NBA fans rejoice...The b-ball Gods have smiled on us again...Twice in the last 3 seasons we have been treated to Celtics-Lakers rivalry renewed in the Finals...This year we get a 2nd Round match-up that has the hype and potential worthy of a NBA Finals
On June 28, 2007 the Boston Celtics traded Delonte West, Wally Szczerbiak, and #5 overall pick (Jeff Green) to the Seattle Super Sonics (remember them?!) for Ray Allen (Big Baby Glen Davis also came to Boston in that deal so damn fine deal for ex-Jays player Danny Ainge)...July 31, 2007 the C's traded a record 7 players to Minnesota for Kevin Garnett...Jesus Shuttleworth aka Ray Allen and KG became teammates with resident Celtic Paul Pierce and the original Big 3 was created...
July 7, 2010 Chris Bosh and Dwayne Wade go on espn to announce they will be signing and re-signing with the Miami Heat...July 8, 2010 LeBron James has his ill-conceived "Decision" show to announce he is taking his talents to South Beach...The backlash creates the Miami Hate...New Big 3 is created
As fans we all hoped the playoff seeding would allow for a meeting of Heat/Celtics and here we go!
Boston was the better team in winning the first 3 regular season match-ups, then Miami laid a beat-down in the 4th and final reg season meeting...That lone Heat win was vs a C's team that was in their usual boredom-mode as the season was winding down...C's are built for the playoffs...Heat are being tested for the first time
Question #1 for the Celtics will be what level can they get to on the defensive end...The C's are down Kendrick Perkins and Tony Allen from previous playoff runs...Those guys were really great fits to the Team D that the C's used to win 2 Eastern Conference Titles, and 1 NBA Title in the past 3 years...This could really sting vs a talent like Dwayne Wade...Ray Allen will need a ton of help with Wade...One thing that the C's do so well on O is run defenders like Wade through multiple physical screens which could help slow him on O...To replace Perkins the Celtics will need Shaq and Nenad Krstic to go with (a hopefully healthy and rejuvenated) Jermaine O'Neal to give depth and consequences in the paint...
On the offensive end the Celtics provide a rare scoring answer to all of Miami's Big 3...Allen can score with Wade...Pierce can score with Bron Bron...KG can score with Bosh...Scoring with any of Miami's Big 3 is a tough task of course, but PP/KG/Jesus Shuttleworth have been putting the ball in the net for ages...The C's eliminated Wade's Heat and LBJ's Cavs in 2010 largely on the strength of the Rajon Rondo coming out party...Rondo was able to dribble anywhere he wanted, and able to create any passing or shooting angle he wanted...That is one of the main reasons I have been confused as to why would Wade and LBJ sign with Miami?Mario Chalmers is the answer to Rajon Rondo?!?! I am underwhelmed by the addition of Mike Bibby too...The key player will be Rondo (ironically not one of the Big 3) and his ability to get Allen, Pierce, and KG the ball in scoring positions, plus his ability to drive past defenders and create in the paint...If Rondo ever adds a jumper to his game he will be unreal
For the Heat you can expect Wade and James to be great every game...A key will be Chris Bosh...The individual CB4 vs KG match-up was won by KG in the 4 regular season games...17 points per game with 9 rebounds per game for KG vs 15 ppg and 8 rpg for Bosh...Miami is getting contributions these days from Canadian Joel Anthony and Zydrunas Ilgauskas, but Bosh has to be better than KG and give the Heat a "win" in that match-up...Bosh's +/- in the losses to Boston this season were brutal...A major wild-card for the Heat frontcourt is the potential return of co-captain Udonis Haslem...In November 2010 Haslem ruptured a ligament in his foot and expects to return for Round 3 (he hopes as early as Round 2)...Haslem is a rare asset on this roster that can hang with the physicality that the C's play with
We will mention the obvious that Wade and James need to be amazing in this series...We will mention the obvious that both are capable of being amazing...It does need to be mentioned that this Heat team got a ton of W's this season by blowing teams out...Their record in close games is a pathetic 6-15 (close game is game decided by 5 or fewer points)...Heat's late game shooting has been bru-tal...We can analyze this series forever, but if the late-game shooting continues on its retched path the Heat will be bounced...The majority of the games in Round 2 going forward will be decided by 5 points or less...The Heat's chance to blow out the C's is if they can get Mario Chalmers to stay hot...Chalmers, and guys like James Jones and Mike Miller, will have to significantly contribute from 3-ball land to give the Heat enough spread to open a lead that would knock out the Celtics...The playoff/let's dominate switch seems to have been flicked ON again for Doc Rivers and his crew so the Heat need to understand that a complete team effort will be required to win 4 games before Boston can
On the defensive end the Heat will likely see a lot of guys playing out of position...This is because they will not be able to survive to even a Game 6 if they just have Chalmers and Bibby to deal with Rondo...Multiple looks will be required using multiple players to try to slow Rondo...The actual defender on RR is only the beginning, the 4 other defenders better accorder une attention aussi...Especially the big men as RR is able to beat any defender off the dribble and penetrate into the lane for passes and kick-outs to open shooters so guys like Bosh, Anthony, Big Z (and perhaps Haslem) need to be alert and ready/able to close on that shooter to contest the open shots that RR creates...The other reason that Heat players will play out of position is that this team will surely need Mike Miller to score and contribute to win this series...Miller plays both the SF and SG positions which of course are spoken for by D-Wade and LeBron James so when the Heat want or require all 3 on the floor adjustments have to made on the D end
These 2 teams both have brutal benches...I would say that when Jeff Green comes off the Boston bench he is the only sub that has a chance to significantly impact any game...Each team has specialists off the bench like Dampier (interior D and 6 fouls to give) Miller/Jones/Eddie House (3-balls) for the Heat and O'Neal/Krstic (size) plus Glen Davis (scoring and effort) for Boston, but only Green has the potential to contribute on both ends of the floor
Nothing to compare with the coaches...Doc Rivers has been amazing these past 3 years and will be in heavy demand after he retires from the C's, while Erik Spoelstra will not be in South Beach for much longer and when he is dismissed he will not be in demand at all...Complete opposites here...
