team is hardily a similar roster to Boston...Hotlanta gets a lot of athletic scoring from guys like Jamal Crawford, Marvin Williams, Joe Johnson, and Josh Smith...Hawks did take 3 of 4 games vs Orlando this season, but are struggling lately and for me I am disappointed in this team as they took a step back this season (IMO)...In this series Jason Collins will be they guy called on to slow down Dwight Howard, while Kirk Hinrich will be in his first playoffs with the Hawks...Those 2 will need to be huge, plus I think Horford will have to be huge too...1 of (if not both of) Jamal Crawford and Joe Johnson is going to have to be on fire from downtown for the ATL to hang with Orlando...
Too much going for Orlando these days vs not enough going right for Hotlanta these days = Magic in 5
WEST
#1 San Antonio Spurs vs #8 Memphis Grizzles
How do you handicap these Spurs?!?! The first 85% of the season was marvelous for this squad...They do however end the season on a bad 4-8 finish, and have stars like Tim Duncan and Manu Ginobli banged up...Spurs enter the playoffs as the #1 seed in the West despite the poor finish...When the Spurs are healthy they of course are led by their big 3 of Duncan, Manu, and Tony Parker...Those 3 are the veterans and leaders, but this Spurs team is sooo much more...Duncan averaged a lower ppg (13) than ever in his 14 year career, and still the Spurs stacked 61 W's...Guys like George Hill, Richard Jefferson, DeJuan Blair, Gary Neal, Antonio McDyess, and Raptor fan fav Matt Bonner all combine to provide a ton of talent and depth for Gregg Popovich...Truth is if you coach in a time where Phil Jackson coaches then you are going to be #2 at best as Jackson will get all the press...I am a huge admirer of Pop and the job he has done in San Antonio...He is the longest serving Coach in the Association currently, and a 4-time Champion...BIG UP POP...This current squad scores better than you may think, and defends poorer than you may think
On the other bench we have Lionel Hollins leading the Memphis Grizzles to a 46 win season...I would feel so much better about this team if they hadn't lost Rudy Gay recently (out for the season)...They were able to still have a strong season thanks to their depth...Zach Randolph had a fantastic season (averaged 20 ppg and 12 rebounds per game) and Marc Gasol is also a contributor to this team down low...Mike Conley, O.J. Mayo, Sam Young, and Darrell Arthur all contribute to this team, while Tony Allen and Shane Battier lead the D...Memphis went 2-2 vs the Spurs (won the 2 most recent) and scored 100+ points in 3 of those games so this team will have confidence...There are several in fact who believe that the Grizz were not at all displeased to lose their final 2 games thus "dropping" from #7 and a date with the Lakers to #8 vs a Spurs team they feel they can beat...
I cannot get away from wishing Memphis had the minutes and scoring that Gay gives them...without him I would say if we find out that Manu's elbow injury is bad then perhaps Spurs in 6, but other than that Spurs in 5
#2 LosAngeles Lakers vs #7 New Orleans Hornets
The Lakers are an un-inspired 3-5 in April...The 5 loses in fact coming in a row, with 3 of those being at home...Terrible finish...Inexcusable lack of effort, focus, and execution...What is stunning is this all came on the heels of a post-All-Star run that was brilliant...LA was winning game after game with dominant 3rd and 4th Q's as their Championship D was on display...I would have to say that despite the poor finish the board #1 through #8 couldn't look any better for LA...By finishing #2 they avoid any of Portland, Denver, or Oklahoma City in Round 1...They also have 2 rounds to have a team eliminate San Antonio which would give the Lakers Home Court in the Conference Finals...LA also draws the one team where a banged-up Bynum will not be needed/missed...New Orleans is terrible on O, and just lost leading scorer David West for the season so with Kobe, Pau, Lamar, Ron Artest, D-Fish et al the Lakers should have significantly more than enough fire power to outscore the Hornets with or without Bynum...On D we know the Lakers traditionally struggle with quick and talented PG's like Chris Paul...in the 2010 Finals we saw the Lakers put Kobe on the previously unstoppable Rajon Rondo and the result was a success, so perhaps if CP3 can create miracles for the Hornets we may see LA go to that strategy of Kobe guards the PG while D-Fish and Steve Blake guard the SG...Last years Round 1 was a 4-2 good series (especially last 4 games) vs OK City...The Lakers would love dearly to advance with more ease this season...The 3-time defending Western Conference Champs have played a lot of basketball games over the past 3 years and do not want to add unnecessary wear and tear by allowing this series to get lengthy
The Hornets have Paul, and can defend very well as a unit, but they are out manned in this series...Carl Landry is a guy that will have to be big for this team, especially with the loss of West...Paul and Marco Belinelli will have to be on fire from 3-point range to give the Hornets a shot at any game in this series...Trevor Ariza will surely need to score more than his season average of 11 points per game...Emeka Okafor has to be a beast down low...
We see a Lakers team that does not need to be at 100% to beat this Hornets team...And we have a Hornets team that needs their guys to all be at 120% due to already being outclassed plus losing David West...Tooooo much to like here for LA despite sloppy recent play...Lakers sweep
#3 Dallas Mavericks vs #6 Portland Trail Blazers
I was really surprised in this past off-season when the Mavs kept Jason Kidd, Dirk Nowitzki, and Jason Terry...This team has been bounced in Round 1 of the playoffs 3 of the last 4 seasons and I figured Mark Cuban was not going to have a sense of humor about that, thus trades were coming...not so...The Mavs re-signed Brendan Haywood, and continued to build around Disco Dirk and The Jet by adding the likes of Tyson Chandler, and on-the-fly moves like Peja Stojakovic and Corey Brewer...Dallas gets contributions from Rodrigue Beaubois, Jose Juan Barea, and DeShawn Stevenson too...I would feel much better about the Mavs if they hadn't lost Caron Butler to injury...There are a lot of pieces here to like and if they had the creative/multi-dimensional scorer that Butler is to go with it all I would like this team much more than I do...If this team gets tossed in Round 1 for a 4th time in 5 years we will surely look for the Mavs to blow up the roster this summer...Head Coach Rick Carlisle has this team playing team D at a very high level, including The Matrix Shawn Marion
The Trail Blazers are a roster just coming together...Brandon Roy is just getting back to 100% health and game speed, while Gerald Wallace is getting more and more comfortable in his role with Portland...This was a breakout season for LaMarcus Aldridge as just about every stat increased for this 22 points per game scorer...As usual the team is asked to perform without Greg Oden as he was (again) lost for the season with an injury...The health of Marcus Camby will be big as he will need to provide a partner down low with Aldridge...Wesley Matthews can shoot, and Andre Miller and Nicolas Batum contribute too...Rudy Fernandez can certainly be a weapon off the bench for Coach Nate McMillan who does have depth to work with
This series is the toughest to call IMO...I will say Dallas takes Game 7 on home court
#4 Oklahoma City Thunder vs #5 Denver Nuggets
OK City was a Top 5 O this season, but you have to wonder if that will take a step back as they traded a scorer like Jeff Green at the Trade Deadline for a defender like Kendrick Perkins...Perk only gives the Thunder about 5 points per game, while Green was more like 16 ppg...GM Sam Presti thought that in order for his team to get out of Round 1 and actually compete in a playoff run they were going to need to get tougher on the interior hence the Green for Perkins trade...OK City was always a good rebounding team, and that only improves with a guy like Perkins...The team is led of course by Kevin Durant...Last season Durant became the youngest scoring champ ever (21) and this season he won the scoring title again...PG Russell Westbrook continued his development this season with increased #'s across the board...James Harden provides a spark off the bench, as does Eric Maynor...Thabo Sefolosha and Nick Collison contribute to the Thunder too...Wonderful job being done for this organization by Coach Scott Brooks
Since the Nuggets traded Carmelo Anthony for a ton of Knicks players they have gone 19-7...stunning achievement for Coach George Karl and his squad...The roster is now better suited to play some good Team D, and be able to shoot the ball well too which has Karl all-smiles...Danilo Gallinari, Raymond Felton, and Wilson Chandler have all provided skill and depth to the Nuggets...Ty Lawson, Aaron Afflalo, and J.R. Smith are major contributors too...Kenyon Martin, Chris Anderson, Nene, and Al Harrington all provide skill and depth to the frontcourt...