Ultimately the C's may need their Big 3, plus Rondo, plus maybe even one or both of the O'Neal's to win this series, but I do them getting this done...Celtics in 6
craig.ballard@hotmail.com
follow me on twitter @craigballard77
@craigballard77
Thursday, April 28, 2011
Sunday, April 17, 2011
Raps summer 2011
We have looked in previous blog entries at the miserable job Raptors GM Bryan Colangelo has done with this roster...Mistake after mistake for BC and his staff...The result is a roster going forward that has too much youth, and too little up-side...The core is Bargnani (25), DeMar DeRozan (22), Ed Davis (21), Amir Johnson (23), James Johnson (24), and Jerryd Bayless (22)...Linas Kleiza (26) could perhaps also be a Raptors player/contributor going forward...I see a lot of potential pieces to the puzzle there, but do we see a Superstar capable of leading this franchise to the play-offs annually?!? Likely not...
Sonny Weems and Reggie Evans will likely seek employment elsewhere this summer (Weems is a Restricted FA...Evans is an Unrestricted FA), while Leandro Barbosa will surely exercise his Player Option to remain a Rap for at least 1 more season due to the uncertainty of the new Collective Bargaining Agreement (will there be a season next year?!?! Barbosa cannot chance passing up the $7+ million Players Option for 2011-2012 season as who knows if he can get a # like that in the new CBA)...
Things get even scarier for the Raps Salary Cap in 2012-2013 as they already have $30+ mill in guaranteed salaries for that season with Jose Calderon set to make 10+ mill that season, so is Bargnani...Kleiza and Amir will combine for $10+ mill that season too...That is a lot of guaranteed cash for a lot of question mark players...Even if Bargs improves, and Kleiza and Amir are worthy NBA contributors, the $10+ mill for Calderon is clearly a blunder...That means Jose makes Rajon Rondo/D-Rose $$$ while playing at about 16% of the level those guys play at...blunder...
MLSE has seen Raptors attendance drop every year for several years in a row now so they cannot count on getting extra $$$ from us, they need to work on ways to move some of these contracts as the way to add talent to the roster...
The miserable season we just endured may have a sequel if the Raps are not able to trade either of Bargnani or Calderon...The plan is likely to try and deal both, and have Weems and Evans leave via FA...Lofty goals, but at that point you will have $$$ to spend on FA, or enough wiggle room to involve yourself in a trade(s)...
Here are some FA's that will be available this summer...Do any of them catch your eye for the T-Dot?!?!
Potential Raptors if they cannot clear any further Salary Cap space to what they have now (after paying for the upcoming Draft picks the Raps are likely somewhere in the 5-8 mill range for FA $$$) include -
Glen Davis...A big-man with heart and hustle...Almost like a Reggie Evans, but Davis
can score the ball too
Tyson Chandler...Raps went hard after Chandler in the trade market last summer, and he can surely be a major upgrade to the Raps interior D...
DeAndre Jordan...Jordan is a Restricted FA so the Clippers would have a chance to retain him regardless of any other teams interest...This guy would be a great fit going forward...stud-in-the-making so why not head to Canada and rep an entire Country...
Shane Battier...Could be great veteran fit for this young core, and unlike any current Raps player Battier is a terrific defender...
Marc Gasol...legit NBA C...double-double player
Samuel Dalembert...A Canadian shot-blocker would be a quick fan-fav around here...(side note...speaking of Canadians if Colangelo is still the GM after June 30/11 then expect him to go after Steve Nash via trade, or Nash becomes a FA after next season...Makes way too much sense to have Nash end his career in Canada)
Has Kris Humphries done enough to impress you with the Nets that you would welcome him getting starter minutes in Toronto? It would mean the Kardashian's would be in Toronto much much more which sounds good...
The 76ers have 2 wonderful young big-men set to be Restricted FA's this summer in Thaddeus Young and Spencer Hawes...
Greg Oden...At the right price I would take a chance on Oden...He is a legit 7-footer whose injury issue has been major so we would of course be looking hard at medical reports...Most have written off his career, but 7-foot height cannot be taught so I am not yet willing to write-off this 23 year old
DeShawn Stevenson...He has contributed to Dallas off the bench, and recently getting starter minutes
Nick Young is a wonderful scorer, but is Restricted
If the Raps are successful in trading Calderon or Bargnani (or perhaps both) then that puts these guys on the radar as potential FA signings...
Tayshaun Prince...very consistent scorer
Zach Randolph...Appears to be a major doofus, but he can really score and rebound in the post
Andrei Kirilenko...I am a fan of AK47...I feel he brings a lot to the table...Many dimensions to his game
Aaron Brooks...Restricted FA...With Nash almost done his career it is extremely likely that the Suns made the Dragic-for-Brooks swap with Houston to have Brooks be there PG going forward, but a man can dream can't he?!?!