Things are rolling for Denver since the Melo trade, and the Perkins trade may have the Thunder wondering about their identity...but...all that said I am taking OK City to win Game 7 at home
craig.ballard@hotmail.com ...follow me on twitter @craigballard77
#1 Chicago Bulls vs #8 Indiana Pacers
The Bulls flourished in their inaugural season of the Tom Thibodeau era...Longtime readers of the blog will remember last year when we talked about the idea that the Raps should try to hire Thibodeau as he was the next up-an-coming guru...We know they did not try to get Thibodeau (the 2011 result was Raps win 22 games while Chicago won their 22nd game on Jan 1) but ChiTown did and they are reaping the rewards...
62 Bulls W's...9 straight to finish the season...Top seed in the East...Michael Jordan telling Chicago fans they may win another 6 Titles with this current group...It all adds up to wow...A TON of press/attention for the MVP likelihood for Derrick Rose...Marvelous season by Rose...We mentioned a few months ago that we would follow Rose very closely after Kobe made the comments of how impressed he gets with young talent that are advance enough to recognize the areas of improvements needed in their game, and then put in the work in the off-season to improve...Kobe said Rose clearly is worthy of that praise...Now let's understand that Chicago is hardily a one-man show...DEEP squad...The big 3 of Rose, Carlos Boozer, and Luol Deng give the Bulls 50 points per game...Joakim Noah was injured for half of the season, but when healthy he averages a double-double...The role players after those 4 like Taj Gibson, Kyle Korver, Ronnie Brewer, C.J. Watson, Keith Bogans, Omer Asik, and Kurt Thomas all provide skill and depth for the Bulls...This team was wonderful on D under Thibodeau...#2 points allowed...#2 point differential...#1 Field Goal % D... #1 3-point FG% D
The Pacers also enter the playoffs with a first-time Head Coach...Frank Vogel took over for the fired Jim O'Brien on Jan 30/11 and led the team to a 20-18 record to end the season...Danny Granger (who the Raps should have drafted instead of Joey Graham) is a scorer, and the Pacers get 10+ ppg from Darren Collison, Mike Dunleavy, Tyler Hansbrough, and Roy Hibbert...Hibbert also gives the D a boost as a defender at the rim (1.8 blocks per game for the former Raptors draft pick)...Brandon Rush, Paul George, Josh McRoberts, and A.J. Price also provide depth
There are some nice pieces in place going forward for Indiana, but they will surely be overwhelmed by this Bulls team that is deep, and firing on all cylinders...Bulls in 4
#2 Miami Heat vs #7 Philadelphia 76ers
Coming into the 2010-2011 season many wondered if the Heat would surpass the 1995-1996 Bulls record of 72-10...The Heat won 58 games...You know me, I never understood why if you want to win a Championship then how was Miami the team to join for the Big 3?!?! How is Mario Chalmers a Champ PG?!?! How can you get a frontcourt in Miami that will be better than Boston, Chicago, or Orlando?!?! Those questions may not come into play in Round 1, but that doesn't mean we should just sleep on this Sixers squad...
Philly is led by Elton Brand who gave the team a full season for the first time since joining them 3 years ago...Brand leads the O at 15 ppg...After Brand there are an impressive 5 players that average 10+ points per game for Philly...Brand, Andre Iguodala, Jrue Holiday (emerging 2nd year PG), and Jody Meeks (also a good 2nd year Guard) all score for the starting unit, while Thaddeus Young and Louis Williams are fantastic off the bench combining for 25 ppg...Add young C Spencer Hawes, and rookie Evan Turner and we see a lot of young, high-upside talent for this organization going forward...Head Coach Doug Collins (who also should have been given a look by the Raps to run their team) has done a terrific job with Philly, and he gets a lot of help from a great staff with former NBAers like Michael Curry and Aaron McKie, as well as former Marquette and D-Wade coach Quin Snyder...Iguodala is a wonderful perimeter defender and should give Wade and LeBron fits in this series, but of course only one at a time...
That is the thing with the Heat - they will be poor at the PG and C positions, good at the PF spot, but amazing at the SG and SF thanks to Wade and Bron Bron...Of the Big 4 (Miami-Boston-Orlando-Chicago) the Heat may have the toughest test in Round 1 as this Sixers team may be young enough to not understand that they are supposed to lose this series handily...They may be able to provide the Heat with a test...For Heat Head Coach Erik Spoelstra this is an opportunity to show his players that this is a test right out of the gate and get his guys to embrace playoff basketball right away...That may provide a competitive edge for the Heat in Round 2 as they will have survived a battle, while their opponent is possibly dealing with fools gold having easily dispatched an inferior Round 1 opponent...
For the Heat to advance they need to get their last-second blunders figured out...This team was dreadful in the last 10 seconds of games with shots to tie or win a game...This team was also dreadful in games decided by 5 points or less (one the worst in the NBA)...For me the key in this series will be Bosh and the combined play of Zydrunas Ilgauskas, Joel Anthony, and (if he can play) Erick Dampier...The key to beat the Heat is to be great at defending the rim so that you turn them into a jump-shooting team...This 76ers team has a tremendous future, but they are not equipped right now to turn Miami into a one-dimensional jump-shooting team which will ultimately be the difference in this series...Miami in 5
#3 Boston Celtics vs #6 New York Knicks
Wow...Do we see some intrigue folks?!?! Great D vs great O...Boston with original Big 3 in Kevin Garnett, Ray Allen, and Paul Pierce vs the latest Big 3 in Amar'e, Melo, and Chauncey...2 storied franchises...
For the second straight season the Celtics are sleep-walking into the playoffs...The difference to me is the 2010 C's were uninterested until playoff time, while the 2011 C's seem tired and somewhat worn down...Boston was able to turn the switch on last post-season, but that is a dangerous game...The organization brought back Doc Rivers and re-upped with Paul Pierce and Ray Allen all in the name of making another Championship run in '11...The D is still good, but perhaps not great since the trade of Kendrick Perkins...That trade left the C's with a different look, and perhaps to this day they are trying to figure out their identity now...The veterans on the team were devastated by the trade as they understood that Perk was a major contributor to the toughness in the paint their D had become great at...That now falls to Shaq...The big fella has been injured most of the season, but he and Jermaine O'Neal (also injured much of 2011) will need to combine with Nenad Kristic to provide the last line of D for the Celtics...Looks like the best chance is if Shaq can get healthy and give them 25-30 mins per game
For New York the story is on the other end of the floor...The Knicks have to win games by outscoring you in a shoot-out...This team plays zero D...Since their Feb 21/11 trade for Melo the Knicks are a pedestrian 14-14, including 0-2 vs Boston...Head Coach Mike D'Antoni's squad went 3-7 in games with Melo where they did not score 100+ points...That started at 2-0, so they lost 7 of their last 8 games where they did not score at least 100...The Celtics need the game to be 80-something to 80-something, while the Knicks need the game to be played in the 100's to be successful...For the Knicks to be able to impose their will on this series and turn it into a shoot-out they will need much more than their Big 3...Laundry Fields will need to be a scorer in this series , as will guys like Toney Douglas, Bill Walker, and Shawne Williams (all will have to be on fire from 3-point range to have the Knicks be competitive in this series)
Ultimately I will have faith in Celtics ability to get it on the right track for the playoffs...We have seen it before...This is one series that an upset would not shock me to be honest, but I will predict C's in 6
#4 Orlando Magic vs #5 Atlanta Hawks
Many seem to have Orlando as a distant 4th best team in the East, I do not...I like this team a lot...Dwight Howard is the true MVP in the NBA...No other player is as dominant on both ends of the floor as Howard (and the amazing thing is he will get even better)...His activity inside the paint is fantastic...He blocks shots on the regular, but he changes/alters sooo many opponents shots too...The Magic added pieces around D12 on the fly this season with the additions of Jason Richardson, Hedon't Turkoglu, and Gilbert Arenas...A real nice emergence this season was Ryan Anderson who gives the squad 10+ points per game...Anderson, Turkoglu, and J-Rich combine with Jameer Nelson and JJ Redick to give the Magic a ton of shooting options to surround D12...At some point (likely not this series) the likes of Brandon Bass and Earl Clark will have to provide depth for the frontcourt of Orlando vs teams like Boston, Chicago, and Miami...Despite the on-the-fly roster changes Head Coach Stan Van Gundy still had his team play at a high level defensively...Only Boston and ChiTown play better team D than Orlando of any team in the playoffs...
The chance for any team vs Orlando is to have a defender to occupy D12 so you can stay home on Orlando's shooters...The Celtics do that very well for example, but this Hawks team is hardily a similar roster to Boston...Hotlanta gets a lot of athletic scoring from guys like Jamal Crawford, Marvin Williams, Joe Johnson, and Josh Smith...Hawks did take 3 of 4 games vs Orlando this season, but are struggling lately and for me I am disappointed in this team as they took a step back this season (IMO)...In this series Jason Collins will be they guy called on to slow down Dwight Howard, while Kirk Hinrich will be in his first playoffs with the Hawks...Those 2 will need to be huge, plus I think Horford will have to be huge too...1 of (if not both of) Jamal Crawford and Joe Johnson is going to have to be on fire from downtown for the ATL to hang with Orlando...
Too much going for Orlando these days vs not enough going right for Hotlanta these days = Magic in 5
WEST
#1 San Antonio Spurs vs #8 Memphis Grizzles
How do you handicap these Spurs?!?! The first 85% of the season was marvelous for this squad...They do however end the season on a bad 4-8 finish, and have stars like Tim Duncan and Manu Ginobli banged up...Spurs enter the playoffs as the #1 seed in the West despite the poor finish...When the Spurs are healthy they of course are led by their big 3 of Duncan, Manu, and Tony Parker...Those 3 are the veterans and leaders, but this Spurs team is sooo much more...Duncan averaged a lower ppg (13) than ever in his 14 year career, and still the Spurs stacked 61 W's...Guys like George Hill, Richard Jefferson, DeJuan Blair, Gary Neal, Antonio McDyess, and Raptor fan fav Matt Bonner all combine to provide a ton of talent and depth for Gregg Popovich...Truth is if you coach in a time where Phil Jackson coaches then you are going to be #2 at best as Jackson will get all the press...I am a huge admirer of Pop and the job he has done in San Antonio...He is the longest serving Coach in the Association currently, and a 4-time Champion...BIG UP POP...This current squad scores better than you may think, and defends poorer than you may think
On the other bench we have Lionel Hollins leading the Memphis Grizzles to a 46 win season...I would feel so much better about this team if they hadn't lost Rudy Gay recently (out for the season)...They were able to still have a strong season thanks to their depth...Zach Randolph had a fantastic season (averaged 20 ppg and 12 rebounds per game) and Marc Gasol is also a contributor to this team down low...Mike Conley, O.J. Mayo, Sam Young, and Darrell Arthur all contribute to this team, while Tony Allen and Shane Battier lead the D...Memphis went 2-2 vs the Spurs (won the 2 most recent) and scored 100+ points in 3 of those games so this team will have confidence...There are several in fact who believe that the Grizz were not at all displeased to lose their final 2 games thus "dropping" from #7 and a date with the Lakers to #8 vs a Spurs team they feel they can beat...
I cannot get away from wishing Memphis had the minutes and scoring that Gay gives them...without him I would say if we find out that Manu's elbow injury is bad then perhaps Spurs in 6, but other than that Spurs in 5
#2 LosAngeles Lakers vs #7 New Orleans Hornets
The Lakers are an un-inspired 3-5 in April...The 5 loses in fact coming in a row, with 3 of those being at home...Terrible finish...Inexcusable lack of effort, focus, and execution...What is stunning is this all came on the heels of a post-All-Star run that was brilliant...LA was winning game after game with dominant 3rd and 4th Q's as their Championship D was on display...I would have to say that despite the poor finish the board #1 through #8 couldn't look any better for LA...By finishing #2 they avoid any of Portland, Denver, or Oklahoma City in Round 1...They also have 2 rounds to have a team eliminate San Antonio which would give the Lakers Home Court in the Conference Finals...LA also draws the one team where a banged-up Bynum will not be needed/missed...New Orleans is terrible on O, and just lost leading scorer David West for the season so with Kobe, Pau, Lamar, Ron Artest, D-Fish et al the Lakers should have significantly more than enough fire power to outscore the Hornets with or without Bynum...On D we know the Lakers traditionally struggle with quick and talented PG's like Chris Paul...in the 2010 Finals we saw the Lakers put Kobe on the previously unstoppable Rajon Rondo and the result was a success, so perhaps if CP3 can create miracles for the Hornets we may see LA go to that strategy of Kobe guards the PG while D-Fish and Steve Blake guard the SG...Last years Round 1 was a 4-2 good series (especially last 4 games) vs OK City...The Lakers would love dearly to advance with more ease this season...The 3-time defending Western Conference Champs have played a lot of basketball games over the past 3 years and do not want to add unnecessary wear and tear by allowing this series to get lengthy
The Hornets have Paul, and can defend very well as a unit, but they are out manned in this series...Carl Landry is a guy that will have to be big for this team, especially with the loss of West...Paul and Marco Belinelli will have to be on fire from 3-point range to give the Hornets a shot at any game in this series...Trevor Ariza will surely need to score more than his season average of 11 points per game...Emeka Okafor has to be a beast down low...
We see a Lakers team that does not need to be at 100% to beat this Hornets team...And we have a Hornets team that needs their guys to all be at 120% due to already being outclassed plus losing David West...Tooooo much to like here for LA despite sloppy recent play...Lakers sweep
#3 Dallas Mavericks vs #6 Portland Trail Blazers
I was really surprised in this past off-season when the Mavs kept Jason Kidd, Dirk Nowitzki, and Jason Terry...This team has been bounced in Round 1 of the playoffs 3 of the last 4 seasons and I figured Mark Cuban was not going to have a sense of humor about that, thus trades were coming...not so...The Mavs re-signed Brendan Haywood, and continued to build around Disco Dirk and The Jet by adding the likes of Tyson Chandler, and on-the-fly moves like Peja Stojakovic and Corey Brewer...Dallas gets contributions from Rodrigue Beaubois, Jose Juan Barea, and DeShawn Stevenson too...I would feel much better about the Mavs if they hadn't lost Caron Butler to injury...There are a lot of pieces here to like and if they had the creative/multi-dimensional scorer that Butler is to go with it all I would like this team much more than I do...If this team gets tossed in Round 1 for a 4th time in 5 years we will surely look for the Mavs to blow up the roster this summer...Head Coach Rick Carlisle has this team playing team D at a very high level, including The Matrix Shawn Marion
The Trail Blazers are a roster just coming together...Brandon Roy is just getting back to 100% health and game speed, while Gerald Wallace is getting more and more comfortable in his role with Portland...This was a breakout season for LaMarcus Aldridge as just about every stat increased for this 22 points per game scorer...As usual the team is asked to perform without Greg Oden as he was (again) lost for the season with an injury...The health of Marcus Camby will be big as he will need to provide a partner down low with Aldridge...Wesley Matthews can shoot, and Andre Miller and Nicolas Batum contribute too...Rudy Fernandez can certainly be a weapon off the bench for Coach Nate McMillan who does have depth to work with
This series is the toughest to call IMO...I will say Dallas takes Game 7 on home court
#4 Oklahoma City Thunder vs #5 Denver Nuggets
OK City was a Top 5 O this season, but you have to wonder if that will take a step back as they traded a scorer like Jeff Green at the Trade Deadline for a defender like Kendrick Perkins...Perk only gives the Thunder about 5 points per game, while Green was more like 16 ppg...GM Sam Presti thought that in order for his team to get out of Round 1 and actually compete in a playoff run they were going to need to get tougher on the interior hence the Green for Perkins trade...OK City was always a good rebounding team, and that only improves with a guy like Perkins...The team is led of course by Kevin Durant...Last season Durant became the youngest scoring champ ever (21) and this season he won the scoring title again...PG Russell Westbrook continued his development this season with increased #'s across the board...James Harden provides a spark off the bench, as does Eric Maynor...Thabo Sefolosha and Nick Collison contribute to the Thunder too...Wonderful job being done for this organization by Coach Scott Brooks
Since the Nuggets traded Carmelo Anthony for a ton of Knicks players they have gone 19-7...stunning achievement for Coach George Karl and his squad...The roster is now better suited to play some good Team D, and be able to shoot the ball well too which has Karl all-smiles...Danilo Gallinari, Raymond Felton, and Wilson Chandler have all provided skill and depth to the Nuggets...Ty Lawson, Aaron Afflalo, and J.R. Smith are major contributors too...Kenyon Martin, Chris Anderson, Nene, and Al Harrington all provide skill and depth to the frontcourt...
Things are rolling for Denver since the Melo trade, and the Perkins trade may have the Thunder wondering about their identity...but...all that said I am taking OK City to win Game 7 at home
craig.ballard@hotmail.com ...follow me on twitter @craigballard77
Monday, April 11, 2011
J.P. Arencibia
My name is Craig Ballard, and I am a Jays fan...