Rodney Stuckey...One of the more under-the-radar guys in the Association...Horrible 3-point shooter, but he brings just about everything else to the table
Kenyon Martin...K-Mart addresses the need for intensity and effort in the paint
Jamal Crawford...What I love about Jamal is he scores regardless of if he starts, or comes off the bench...Rare to have someone score/produce in any scenario
Wilson Chandler...23 year old scorer who will only get better
Caron Butler...dynamic scorer...I have been a fan of Butler for a while now
Jeff Green...Restricted FA is a scorer
We see a lot of talent here, and I would suggest every name listed would be an upgrade for the Raps...Step one has to be the trade market to see if you can free any additional Cap Space as currently the room to add FA's is not much...Step two is to get your head out of your ass BC and stop giving FA dough to the likes of Jason Kapono, Linas Kleiza, Jamario Moon, Maceo Baston, Will Soloman, and Hassan Adams...
As Raps fans we are left (as usual) to play the wait-and-see game...Let's hope for a great summer of clear roster improvements...Go Raptors Go
craig.ballard@hotmail.com ...follow me on twitter @craigballard77
Sonny Weems and Reggie Evans will likely seek employment elsewhere this summer (Weems is a Restricted FA...Evans is an Unrestricted FA), while Leandro Barbosa will surely exercise his Player Option to remain a Rap for at least 1 more season due to the uncertainty of the new Collective Bargaining Agreement (will there be a season next year?!?! Barbosa cannot chance passing up the $7+ million Players Option for 2011-2012 season as who knows if he can get a # like that in the new CBA)...
Things get even scarier for the Raps Salary Cap in 2012-2013 as they already have $30+ mill in guaranteed salaries for that season with Jose Calderon set to make 10+ mill that season, so is Bargnani...Kleiza and Amir will combine for $10+ mill that season too...That is a lot of guaranteed cash for a lot of question mark players...Even if Bargs improves, and Kleiza and Amir are worthy NBA contributors, the $10+ mill for Calderon is clearly a blunder...That means Jose makes Rajon Rondo/D-Rose $$$ while playing at about 16% of the level those guys play at...blunder...
MLSE has seen Raptors attendance drop every year for several years in a row now so they cannot count on getting extra $$$ from us, they need to work on ways to move some of these contracts as the way to add talent to the roster...
The miserable season we just endured may have a sequel if the Raps are not able to trade either of Bargnani or Calderon...The plan is likely to try and deal both, and have Weems and Evans leave via FA...Lofty goals, but at that point you will have $$$ to spend on FA, or enough wiggle room to involve yourself in a trade(s)...
Here are some FA's that will be available this summer...Do any of them catch your eye for the T-Dot?!?!
Potential Raptors if they cannot clear any further Salary Cap space to what they have now (after paying for the upcoming Draft picks the Raps are likely somewhere in the 5-8 mill range for FA $$$) include -
Glen Davis...A big-man with heart and hustle...Almost like a Reggie Evans, but Davis
can score the ball too
Tyson Chandler...Raps went hard after Chandler in the trade market last summer, and he can surely be a major upgrade to the Raps interior D...
DeAndre Jordan...Jordan is a Restricted FA so the Clippers would have a chance to retain him regardless of any other teams interest...This guy would be a great fit going forward...stud-in-the-making so why not head to Canada and rep an entire Country...
Shane Battier...Could be great veteran fit for this young core, and unlike any current Raps player Battier is a terrific defender...
Marc Gasol...legit NBA C...double-double player
Samuel Dalembert...A Canadian shot-blocker would be a quick fan-fav around here...(side note...speaking of Canadians if Colangelo is still the GM after June 30/11 then expect him to go after Steve Nash via trade, or Nash becomes a FA after next season...Makes way too much sense to have Nash end his career in Canada)
Has Kris Humphries done enough to impress you with the Nets that you would welcome him getting starter minutes in Toronto? It would mean the Kardashian's would be in Toronto much much more which sounds good...
The 76ers have 2 wonderful young big-men set to be Restricted FA's this summer in Thaddeus Young and Spencer Hawes...
Greg Oden...At the right price I would take a chance on Oden...He is a legit 7-footer whose injury issue has been major so we would of course be looking hard at medical reports...Most have written off his career, but 7-foot height cannot be taught so I am not yet willing to write-off this 23 year old
DeShawn Stevenson...He has contributed to Dallas off the bench, and recently getting starter minutes
Nick Young is a wonderful scorer, but is Restricted
If the Raps are successful in trading Calderon or Bargnani (or perhaps both) then that puts these guys on the radar as potential FA signings...
Tayshaun Prince...very consistent scorer
Zach Randolph...Appears to be a major doofus, but he can really score and rebound in the post
Andrei Kirilenko...I am a fan of AK47...I feel he brings a lot to the table...Many dimensions to his game
Aaron Brooks...Restricted FA...With Nash almost done his career it is extremely likely that the Suns made the Dragic-for-Brooks swap with Houston to have Brooks be there PG going forward, but a man can dream can't he?!?!
Rodney Stuckey...One of the more under-the-radar guys in the Association...Horrible 3-point shooter, but he brings just about everything else to the table
Kenyon Martin...K-Mart addresses the need for intensity and effort in the paint
Jamal Crawford...What I love about Jamal is he scores regardless of if he starts, or comes off the bench...Rare to have someone score/produce in any scenario
Wilson Chandler...23 year old scorer who will only get better
Caron Butler...dynamic scorer...I have been a fan of Butler for a while now
Jeff Green...Restricted FA is a scorer
We see a lot of talent here, and I would suggest every name listed would be an upgrade for the Raps...Step one has to be the trade market to see if you can free any additional Cap Space as currently the room to add FA's is not much...Step two is to get your head out of your ass BC and stop giving FA dough to the likes of Jason Kapono, Linas Kleiza, Jamario Moon, Maceo Baston, Will Soloman, and Hassan Adams...