No this is not another one of our AA meetings that we hold on this blog site (AA being Alex Anthopoulos - the GM of YOUR TORONTO BLUE JAYS), but we will be looking at someone that AA will have a TON riding on going forward...
I think we would all agree that the strength of this organization 2012+ is the young, high-upside pitching...Let's remember that talent works for a few innings, or every fifth day...The common thread is the C that talent is pitching to...J.P. Arencibia could be our guy...Let's take a look...
The Jays got a very good 2010 from C John Buck, but the time for J.P. to play everyday at the MLB level was surely now...He spent 2009 and 2010 at AAA Las Vegas where his power stroke was on display...Jonathan Paul Arencibia (who was drafted back in 2004 by Seattle, but did not sign with them allowing our old friend J.P. Ricciardi to draft him in the 1st round in 2007) hit 31 HR's at AAA in '10 with an impressive .301 average...in '09 and '10 he hit 30+ doubles...He has always shown above-average power (to all fields)...Things really began to go BOOM for J.P. after he had LASIK eye surgery prior to his monster 2010 season...Arencibia projects to around .255 with 20+ HR's which is pretty good for a MLB C, but as Jays fans we are hoping for a star here...For that to happen a major improvement needs to be his #'s as far as walks vs strikeouts...Way too few walks vs way too many strikeouts...The words "free swinger" will appear on every scouting report for the rest of his life...That is the book on J.P. and he needs to be able to make adjustments at the MLB level...He will need to work on shortening his swing a tad too...MLB hurlers will run 90+ mph heaters underneath your hands if you are not quick enough to get around on those
That all speaks to how J.P. fits into the batting order...What will really be asked of him is to handle this pitching staff...John Farrell is a great pitching mind...Pat Hentgen is a great pitching mind...Both will add to the already great work of Pitching Coach Bruce Walton to steer and guide the pitchers up until 7:05pm during the week...1:05pm on the weekends...10:05pm on the West Coast...Those are game times...Those are J.P.'s times...The staff is his to guide approx 5 out of every 6 games...I guess in football the Center-QB exchange could be muffed and lead to a turnover on any given play so surely that relationship is important, but does any other relationship in sports compare to what a Pitcher needs from his/her Catcher?!?! I am already struck by things like Kyle Drabek throwing 2-3 pitches in a row that are not his best and J.P. making the jog to the mound to interact with Drabek to calm him, and re-focus him...The fear is that a rookie C may not want to be a leader to a guy like a Romero, or Cecil, or Morrow...Guys who have been here already...For J.P. there are critical things like do the scouting work necessary - put in the appropriate film and study session - contribute and learn from every meeting...BE the leader...The #hustleandheart (I keep seeing that for the Jays on twitter!) leader...This city loved Buck Martinez, Ernie Whitt, and Pat Borders and in all honesty none of them were great at O, but they all led/supported the pitching staff...They all put in the necessary homework to have high baseball IQ's...J.P. has great potential...His bat will get him 125+ games so we need to see improved D too...
2011 has to be a year of development for the Jays, and for J.P....Currently Jose Molina is the #2 C...Molina usually C's for Brandon Morrow...That is one specific we will look at this season with J.P....Imperative that he get the starting nods on days where Morrow is pitching as these two need to develop their chemistry asap as both have potential to be huge for the Jays in 2012+
J.P. is already moving looser and easier behind the plate than we have ever seen him...If he continues to develop like he has been the Jays may have their guy at C...The Jays have a lot of C talent in the minors to be excited about...Guys like Carlos Perez, Travis D'Arnaud, and A.J. Jimenez will all get their shot to be every-day MLB C's, but the first opportunity to take the ball and run with it belongs to J.P. Arencibia...Good luck brother...
craig.ballard@hotmail.com and/or follow me on twitter @craigballard77
No this is not another one of our AA meetings that we hold on this blog site (AA being Alex Anthopoulos - the GM of YOUR TORONTO BLUE JAYS), but we will be looking at someone that AA will have a TON riding on going forward...
I think we would all agree that the strength of this organization 2012+ is the young, high-upside pitching...Let's remember that talent works for a few innings, or every fifth day...The common thread is the C that talent is pitching to...J.P. Arencibia could be our guy...Let's take a look...
The Jays got a very good 2010 from C John Buck, but the time for J.P. to play everyday at the MLB level was surely now...He spent 2009 and 2010 at AAA Las Vegas where his power stroke was on display...Jonathan Paul Arencibia (who was drafted back in 2004 by Seattle, but did not sign with them allowing our old friend J.P. Ricciardi to draft him in the 1st round in 2007) hit 31 HR's at AAA in '10 with an impressive .301 average...in '09 and '10 he hit 30+ doubles...He has always shown above-average power (to all fields)...Things really began to go BOOM for J.P. after he had LASIK eye surgery prior to his monster 2010 season...Arencibia projects to around .255 with 20+ HR's which is pretty good for a MLB C, but as Jays fans we are hoping for a star here...For that to happen a major improvement needs to be his #'s as far as walks vs strikeouts...Way too few walks vs way too many strikeouts...The words "free swinger" will appear on every scouting report for the rest of his life...That is the book on J.P. and he needs to be able to make adjustments at the MLB level...He will need to work on shortening his swing a tad too...MLB hurlers will run 90+ mph heaters underneath your hands if you are not quick enough to get around on those
That all speaks to how J.P. fits into the batting order...What will really be asked of him is to handle this pitching staff...John Farrell is a great pitching mind...Pat Hentgen is a great pitching mind...Both will add to the already great work of Pitching Coach Bruce Walton to steer and guide the pitchers up until 7:05pm during the week...1:05pm on the weekends...10:05pm on the West Coast...Those are game times...Those are J.P.'s times...The staff is his to guide approx 5 out of every 6 games...I guess in football the Center-QB exchange could be muffed and lead to a turnover on any given play so surely that relationship is important, but does any other relationship in sports compare to what a Pitcher needs from his/her Catcher?!?! I am already struck by things like Kyle Drabek throwing 2-3 pitches in a row that are not his best and J.P. making the jog to the mound to interact with Drabek to calm him, and re-focus him...The fear is that a rookie C may not want to be a leader to a guy like a Romero, or Cecil, or Morrow...Guys who have been here already...For J.P. there are critical things like do the scouting work necessary - put in the appropriate film and study session - contribute and learn from every meeting...BE the leader...The #hustleandheart (I keep seeing that for the Jays on twitter!) leader...This city loved Buck Martinez, Ernie Whitt, and Pat Borders and in all honesty none of them were great at O, but they all led/supported the pitching staff...They all put in the necessary homework to have high baseball IQ's...J.P. has great potential...His bat will get him 125+ games so we need to see improved D too...
2011 has to be a year of development for the Jays, and for J.P....Currently Jose Molina is the #2 C...Molina usually C's for Brandon Morrow...That is one specific we will look at this season with J.P....Imperative that he get the starting nods on days where Morrow is pitching as these two need to develop their chemistry asap as both have potential to be huge for the Jays in 2012+
J.P. is already moving looser and easier behind the plate than we have ever seen him...If he continues to develop like he has been the Jays may have their guy at C...The Jays have a lot of C talent in the minors to be excited about...Guys like Carlos Perez, Travis D'Arnaud, and A.J. Jimenez will all get their shot to be every-day MLB C's, but the first opportunity to take the ball and run with it belongs to J.P. Arencibia...Good luck brother...
craig.ballard@hotmail.com and/or follow me on twitter @craigballard77
Saturday, April 9, 2011
New Raptors Regime
Since Bryan Colangelo's first full season at the helm of YOUR TORONTO RAPTORS things have regressed drastically leaving many like myself (perhaps you too?!) to hope that BC does not get extended by MLSE...His current contract expires end of summer 2011...The Raps have won a horrid 45% of the games they have played in the BC era...Question is what direction do you turn? I only believe in making a change if you believe someone better for the job exists (which is not what BC did when he fired Sam Mitchell only to replace him with a non-NBA Head Coach like Jay Triano)...Problem for BC and his #2 Maurizio Gherardini (and Triano) is that the list of candidates that would be better than them is growing every day as their own stock continues to plummet...
Does MLSE really want to re-up with BC at (or around) the $4 mill per season he makes now (HIGH $$$ for a GM)...Let's take a look at some possible replacements...new era's...
The first name we will look at will be loved by some, hated by others...Kevin Pritchard...The ex-Trail Blazers GM has a fantastic W-L and player-personnel record/history...He drafted marvelously for Portland (except of course taking Greg Oden instead of Kevin Durant in 2007 which has not worked out, but a lot of other good draft picks for KP)...His Draft Day dealings, and other trades as Portland GM ended up being very 1-sided (in KP's favor) and led to the media referring to other GM's as having been "Pritch-slapped"...KP has had a hand in great picks like Brandon Roy and LaMarcus Alrdridge, plus sound/astute value picks like Rudy Fernandez, Nicolas Batum, and Dante Cunningham...Now KP certainly has his detractors too as he has seemingly burned a lot a bridges over his years...He "Pritch-slapped" GM's to the point where they may be wary of dealing with him again, and his behaviour re Darius Miles was roundly criticised (remember he tried to block/stop other teams from signing Miles as a FA in late 2008 as that would be bad for the Blazers Salary Cap...He was described as "arrogant" by numerous team officials throughout the Association)
I personally would surely interview KP and see if he has matured as far as the way he is going to interact with fellow GM's...I love what he did at Portland...He brought a ton of young, high-upside talent into the organization
Also for me I would be looking to interview R.C. Buford, Greg Popovich, Danny Ferry, or Dennis Lindsey...In short, anyone associated with the San Antonio Spurs front office...The Spurs have a very multi-cultural roster like the Raps, but the Spurs actually draft/trade for/sign talent and depth...Anyone out of SA's front office knows and understands how to build and foster a culture of winning...
How about looking at a guy like Jeff Van Gundy...Will Stan Van Gundy last much longer in Orlando?!?! Perhaps the brothers could unite in the T-Dot...The Raps have offered zero consequences in the paint and at the rim for the entire BC era, that would not be an issue for a Van Gundy-led organization...Van Gundy would bring intensity and physicality to the organization...Surely worth an interview...Jeff may even consider bringing in ex-Raptor Mark Jackson to coach the team...The 2 have a marvelous rapport working together to call NBA games currently...Van Gundy would have a good enough relationship with several former NBA players that may be the next up-and-coming NBA coaches like the Raps tried before with Mitchell...Utah is trying that with Ty Corbin...Perhaps Van Gundy can attract a higher caliber potential than Corbin, like a Jackson or a Reggie Miller...
How about considering Earvin Magic Johnson...Magic has decades of experience working in a world-class organization and he would bring a ton to the table...Plus, Magic would really be a guy that could bring in next-level coaches...perhaps even NCAA studs (Brad Stevens, Jim Calhoun, Tom Izzo etc...likely not Coach K as he will likely remain at Duke) may be willing to make the jump to Coach in the NBA if it meant heading to a 1st class city like Toronto to work for a 1st class guy like Magic...
Is it possible that guys like Rick Adleman, Scott Skiles, or Rick Carlisle would leave their current NBA Head Coach jobs if you gave them GM duties as well?!?! Or at least significant say in player-personnel moves to come and Coach in the T-Dot...
I would look at Chip Engelland as a possible GM or Coach...Engelland spent 4 years at Duke playing and learning from Coach K...He has player-personnel experience in the Association...The last 6+ years he has served as Assistant Coach in San Antonio on Gregg Popovich's bench...How about learning from Coach K and Pop?!?! Wow...
If you are looking for a new GM that does have some experience in the Association as a player, and as a Exec then guys like Steve Kerr and Kevin McHale
That mostly looks at GM's (with a few Coach/GM options too)...Let's look at specific Head Coach candidates...
Will ex-Raps like Charles Oakley or Damon Stoudamire get NBA Head Coaching jobs at some point? Who is out there to replace Triano?
I would look at my #1 choice to be to go back to summer of 2010 and try to get Tom Thibodeau to come to Canada...Assuming that is not an option let's look at other possibilities...
I would have a look at Lawrence Frank who is currently on Boston's bench as an Assistant to Doc Rivers...Frank was once the Head Coach for the New Jersey Nets, and he will surely be an NBA Head Coach again soon
There are several candidates on the Lakers bench that have served (and learned from) Phil Jackson...Jim Cleamons has been there for years, and has NBA Head Coach experience with the Mavs...Brian Shaw has been there for years too and could follow Kurt Rambis' lead which is to take the Triangle O and the Lakers way (Phil Jackson's way really) to a new organization (Rambis however is currently experiencing growing pains trying to implement the Triangle in Minny...That may have to do with a poor roster though)
Could an in-house hire like P. J. Carlesimo do the job?!?!
In the D-League guys like Dee Brown (yes that Dee Brown), Jay Larranaga, Randy Livingston, Austin Ainge (son of ex-Jays player and current C's GM Danny Ainge), Darvin Ham (remember him?!), Eric Musselman (TON of coaching experience), and Chris Finch (Great Britain National Coach) are all getting the on-the-job experience/exposure needed to get an NBA promotion
We see a lot of potential here...Of course there is other potential too...As mentioned earlier the list of people who could do a better job than BC/Gherardini/Triano is growing every day...The latest word is that MLSE may be considering not doing a re-up with BC when it looked for a looong time like they would so perhaps we have a chance for improvement around here...Re-up with BC and you keep getting the same type of soft player that does not provide consequences in the paint and thus continue to lose more games than you win...
Go Raps Go
Follow me on twitter @craigballard77
craig.ballard@hotmail.com
Does MLSE really want to re-up with BC at (or around) the $4 mill per season he makes now (HIGH $$$ for a GM)...Let's take a look at some possible replacements...new era's...
The first name we will look at will be loved by some, hated by others...Kevin Pritchard...The ex-Trail Blazers GM has a fantastic W-L and player-personnel record/history...He drafted marvelously for Portland (except of course taking Greg Oden instead of Kevin Durant in 2007 which has not worked out, but a lot of other good draft picks for KP)...His Draft Day dealings, and other trades as Portland GM ended up being very 1-sided (in KP's favor) and led to the media referring to other GM's as having been "Pritch-slapped"...KP has had a hand in great picks like Brandon Roy and LaMarcus Alrdridge, plus sound/astute value picks like Rudy Fernandez, Nicolas Batum, and Dante Cunningham...Now KP certainly has his detractors too as he has seemingly burned a lot a bridges over his years...He "Pritch-slapped" GM's to the point where they may be wary of dealing with him again, and his behaviour re Darius Miles was roundly criticised (remember he tried to block/stop other teams from signing Miles as a FA in late 2008 as that would be bad for the Blazers Salary Cap...He was described as "arrogant" by numerous team officials throughout the Association)
I personally would surely interview KP and see if he has matured as far as the way he is going to interact with fellow GM's...I love what he did at Portland...He brought a ton of young, high-upside talent into the organization
Also for me I would be looking to interview R.C. Buford, Greg Popovich, Danny Ferry, or Dennis Lindsey...In short, anyone associated with the San Antonio Spurs front office...The Spurs have a very multi-cultural roster like the Raps, but the Spurs actually draft/trade for/sign talent and depth...Anyone out of SA's front office knows and understands how to build and foster a culture of winning...
How about looking at a guy like Jeff Van Gundy...Will Stan Van Gundy last much longer in Orlando?!?! Perhaps the brothers could unite in the T-Dot...The Raps have offered zero consequences in the paint and at the rim for the entire BC era, that would not be an issue for a Van Gundy-led organization...Van Gundy would bring intensity and physicality to the organization...Surely worth an interview...Jeff may even consider bringing in ex-Raptor Mark Jackson to coach the team...The 2 have a marvelous rapport working together to call NBA games currently...Van Gundy would have a good enough relationship with several former NBA players that may be the next up-and-coming NBA coaches like the Raps tried before with Mitchell...Utah is trying that with Ty Corbin...Perhaps Van Gundy can attract a higher caliber potential than Corbin, like a Jackson or a Reggie Miller...
How about considering Earvin Magic Johnson...Magic has decades of experience working in a world-class organization and he would bring a ton to the table...Plus, Magic would really be a guy that could bring in next-level coaches...perhaps even NCAA studs (Brad Stevens, Jim Calhoun, Tom Izzo etc...likely not Coach K as he will likely remain at Duke) may be willing to make the jump to Coach in the NBA if it meant heading to a 1st class city like Toronto to work for a 1st class guy like Magic...
Is it possible that guys like Rick Adleman, Scott Skiles, or Rick Carlisle would leave their current NBA Head Coach jobs if you gave them GM duties as well?!?! Or at least significant say in player-personnel moves to come and Coach in the T-Dot...
I would look at Chip Engelland as a possible GM or Coach...Engelland spent 4 years at Duke playing and learning from Coach K...He has player-personnel experience in the Association...The last 6+ years he has served as Assistant Coach in San Antonio on Gregg Popovich's bench...How about learning from Coach K and Pop?!?! Wow...