As Raps fans we are left (as usual) to play the wait-and-see game...Let's hope for a great summer of clear roster improvements...Go Raptors Go
craig.ballard@hotmail.com ...follow me on twitter @craigballard77
Thursday, April 14, 2011
NBA Playoff Preview
EAST
#1 Chicago Bulls vs #8 Indiana Pacers
The Bulls flourished in their inaugural season of the Tom Thibodeau era...Longtime readers of the blog will remember last year when we talked about the idea that the Raps should try to hire Thibodeau as he was the next up-an-coming guru...We know they did not try to get Thibodeau (the 2011 result was Raps win 22 games while Chicago won their 22nd game on Jan 1) but ChiTown did and they are reaping the rewards...
62 Bulls W's...9 straight to finish the season...Top seed in the East...Michael Jordan telling Chicago fans they may win another 6 Titles with this current group...It all adds up to wow...A TON of press/attention for the MVP likelihood for Derrick Rose...Marvelous season by Rose...We mentioned a few months ago that we would follow Rose very closely after Kobe made the comments of how impressed he gets with young talent that are advance enough to recognize the areas of improvements needed in their game, and then put in the work in the off-season to improve...Kobe said Rose clearly is worthy of that praise...Now let's understand that Chicago is hardily a one-man show...DEEP squad...The big 3 of Rose, Carlos Boozer, and Luol Deng give the Bulls 50 points per game...Joakim Noah was injured for half of the season, but when healthy he averages a double-double...The role players after those 4 like Taj Gibson, Kyle Korver, Ronnie Brewer, C.J. Watson, Keith Bogans, Omer Asik, and Kurt Thomas all provide skill and depth for the Bulls...This team was wonderful on D under Thibodeau...#2 points allowed...#2 point differential...#1 Field Goal % D... #1 3-point FG% D
The Pacers also enter the playoffs with a first-time Head Coach...Frank Vogel took over for the fired Jim O'Brien on Jan 30/11 and led the team to a 20-18 record to end the season...Danny Granger (who the Raps should have drafted instead of Joey Graham) is a scorer, and the Pacers get 10+ ppg from Darren Collison, Mike Dunleavy, Tyler Hansbrough, and Roy Hibbert...Hibbert also gives the D a boost as a defender at the rim (1.8 blocks per game for the former Raptors draft pick)...Brandon Rush, Paul George, Josh McRoberts, and A.J. Price also provide depth
There are some nice pieces in place going forward for Indiana, but they will surely be overwhelmed by this Bulls team that is deep, and firing on all cylinders...Bulls in 4
#2 Miami Heat vs #7 Philadelphia 76ers
Coming into the 2010-2011 season many wondered if the Heat would surpass the 1995-1996 Bulls record of 72-10...The Heat won 58 games...You know me, I never understood why if you want to win a Championship then how was Miami the team to join for the Big 3?!?! How is Mario Chalmers a Champ PG?!?! How can you get a frontcourt in Miami that will be better than Boston, Chicago, or Orlando?!?! Those questions may not come into play in Round 1, but that doesn't mean we should just sleep on this Sixers squad...
Philly is led by Elton Brand who gave the team a full season for the first time since joining them 3 years ago...Brand leads the O at 15 ppg...After Brand there are an impressive 5 players that average 10+ points per game for Philly...Brand, Andre Iguodala, Jrue Holiday (emerging 2nd year PG), and Jody Meeks (also a good 2nd year Guard) all score for the starting unit, while Thaddeus Young and Louis Williams are fantastic off the bench combining for 25 ppg...Add young C Spencer Hawes, and rookie Evan Turner and we see a lot of young, high-upside talent for this organization going forward...Head Coach Doug Collins (who also should have been given a look by the Raps to run their team) has done a terrific job with Philly, and he gets a lot of help from a great staff with former NBAers like Michael Curry and Aaron McKie, as well as former Marquette and D-Wade coach Quin Snyder...Iguodala is a wonderful perimeter defender and should give Wade and LeBron fits in this series, but of course only one at a time...
That is the thing with the Heat - they will be poor at the PG and C positions, good at the PF spot, but amazing at the SG and SF thanks to Wade and Bron Bron...Of the Big 4 (Miami-Boston-Orlando-Chicago) the Heat may have the toughest test in Round 1 as this Sixers team may be young enough to not understand that they are supposed to lose this series handily...They may be able to provide the Heat with a test...For Heat Head Coach Erik Spoelstra this is an opportunity to show his players that this is a test right out of the gate and get his guys to embrace playoff basketball right away...That may provide a competitive edge for the Heat in Round 2 as they will have survived a battle, while their opponent is possibly dealing with fools gold having easily dispatched an inferior Round 1 opponent...
For the Heat to advance they need to get their last-second blunders figured out...This team was dreadful in the last 10 seconds of games with shots to tie or win a game...This team was also dreadful in games decided by 5 points or less (one the worst in the NBA)...For me the key in this series will be Bosh and the combined play of Zydrunas Ilgauskas, Joel Anthony, and (if he can play) Erick Dampier...The key to beat the Heat is to be great at defending the rim so that you turn them into a jump-shooting team...This 76ers team has a tremendous future, but they are not equipped right now to turn Miami into a one-dimensional jump-shooting team which will ultimately be the difference in this series...Miami in 5
#3 Boston Celtics vs #6 New York Knicks
Wow...Do we see some intrigue folks?!?! Great D vs great O...Boston with original Big 3 in Kevin Garnett, Ray Allen, and Paul Pierce vs the latest Big 3 in Amar'e, Melo, and Chauncey...2 storied franchises...