If you are looking for a new GM that does have some experience in the Association as a player, and as a Exec then guys like Steve Kerr and Kevin McHale
That mostly looks at GM's (with a few Coach/GM options too)...Let's look at specific Head Coach candidates...
Will ex-Raps like Charles Oakley or Damon Stoudamire get NBA Head Coaching jobs at some point? Who is out there to replace Triano?
I would look at my #1 choice to be to go back to summer of 2010 and try to get Tom Thibodeau to come to Canada...Assuming that is not an option let's look at other possibilities...
I would have a look at Lawrence Frank who is currently on Boston's bench as an Assistant to Doc Rivers...Frank was once the Head Coach for the New Jersey Nets, and he will surely be an NBA Head Coach again soon
There are several candidates on the Lakers bench that have served (and learned from) Phil Jackson...Jim Cleamons has been there for years, and has NBA Head Coach experience with the Mavs...Brian Shaw has been there for years too and could follow Kurt Rambis' lead which is to take the Triangle O and the Lakers way (Phil Jackson's way really) to a new organization (Rambis however is currently experiencing growing pains trying to implement the Triangle in Minny...That may have to do with a poor roster though)
Could an in-house hire like P. J. Carlesimo do the job?!?!
In the D-League guys like Dee Brown (yes that Dee Brown), Jay Larranaga, Randy Livingston, Austin Ainge (son of ex-Jays player and current C's GM Danny Ainge), Darvin Ham (remember him?!), Eric Musselman (TON of coaching experience), and Chris Finch (Great Britain National Coach) are all getting the on-the-job experience/exposure needed to get an NBA promotion
We see a lot of potential here...Of course there is other potential too...As mentioned earlier the list of people who could do a better job than BC/Gherardini/Triano is growing every day...The latest word is that MLSE may be considering not doing a re-up with BC when it looked for a looong time like they would so perhaps we have a chance for improvement around here...Re-up with BC and you keep getting the same type of soft player that does not provide consequences in the paint and thus continue to lose more games than you win...
Go Raps Go
Follow me on twitter @craigballard77
craig.ballard@hotmail.com
Saturday, March 26, 2011
AL East Preview...
...Boston Red Sox...
New to Red Sox Nation - OF Carl Crawford...IB Adrian Gonzalez...RP Bobby Jenks...RP Dan Wheeler
Peace, see ya later - 3B Adrian Beltre...C Victor Martinez...1B Mike Lowell
In the Red Sox organization keep an eye on...SS Jose Iglesias...Jose cost the BoSox a cool $8+ mill just to sign the Cuban in 2009...This guy is MLB-ready as far as his D...His O does need seasoning, and with Marco Scutaro currently at SS Jose will get a chance to continue his development in the Minors, but he is not far from being an every day SS for this club...
Apparently the BoSox did not have a sense of humor about missing out on the playoffs for the first time in 4 years...They went out and added a ton of talent and depth...Let's have a look...
The rotation remains the same likely with guys like Jon Lester, Josh Beckett, John Lackey, Clay Buchholz, and Dice-K...The bullpen still has Jonathan Papelbon closing, for now, but either Daniel Bard or Bobby Jenks can close, and still leave arms like Matt Albers, Dan Wheeler, and perhaps even Tim Wakefield to contribute to the 'pen (Wakefield entering his 19th season...wow)
The O was great in 2010, and could even be better in 2011...Crawford and A-Gon are added and should each thrive in Fenway (especially A-Gon...he hit 30+ HR's with zero protection in front or behind him in the lineupin San Diego...plus hitting at Fenway as apposed to Petco should be great for him too)...Jacoby Ellsbury returns from injury...Add J.D. Drew and David Ortiz and we see 5 great left-handed hitting bats for Manager Terry Francona...From the right side Boston has studs like Dustin Pedroia and Kevin Youkilis (both looking for healthy 2011's)...Question marks are SS Marco Scutaro, and C's Jarrod Saltalamacchia and Jason Varitek
Over/Under win total for the 2011 Red Sox...95.5...OVER...A return to form from guys like Lackey and Beckett will surely be required to get 96+ W's, but there is a ton of talent here so I will predict 96+ W's
...New York Yankees...
New to the Pin stripes - C Russell Martin...RP Pedro Feliciano...OF Andruw Jones
Escape from New York - 1B Lance Berkman...RP Kerry Wood...SP Any Pettitte...OF Austin Kearns...DH Nick Johnson
In the Yanks organization keep an eye on...SS Eduardo Nunez...The Yankees do have several legit prospects believe it or not (seems their rep is more like sell/trade the prospects for high-priced MLB-ready talent, but remember the Yanks drafted and raised the likes of Jeter/Posada/Mo Rivera/Cano to name a few)...Nunez is interesting to me as the Yanks refused to include him in a deal at the Trade Deadline last season with Seattle that would have landed them Cliff Lee...that puts a lot of pressure/expectations on a guy who will one day replace Derek Jeter (as if that wasn't going to be enough pressure already!!)
It is rare to see so many question marks to start a season for the New York Yankees...Not the least of which is the starting rotation...This unit is top-heavy with C.C. Sabathia and Phil Hughes as the 1-2 punch...There is a ton of potential drop-off after that...A.J. Burnett was terrible in 2010...Rookie Ivan Nova will be in the rotation (a rookie in the Yanks rotation?!?!)...Also guys like Bartolo Colon and Freddy Garcia will get a shot at a rotation spot...so could Kevin Millwood at some point (he is going to start the season in the Minors)...The bullpen is pretty damn good...Joba Chamberlain, Pedro Feliciano, and Rafael Soriano provide skill and depth as set-up men for Mo Rivera
The OF is solid, but perhaps not great...Brett Gardner, Curtis Granderson, and Nick Swisher...The IF is great...A-Rod...Derek Jeter...Robinson Cano...Mark Teixeira...wow...also Russell Martin and Jorge Posada to C and DH (Posada likely mostly a DH going forward)...The Yankees excel at getting runners on base, and then driving them home
Over/Under win total for the 2011 Yankees...91.5...UNDER...The rotation may struggle (unless GM Brian Cashman is able to dial-up the time machine and make it 2004ish again so Millwood, Colon, and Garcia could be good)...If Nova does not produce this team will not make the playoffs...I have little faith in A.J. Burnett (he did have a solid Spring though)...LOVE the 'pen and LOVE the IF, but a tad underwhelmed everywhere else
...YOUR TORONTO BLUE JAYS...
Welcome to Canada - OF Rajai Davis...OF Corey Patterson...RP Octavio Dotel...RP Frank Francisco...OF Juan Rivera...RP Jon Rauch...RP Carlos Villanueva
Hope you enjoyed your time north of the border - OF Vernon Wells...C John Buck...RP Kevin Gregg...1B Lyle Overbay...OF Fred Lewis...RP Scott Downs...SP Shaun Marcum
In the Jays organization keep an eye on...SS Adeiny Hechavarria...we hold AA meetings around here on a regular (AA standing for Alex Anthopoulos, GM of the Jays) and we know AA has already begun to stock young high-upside talent in the organization so there is a lot to choose from...For this entry guys like Arencibia, Lawrie, McGuire, Gose, Thames, and even Drabek will take a back seat to Adeiny Hechavarria...Jays spent an amazing $10 mill to match the Yanks offer for the Cuban SS, and they landed Hechavarria...The 21 year old is already MLB-ready with his glove, but his O does need work...His glove will get him to the MLB level quickly though and we should all be in for a treat with this kid...
The pitching staff in 2011 will get their first taste of new Manager John Farrell (ex-Red Sox Pitching Coach)...Ricky Romero, Kyle Drabek, and Brett Cecil all need to continue their development in 2011...Same can be said for Brandon Morrow (who could be their best pitcher) but he is starting the season on the DL...also we know Morrow will again be shut down early in '11 once he reaches 180 innings (His 2010 was shut down at the 146 inning mark)...Jays hope Jesse Litsch can regain his 2008 form...Jo-Jo Reyes will get a look as a starter too (at least in Morrow's absence)...The Jays hope to one day have Dustin McGowan regain his health and his form to be able to rejoin the club...The bullpen is walking wounded currently...Closer Frank Francisco is down...set-up lefty Jesse Carlson is down...set-up righty Octavio Dotel is down...That leaves David Purcey, Carlos Villanueva, Casey Janssen, Jason Frasor, and Shawn Camp to set-up closer Jon Rauch...