For the second straight season the Celtics are sleep-walking into the playoffs...The difference to me is the 2010 C's were uninterested until playoff time, while the 2011 C's seem tired and somewhat worn down...Boston was able to turn the switch on last post-season, but that is a dangerous game...The organization brought back Doc Rivers and re-upped with Paul Pierce and Ray Allen all in the name of making another Championship run in '11...The D is still good, but perhaps not great since the trade of Kendrick Perkins...That trade left the C's with a different look, and perhaps to this day they are trying to figure out their identity now...The veterans on the team were devastated by the trade as they understood that Perk was a major contributor to the toughness in the paint their D had become great at...That now falls to Shaq...The big fella has been injured most of the season, but he and Jermaine O'Neal (also injured much of 2011) will need to combine with Nenad Kristic to provide the last line of D for the Celtics...Looks like the best chance is if Shaq can get healthy and give them 25-30 mins per game
For New York the story is on the other end of the floor...The Knicks have to win games by outscoring you in a shoot-out...This team plays zero D...Since their Feb 21/11 trade for Melo the Knicks are a pedestrian 14-14, including 0-2 vs Boston...Head Coach Mike D'Antoni's squad went 3-7 in games with Melo where they did not score 100+ points...That started at 2-0, so they lost 7 of their last 8 games where they did not score at least 100...The Celtics need the game to be 80-something to 80-something, while the Knicks need the game to be played in the 100's to be successful...For the Knicks to be able to impose their will on this series and turn it into a shoot-out they will need much more than their Big 3...Laundry Fields will need to be a scorer in this series , as will guys like Toney Douglas, Bill Walker, and Shawne Williams (all will have to be on fire from 3-point range to have the Knicks be competitive in this series)
Ultimately I will have faith in Celtics ability to get it on the right track for the playoffs...We have seen it before...This is one series that an upset would not shock me to be honest, but I will predict C's in 6
#4 Orlando Magic vs #5 Atlanta Hawks
Many seem to have Orlando as a distant 4th best team in the East, I do not...I like this team a lot...Dwight Howard is the true MVP in the NBA...No other player is as dominant on both ends of the floor as Howard (and the amazing thing is he will get even better)...His activity inside the paint is fantastic...He blocks shots on the regular, but he changes/alters sooo many opponents shots too...The Magic added pieces around D12 on the fly this season with the additions of Jason Richardson, Hedon't Turkoglu, and Gilbert Arenas...A real nice emergence this season was Ryan Anderson who gives the squad 10+ points per game...Anderson, Turkoglu, and J-Rich combine with Jameer Nelson and JJ Redick to give the Magic a ton of shooting options to surround D12...At some point (likely not this series) the likes of Brandon Bass and Earl Clark will have to provide depth for the frontcourt of Orlando vs teams like Boston, Chicago, and Miami...Despite the on-the-fly roster changes Head Coach Stan Van Gundy still had his team play at a high level defensively...Only Boston and ChiTown play better team D than Orlando of any team in the playoffs...
The chance for any team vs Orlando is to have a defender to occupy D12 so you can stay home on Orlando's shooters...The Celtics do that very well for example, but this Hawks team is hardily a similar roster to Boston...Hotlanta gets a lot of athletic scoring from guys like Jamal Crawford, Marvin Williams, Joe Johnson, and Josh Smith...Hawks did take 3 of 4 games vs Orlando this season, but are struggling lately and for me I am disappointed in this team as they took a step back this season (IMO)...In this series Jason Collins will be they guy called on to slow down Dwight Howard, while Kirk Hinrich will be in his first playoffs with the Hawks...Those 2 will need to be huge, plus I think Horford will have to be huge too...1 of (if not both of) Jamal Crawford and Joe Johnson is going to have to be on fire from downtown for the ATL to hang with Orlando...
Too much going for Orlando these days vs not enough going right for Hotlanta these days = Magic in 5
WEST
#1 San Antonio Spurs vs #8 Memphis Grizzles
How do you handicap these Spurs?!?! The first 85% of the season was marvelous for this squad...They do however end the season on a bad 4-8 finish, and have stars like Tim Duncan and Manu Ginobli banged up...Spurs enter the playoffs as the #1 seed in the West despite the poor finish...When the Spurs are healthy they of course are led by their big 3 of Duncan, Manu, and Tony Parker...Those 3 are the veterans and leaders, but this Spurs team is sooo much more...Duncan averaged a lower ppg (13) than ever in his 14 year career, and still the Spurs stacked 61 W's...Guys like George Hill, Richard Jefferson, DeJuan Blair, Gary Neal, Antonio McDyess, and Raptor fan fav Matt Bonner all combine to provide a ton of talent and depth for Gregg Popovich...Truth is if you coach in a time where Phil Jackson coaches then you are going to be #2 at best as Jackson will get all the press...I am a huge admirer of Pop and the job he has done in San Antonio...He is the longest serving Coach in the Association currently, and a 4-time Champion...BIG UP POP...This current squad scores better than you may think, and defends poorer than you may think
On the other bench we have Lionel Hollins leading the Memphis Grizzles to a 46 win season...I would feel so much better about this team if they hadn't lost Rudy Gay recently (out for the season)...They were able to still have a strong season thanks to their depth...Zach Randolph had a fantastic season (averaged 20 ppg and 12 rebounds per game) and Marc Gasol is also a contributor to this team down low...Mike Conley, O.J. Mayo, Sam Young, and Darrell Arthur all contribute to this team, while Tony Allen and Shane Battier lead the D...Memphis went 2-2 vs the Spurs (won the 2 most recent) and scored 100+ points in 3 of those games so this team will have confidence...There are several in fact who believe that the Grizz were not at all displeased to lose their final 2 games thus "dropping" from #7 and a date with the Lakers to #8 vs a Spurs team they feel they can beat...