On O the Jays lose a ton of runs with the departures of Wells, Buck, Overbay, and Lewis...Much will be needed from rookie C J.P. Arencibia...Travis Snider is entering a shit-or-get-off-the-pot season (he has a ton of talent, but at this point it is time to start putting that on display)...Rajai Davis and Juan Rivera are new to the OF, while Edwin Encarnacion and Adam Lind will be the new 1B's (both played different positions in 2010 for the Jays)...A return to health, and form, is needed for 2B Aaron Hill...Jays also need the career of SS Yunel Escobar to get back on track...Of course the O is led by Jose Bautista...Many fear that Jose will step back, waaay back, in 2011...I predict another monster season...50+ HR's?!?! Unlikely, but remember now this is a guy who really found an understanding of his swing in September of 2009, not just 2010...I think we have seen enough from Bautsita to suggest that he knows his swing so well at this point that he can continue to square up pitches and hit the ball hard consistently
Over/Under win total for the 2011 Jays...76.5...UNDER...as Jays fans we all want to see them win more than 76 games this season, but there are certain question marks on O, enough to scare me off of the OVER...For my friends that are Jays fans and keep predicting to me that this Jays team will shock people and make the play-offs in 2011 let's all take a deep breath...and remember a few things together here...If 2011 was ever on the radar for the play-offs then Doc Halladay would still be here (we remember it was Doc, AA, and Paul Beeston who all told us that Doc's timetable for winning was different than the Jays timetable...translation - Doc is ready now while Jays know their time is 2013 going forward)...plus if 2011 was going to be a play-off season then you don't allow John Buck and Scotty Downs to leave for nothing...you do not trade 2010 opening day starter Shaun Marcum for a 20 year old prospect...You likely don't even let Lyle Overbay go for nothing too...
Go Jays Go, but likely not much in 2011...2012 this team will be on the doorstep...2013+ this team will be special - perennial contenders thanks to AA
...Baltimore Orioles...
New toys for Buck Showalter - OF Vlad...3B Mark Reynolds...1B Derrek Lee...SS J.J. Hardy
New toys for Buck Showalter - OF Vlad...3B Mark Reynolds...1B Derrek Lee...SS J.J. Hardy
OUT - SP Kevin Millwood...IF Ty Wigginton...OF Corey Patterson
In the O's organization keep an eye on...SS Manny Machado...very highly ranked out of High School last season and drafted by the O's #3 overall in last years Draft...he has very high upside on O, and should be a strong defender too...the comparison has been made to a young A-Rod...
This O's team hit just 133 HR's in 2010...They may get north of 200 in 2011 with these additions...Sure Vlad, Reynolds, and Lee strikeout a lot, but they sure can bang...Add that power to a lineup that has good hitters like Nick Markakis, Luke Scott, Adam Jones, and Brian Roberts and we see potential here...C Matt Wieters needs to hit to his potential...J.J. Hardy is the new SS and we will see how he fares in the AL East (he will surely be an upgrade over Cesar Izturis)...The 2010 O's were in the bottom-third of almost every O category, but this season should be better
The 2010 pitching was a punchline...but there is potential there going forward if these young arms can mature and produce to their potential...Brian Matusz, Brad Bergesen, Jake Arrieta, and Chris Tillman all pitched much better following the mid-season managerial change that brought in Buck Showalter...Veteran Jeremy Guthrie will be the #1 starter...The bullpen adds ex-Jays Kevin Gregg and Jeremy Accardo to go with Koji Uehara in the back of the O's 'pen...All of them have MLB experience as a closer...Alfredo Simon might have been the 2011 closer, but he has bigger issues ie an involuntary manslaughter charge from a recent incident in the Dominican Republic...Jason Berken and Jim Johnson will get innings out of the bullpen too
Over/Under win total for the 2011 O's...76.5...The O's really responded to Showalter when he took over mid-season in 2010...How about a last place team that went 34-24 with Showalter at the helm...impressive...OVER
...Tampa Bay Rays...
IN - OF/DH Manny Ramirez...OF/DH Johnny Damon
OUT - 1B Carlos Pena...SP Matt Garza...SS Jason Bartlett...OF Rocco Baldelli...RP Joaquin Benoit...RP Randy Choate...OF Carl Crawford...C Dioner Navarro...RP Rafael Soriano...RP Dan Wheeler...DH Willy Aybar...
In the Rays organization keep an eye on...OF Desmond Jennings...stud-in-the-making...Jennings will replace the departed Carl Crawford and should be the Rays everyday OF for years to come...not necessarily a power hitting threat, but he does make good contact and he can flat out fly around the bases...smart base-runner too...
This Rays team won more games than any MLB team in 2010...That is extremely unlikely to repeat in 2011...a TON of talent left TB in the off-season...Now don't get me wrong, a TON of young/high-upside talent remains...let's take a look...
The rotation lost Garza, but stud David Price remains...he is the #1, followed by guys like James Shields, Wade Davis, Jeff Niemann, and Jeremy Hellickson...There is surely potential there for a solid staff...Andy Sonnanstine could be a spot-starter too (if he doesn't become the closer)...In the 'pen Jake McGee and Joel Peralta will both get a shot to close games
The O still has stud Evan Longoria, but a huge drop-off after that...Jennings, B.J. Upton, and Ben Zobrist all need big years or they may see their playing time go to Man-Ram and/or Johnny Damon...Reid Brignac takes over at SS...he and double-play partner 2B Sean Rodriquez both need improved 2011 seasons...John Jaso and Kelly Shoppach are the Catchers (not much to like there)...1B will likely be Dan Johnson (yikes)
Over/Under win total for the 2011 Rays...84.5...UNDER...The starting staff could still be pretty good (especially Price) but the bullpen has potential to be awful, and the everyday lineup will take enough steps back that this Rays team will struggle in 2010
Check out the other MLB Previews too...and follow me on twitter @craigballard77
raig.ballard@hotmail.com
AL Central Preview
...Detroit Tigers...
IN - C Victor Martinez...RP Joaquin Benoit
OUT - SP Jeremy Bonderman (currently free agent)...OF Johnny Damon...SS Adam Everett...C Gerald Laird
In the Tigers organization keep an eye on...P Charlie Furbush...aside from the great name this lefty was impressive in the Minors in 2010 breezing through hitters at 3 different levels...MLB-ready fastball...nasty curveball...this guy racks up K's, but does need to improve his HR allowed #'s
The Tigers enter 2011 having numerous players with nagging injuries so we will look for this team to get better throughout the year as their health (hopefully) improves...The rotation is led by Justin Verlander, with Max Scherzer as a promising #2...after that the potential is there, but Detroit needs to see increased production from Rick Porcello and Armando Galarraga...Phil Coke will be interesting to watch as the former reliever will be in the rotation too...Coke has appeared in 158 MLB games (and had a lot of success) as a Yankee, and now a Tiger...only 1 of those times he was the starting pitcher...The bullpen is bolstered big-time by the addition of Joaquin Benoit...he will fit nicely with talent like Joel Zumaya and Ryan Perry, and from the left side we will see Daniel Schlereth and Brad Thomas get their shot to set-up closer Jose Valverde
The O will likely improve in 2011...C Victor Martinez is a sure .300 hitter added to the line-up...If you are a Tigers fan you wonder what type of 2011 will 1B Miguel Cabrera actually have...Clearly you need him to be at 100% as he is a monster in the middle of that lineup...Detroit needs a return to health, and form, from Carlos Guillen...Also need improved play from SS Jhonny Peralta...All that being said I still think the major cogs in this line-up have to be OF's Austin Jackson and Brandon Boesch...Both need to have next-step seasons for Detroit to be able to either overcome the loss of Cabrera, or provide Cabrera protection in the lineup...Ryan Raburn could fit into that category too
Over/Under win total for the 2011 Tigers...84...OVER...we see potential in the pitching staff, and we see potential on O...Again we say let's watch Miguel Cabrera this season...should be very interesting in Michigan
...Chicago White Sox...
Welcome to the ChiSox - RP Jesse Crain...1B/DH Adam Dunn
Gone from the Ozzie Guillen madhouse - RP Bobby Jenks...OF Andruw Jones...RP Scott Linebrink...RP J.J. Putz...Man-Ram
In the ChiSox organization keep an eye on...P Chris Sale...stud-in-the-making for this team...will he be in the rotation or bullpen?...Sale (starter growing up) made his MLB debut quickly after being drafted #13 overall in the 2010 Draft...months later he was closing games for the White Sox, and his #'s were wow wow wow...23 IP - just 15 hits allowed with a whopping 32 K's...he kicked ass as a closer in his brief MLB stint, but he has 3 MLB-ready pitches and that sort of make-up is usually better suited for a starting pitcher...time will tell but this lefty looks good folks
Usually this team is interesting to watch because we remember White Sox GM Kenny Williams as a Blue Jays player in 1990 running over Jays 3B Coach John McClaren on one of the more bizarre sequences you will ever see, and because Manager Ozzie Guillen is his own walking reality tv show...This year the on-field antics may be worth a peak too...A lot of potential here for the Southsiders...Pitching staff could be damn good...Mark Buehrle, Gavin Floyd, John Danks, and Edwin Jackson give the club a solid 1 through 4...Philip Humber looks like he will be the #5 starter until Jake Peavy is able to get back on the mound...Can you imagine this staff if Peavy returns to form?!?! A ton of potential here...The 'pen looks good too...Sale, Matt Thornton (Thornton is my fav lefty reliever in baseball), Sergio Santos, and Torontonian Jesse Crain provide skill and depth
The O has potential as well...OF's Alex Rios and Carlos Quentin have upside...as does1B Paul Konerko...New addition Adam Dunn should bring 40+ HR's to this lineup...SS Alexei Ramirez is solid...C A.J. Pierzynski needs a better 2011...Another good season will be required from Juan Pierre...Question marks with rookie 3B Brent Morel (as he is known more for his glove than his O) and 2B Gordon Beckham...MUCH more was expected of Beckham...ChiSox have to be hoping that with the hype pretty much dead now perhaps it will be a better opportunity for Beckham to thrive/produce at the MLB level
Over/Under win total for the 2011 White Sox...85.5...OVER...too much to like here...easy to believe 86+ wins is in the cards for the Chicago White Sox
...Minnesota Twins...
New to the Twins - SS Tsuyoshi Nishioka
OUT - RP Jesse Crain...RP Matt Guerrier...SS J.J. Hardy...2B Orlando Hudson...RP Jon Rauch...RP Brian Fuentes
In the Twins organization keep an eye on...OF Joe Benson...always had speed and D (great arm) with a decent bat, but last season the power was on display as he developed a swing that puts the ball in the air...let's see if the power was a 1-year wonder, or if he is adding that to his game...
Minny has won the AL Central 2 straight seasons...The pitching staff will have to come through for this team to 3-peat...SP's Carl Pavano and Francisco Liriano have great potential to be a 1-2 punch...Scott Baker (needs to get hits allowed down), Nick Blackburn (needs to get HR's allowed down), and Kevin Slowey (needs to get hits allowed waaaay down) provide potential for #3-4-5...If the Twins remain in contention we could see GM Bill Smith add a starter on the fly...The bullpen has potential...The set-up guys look strong in Matt Capps, Glen Perkins, Jose Mijares, Pat Neshek, and Jeff Manship...Joe Nathan returns as closer after missing 2010 with Tommy John surgery...Nathan was hit extremely hard in Spring Training so we will watch how he starts the 2011 season...It may take time (still) for him to be back to his old self
The O gets the return of Canadian banger Justin Morneau...He and C Joe Mauer are the core of this team, and the leaders on O...OF Delmon Young was finally producing to his potential in 2010, and a repeat performance is surely paramount for the Twins to have success in 2011...CF Denard Span took a step back in 2010...Span will get 620+ AB's so he needs to get back to his 2009 form...Speaking of return to 2009 form how about RF Michael Cuddyer...3B looks in good hands for years to come with Danny Valencia...Tsuyoshi Nishioka may or may not be known by you now, but he surely will be...and soon! ...26 year old came over from Japan as the Twins won the bidding rights for him at a cool $5.3 million...Switch-hitting SS who can also play 2B...great speed...great hitter...Question marks will be Jason Kubel and 2B Alexi Casilla...will either hit in 2011 (or at least hit better than 2010)
Over/Under win total for the 2011 Twins...86...UNDER...I see a lot to like on O, but a pitching staff that could see its share of problems...
...Cleveland Indians...
Welcome to the Cleve - SS Adam Everett...(welcome back) OF Austin Kearns...IF Orlando Cabrera
No notable departures...
In the Indians organization keep an eye on...P Joe Gardner...nasty MLB-ready sinker on some now-you-see-me, now-you-don't level...this guy was good in 2010 and should be a MLB pitcher in the next few years
Things have gotten rotten in the Cleve...Remember the days when Jacobs Field was a sure sellout (TONS of them - a record 455 straight sellouts at one point)...Would you believe that no team had worse attendance in MLB in 2010 than Cleveland...Back-to-back miserable 60+ wins seasons have killed the spirit and the attendance of Tribe fans...Chris Antonetti takes over as new GM and he has significant work to do...In the rotation you have a proven guy like Fausto Carmona...The rest of the crew showed signs of being good in the second half of 2010...Still much more will be required Justin Masterson, Mitch Talbot, Carlos Carrasco, David Huff, and Josh Tomlin...The bullpen has Frank Herrmann, Rafael Perez, Joe Smith, and Tony Sipp to set up closer Chris Perez
The O needs several guys to return to form, but first they need a return to health...Grady Sizemore, Carlos Santana, and Travis Hafner all are would-be offensive leaders for this club, but all have been plagued by injuries (for Sizemore and Hafner the injury bug has bitten them in multiple years now)...3B Jayson Nix and 1B Matt LaPorta both had miserable Springs, but both need to bring 20+ HR's to this lineup...SS Asdrubal Cabrera hopes for a healthy 2011 so he can get back to his 2009 form...Veterans Orlando Cabrera and Adam Everett provide depth for the middle IF positions...Young Luis Valbuena will get playing time in the IF too...In the OF let's watch Shin-Soo Choo...Choo hits .300+ annually, and has hit career highs in HR's 3 straight seasons...Young Michael Brantley will have to pick his game way up, or Austin Kerns could take his AB's
Over/Under win total for the 2011 Indians...71...UNDER...Bullpen has potential, but I think a third straight season of wins in the 60's is the fate of the 2011 Cleveland Indians
...Kansas City Royals...
Welcome to our rebuilding project in KC - OF Melky Cabrera...SS Alcides Escobar...OF Jeff Francoeur...SP Jeff Francis...2B Joaquin Arias...OF Lorenzo Cain...SP Vin Mazzaro...3B Pedro Feliz...RP Jeremy Jeffress
Now leaving KC (you're welcome) - SP Zack Greinke...3B Josh Fields (although Fields goes to Pittsburgh which is pretty much KC of the National League, if not worse)...SS Yuniesky Betancourt
In the Royals organization keep an eye on...3B Mike Moustakas...1B Eric Hosmer...C Will Myers... you can imagine there is a ton of talent in this organization as the Big Club loses so damn much they always get high draft picks (we saw the Rays build a perenial playoff team that way, but it is a tough road)...these 3 are in the plans for the future of KC as everyday starters...we will see all of them as soon as 2012, possibly even as early as this season (so much talent we will likely see them as September call-ups at least)...They project to group with Billy Butler as the middle of KC's order for years to come
Greinke, Gill Meche, and Brian Bannister are all gone leaving a lot of rotation spots open...Guys like Vin Mazzaro, Kyle Davies, Bruce Chen, Sean O'Sullivan, Luke Hochevar, and Canadian Jeff Francis will all get their shot at the rotation...The closer on this team is lights-out...Joakim Soria is about as good as it gets...Getting the ball to Soria in a Save situation is tough for the Royals...Robinson Tejada is likely the best set-up man on the roster, plus Jeremy Jeffress will get a shot too (Jeffress one of the many young talents that came back from Milwaukee in the Zack Greinke)
The O could get a boost from new OF's Jeff Francouer, Melky Cabrera, and Lorenzo Cain...Cain came over along with SS Alcides Escobar in the Greinke trade...Billy Butler proved he belongs at the MLB level...Wilson Betemit should see plenty of playing time, likely at 1B/3B...Mike Aviles should see action at 3B and 2B...If Pedro Feliz can regain his 20+ HR form from a few years ago then he will see time at 3B too...Not a whole lot to like here (yet)...There is plenty of O coming through the system, and plenty of young talent at the MLB level for the future to look very bright in KC
Over/Under win total for the 2011 Royals...69...UNDER...2013+ looks strong for the Royals...2011, not so much
Check out the other MLB Previews too...and follow me on twitter @craigballard77
craig.ballard@hotmail.com
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