I cannot get away from wishing Memphis had the minutes and scoring that Gay gives them...without him I would say if we find out that Manu's elbow injury is bad then perhaps Spurs in 6, but other than that Spurs in 5
#2 LosAngeles Lakers vs #7 New Orleans Hornets
The Lakers are an un-inspired 3-5 in April...The 5 loses in fact coming in a row, with 3 of those being at home...Terrible finish...Inexcusable lack of effort, focus, and execution...What is stunning is this all came on the heels of a post-All-Star run that was brilliant...LA was winning game after game with dominant 3rd and 4th Q's as their Championship D was on display...I would have to say that despite the poor finish the board #1 through #8 couldn't look any better for LA...By finishing #2 they avoid any of Portland, Denver, or Oklahoma City in Round 1...They also have 2 rounds to have a team eliminate San Antonio which would give the Lakers Home Court in the Conference Finals...LA also draws the one team where a banged-up Bynum will not be needed/missed...New Orleans is terrible on O, and just lost leading scorer David West for the season so with Kobe, Pau, Lamar, Ron Artest, D-Fish et al the Lakers should have significantly more than enough fire power to outscore the Hornets with or without Bynum...On D we know the Lakers traditionally struggle with quick and talented PG's like Chris Paul...in the 2010 Finals we saw the Lakers put Kobe on the previously unstoppable Rajon Rondo and the result was a success, so perhaps if CP3 can create miracles for the Hornets we may see LA go to that strategy of Kobe guards the PG while D-Fish and Steve Blake guard the SG...Last years Round 1 was a 4-2 good series (especially last 4 games) vs OK City...The Lakers would love dearly to advance with more ease this season...The 3-time defending Western Conference Champs have played a lot of basketball games over the past 3 years and do not want to add unnecessary wear and tear by allowing this series to get lengthy
The Hornets have Paul, and can defend very well as a unit, but they are out manned in this series...Carl Landry is a guy that will have to be big for this team, especially with the loss of West...Paul and Marco Belinelli will have to be on fire from 3-point range to give the Hornets a shot at any game in this series...Trevor Ariza will surely need to score more than his season average of 11 points per game...Emeka Okafor has to be a beast down low...
We see a Lakers team that does not need to be at 100% to beat this Hornets team...And we have a Hornets team that needs their guys to all be at 120% due to already being outclassed plus losing David West...Tooooo much to like here for LA despite sloppy recent play...Lakers sweep
#3 Dallas Mavericks vs #6 Portland Trail Blazers
I was really surprised in this past off-season when the Mavs kept Jason Kidd, Dirk Nowitzki, and Jason Terry...This team has been bounced in Round 1 of the playoffs 3 of the last 4 seasons and I figured Mark Cuban was not going to have a sense of humor about that, thus trades were coming...not so...The Mavs re-signed Brendan Haywood, and continued to build around Disco Dirk and The Jet by adding the likes of Tyson Chandler, and on-the-fly moves like Peja Stojakovic and Corey Brewer...Dallas gets contributions from Rodrigue Beaubois, Jose Juan Barea, and DeShawn Stevenson too...I would feel much better about the Mavs if they hadn't lost Caron Butler to injury...There are a lot of pieces here to like and if they had the creative/multi-dimensional scorer that Butler is to go with it all I would like this team much more than I do...If this team gets tossed in Round 1 for a 4th time in 5 years we will surely look for the Mavs to blow up the roster this summer...Head Coach Rick Carlisle has this team playing team D at a very high level, including The Matrix Shawn Marion
The Trail Blazers are a roster just coming together...Brandon Roy is just getting back to 100% health and game speed, while Gerald Wallace is getting more and more comfortable in his role with Portland...This was a breakout season for LaMarcus Aldridge as just about every stat increased for this 22 points per game scorer...As usual the team is asked to perform without Greg Oden as he was (again) lost for the season with an injury...The health of Marcus Camby will be big as he will need to provide a partner down low with Aldridge...Wesley Matthews can shoot, and Andre Miller and Nicolas Batum contribute too...Rudy Fernandez can certainly be a weapon off the bench for Coach Nate McMillan who does have depth to work with
This series is the toughest to call IMO...I will say Dallas takes Game 7 on home court
#4 Oklahoma City Thunder vs #5 Denver Nuggets
OK City was a Top 5 O this season, but you have to wonder if that will take a step back as they traded a scorer like Jeff Green at the Trade Deadline for a defender like Kendrick Perkins...Perk only gives the Thunder about 5 points per game, while Green was more like 16 ppg...GM Sam Presti thought that in order for his team to get out of Round 1 and actually compete in a playoff run they were going to need to get tougher on the interior hence the Green for Perkins trade...OK City was always a good rebounding team, and that only improves with a guy like Perkins...The team is led of course by Kevin Durant...Last season Durant became the youngest scoring champ ever (21) and this season he won the scoring title again...PG Russell Westbrook continued his development this season with increased #'s across the board...James Harden provides a spark off the bench, as does Eric Maynor...Thabo Sefolosha and Nick Collison contribute to the Thunder too...Wonderful job being done for this organization by Coach Scott Brooks
Since the Nuggets traded Carmelo Anthony for a ton of Knicks players they have gone 19-7...stunning achievement for Coach George Karl and his squad...The roster is now better suited to play some good Team D, and be able to shoot the ball well too which has Karl all-smiles...Danilo Gallinari, Raymond Felton, and Wilson Chandler have all provided skill and depth to the Nuggets...Ty Lawson, Aaron Afflalo, and J.R. Smith are major contributors too...Kenyon Martin, Chris Anderson, Nene, and Al Harrington all provide skill and depth to the frontcourt...
Things are rolling for Denver since the Melo trade, and the Perkins trade may have the Thunder wondering about their identity...but...all that said I am taking OK City to win Game 7 at home
craig.ballard@hotmail.com ...follow me on twitter @craigballard77
#1 Chicago Bulls vs #8 Indiana Pacers
The Bulls flourished in their inaugural season of the Tom Thibodeau era...Longtime readers of the blog will remember last year when we talked about the idea that the Raps should try to hire Thibodeau as he was the next up-an-coming guru...We know they did not try to get Thibodeau (the 2011 result was Raps win 22 games while Chicago won their 22nd game on Jan 1) but ChiTown did and they are reaping the rewards...
62 Bulls W's...9 straight to finish the season...Top seed in the East...Michael Jordan telling Chicago fans they may win another 6 Titles with this current group...It all adds up to wow...A TON of press/attention for the MVP likelihood for Derrick Rose...Marvelous season by Rose...We mentioned a few months ago that we would follow Rose very closely after Kobe made the comments of how impressed he gets with young talent that are advance enough to recognize the areas of improvements needed in their game, and then put in the work in the off-season to improve...Kobe said Rose clearly is worthy of that praise...Now let's understand that Chicago is hardily a one-man show...DEEP squad...The big 3 of Rose, Carlos Boozer, and Luol Deng give the Bulls 50 points per game...Joakim Noah was injured for half of the season, but when healthy he averages a double-double...The role players after those 4 like Taj Gibson, Kyle Korver, Ronnie Brewer, C.J. Watson, Keith Bogans, Omer Asik, and Kurt Thomas all provide skill and depth for the Bulls...This team was wonderful on D under Thibodeau...#2 points allowed...#2 point differential...#1 Field Goal % D... #1 3-point FG% D
The Pacers also enter the playoffs with a first-time Head Coach...Frank Vogel took over for the fired Jim O'Brien on Jan 30/11 and led the team to a 20-18 record to end the season...Danny Granger (who the Raps should have drafted instead of Joey Graham) is a scorer, and the Pacers get 10+ ppg from Darren Collison, Mike Dunleavy, Tyler Hansbrough, and Roy Hibbert...Hibbert also gives the D a boost as a defender at the rim (1.8 blocks per game for the former Raptors draft pick)...Brandon Rush, Paul George, Josh McRoberts, and A.J. Price also provide depth
There are some nice pieces in place going forward for Indiana, but they will surely be overwhelmed by this Bulls team that is deep, and firing on all cylinders...Bulls in 4
#2 Miami Heat vs #7 Philadelphia 76ers
Coming into the 2010-2011 season many wondered if the Heat would surpass the 1995-1996 Bulls record of 72-10...The Heat won 58 games...You know me, I never understood why if you want to win a Championship then how was Miami the team to join for the Big 3?!?! How is Mario Chalmers a Champ PG?!?! How can you get a frontcourt in Miami that will be better than Boston, Chicago, or Orlando?!?! Those questions may not come into play in Round 1, but that doesn't mean we should just sleep on this Sixers squad...
Philly is led by Elton Brand who gave the team a full season for the first time since joining them 3 years ago...Brand leads the O at 15 ppg...After Brand there are an impressive 5 players that average 10+ points per game for Philly...Brand, Andre Iguodala, Jrue Holiday (emerging 2nd year PG), and Jody Meeks (also a good 2nd year Guard) all score for the starting unit, while Thaddeus Young and Louis Williams are fantastic off the bench combining for 25 ppg...Add young C Spencer Hawes, and rookie Evan Turner and we see a lot of young, high-upside talent for this organization going forward...Head Coach Doug Collins (who also should have been given a look by the Raps to run their team) has done a terrific job with Philly, and he gets a lot of help from a great staff with former NBAers like Michael Curry and Aaron McKie, as well as former Marquette and D-Wade coach Quin Snyder...Iguodala is a wonderful perimeter defender and should give Wade and LeBron fits in this series, but of course only one at a time...
That is the thing with the Heat - they will be poor at the PG and C positions, good at the PF spot, but amazing at the SG and SF thanks to Wade and Bron Bron...Of the Big 4 (Miami-Boston-Orlando-Chicago) the Heat may have the toughest test in Round 1 as this Sixers team may be young enough to not understand that they are supposed to lose this series handily...They may be able to provide the Heat with a test...For Heat Head Coach Erik Spoelstra this is an opportunity to show his players that this is a test right out of the gate and get his guys to embrace playoff basketball right away...That may provide a competitive edge for the Heat in Round 2 as they will have survived a battle, while their opponent is possibly dealing with fools gold having easily dispatched an inferior Round 1 opponent...
For the Heat to advance they need to get their last-second blunders figured out...This team was dreadful in the last 10 seconds of games with shots to tie or win a game...This team was also dreadful in games decided by 5 points or less (one the worst in the NBA)...For me the key in this series will be Bosh and the combined play of Zydrunas Ilgauskas, Joel Anthony, and (if he can play) Erick Dampier...The key to beat the Heat is to be great at defending the rim so that you turn them into a jump-shooting team...This 76ers team has a tremendous future, but they are not equipped right now to turn Miami into a one-dimensional jump-shooting team which will ultimately be the difference in this series...Miami in 5
#3 Boston Celtics vs #6 New York Knicks
Wow...Do we see some intrigue folks?!?! Great D vs great O...Boston with original Big 3 in Kevin Garnett, Ray Allen, and Paul Pierce vs the latest Big 3 in Amar'e, Melo, and Chauncey...2 storied franchises...
For the second straight season the Celtics are sleep-walking into the playoffs...The difference to me is the 2010 C's were uninterested until playoff time, while the 2011 C's seem tired and somewhat worn down...Boston was able to turn the switch on last post-season, but that is a dangerous game...The organization brought back Doc Rivers and re-upped with Paul Pierce and Ray Allen all in the name of making another Championship run in '11...The D is still good, but perhaps not great since the trade of Kendrick Perkins...That trade left the C's with a different look, and perhaps to this day they are trying to figure out their identity now...The veterans on the team were devastated by the trade as they understood that Perk was a major contributor to the toughness in the paint their D had become great at...That now falls to Shaq...The big fella has been injured most of the season, but he and Jermaine O'Neal (also injured much of 2011) will need to combine with Nenad Kristic to provide the last line of D for the Celtics...Looks like the best chance is if Shaq can get healthy and give them 25-30 mins per game
For New York the story is on the other end of the floor...The Knicks have to win games by outscoring you in a shoot-out...This team plays zero D...Since their Feb 21/11 trade for Melo the Knicks are a pedestrian 14-14, including 0-2 vs Boston...Head Coach Mike D'Antoni's squad went 3-7 in games with Melo where they did not score 100+ points...That started at 2-0, so they lost 7 of their last 8 games where they did not score at least 100...The Celtics need the game to be 80-something to 80-something, while the Knicks need the game to be played in the 100's to be successful...For the Knicks to be able to impose their will on this series and turn it into a shoot-out they will need much more than their Big 3...Laundry Fields will need to be a scorer in this series , as will guys like Toney Douglas, Bill Walker, and Shawne Williams (all will have to be on fire from 3-point range to have the Knicks be competitive in this series)
Ultimately I will have faith in Celtics ability to get it on the right track for the playoffs...We have seen it before...This is one series that an upset would not shock me to be honest, but I will predict C's in 6
#4 Orlando Magic vs #5 Atlanta Hawks
Many seem to have Orlando as a distant 4th best team in the East, I do not...I like this team a lot...Dwight Howard is the true MVP in the NBA...No other player is as dominant on both ends of the floor as Howard (and the amazing thing is he will get even better)...His activity inside the paint is fantastic...He blocks shots on the regular, but he changes/alters sooo many opponents shots too...The Magic added pieces around D12 on the fly this season with the additions of Jason Richardson, Hedon't Turkoglu, and Gilbert Arenas...A real nice emergence this season was Ryan Anderson who gives the squad 10+ points per game...Anderson, Turkoglu, and J-Rich combine with Jameer Nelson and JJ Redick to give the Magic a ton of shooting options to surround D12...At some point (likely not this series) the likes of Brandon Bass and Earl Clark will have to provide depth for the frontcourt of Orlando vs teams like Boston, Chicago, and Miami...Despite the on-the-fly roster changes Head Coach Stan Van Gundy still had his team play at a high level defensively...Only Boston and ChiTown play better team D than Orlando of any team in the playoffs...
The chance for any team vs Orlando is to have a defender to occupy D12 so you can stay home on Orlando's shooters...The Celtics do that very well for example, but this Hawks team is hardily a similar roster to Boston...Hotlanta gets a lot of athletic scoring from guys like Jamal Crawford, Marvin Williams, Joe Johnson, and Josh Smith...Hawks did take 3 of 4 games vs Orlando this season, but are struggling lately and for me I am disappointed in this team as they took a step back this season (IMO)...In this series Jason Collins will be they guy called on to slow down Dwight Howard, while Kirk Hinrich will be in his first playoffs with the Hawks...Those 2 will need to be huge, plus I think Horford will have to be huge too...1 of (if not both of) Jamal Crawford and Joe Johnson is going to have to be on fire from downtown for the ATL to hang with Orlando...
Too much going for Orlando these days vs not enough going right for Hotlanta these days = Magic in 5
WEST
#1 San Antonio Spurs vs #8 Memphis Grizzles
How do you handicap these Spurs?!?! The first 85% of the season was marvelous for this squad...They do however end the season on a bad 4-8 finish, and have stars like Tim Duncan and Manu Ginobli banged up...Spurs enter the playoffs as the #1 seed in the West despite the poor finish...When the Spurs are healthy they of course are led by their big 3 of Duncan, Manu, and Tony Parker...Those 3 are the veterans and leaders, but this Spurs team is sooo much more...Duncan averaged a lower ppg (13) than ever in his 14 year career, and still the Spurs stacked 61 W's...Guys like George Hill, Richard Jefferson, DeJuan Blair, Gary Neal, Antonio McDyess, and Raptor fan fav Matt Bonner all combine to provide a ton of talent and depth for Gregg Popovich...Truth is if you coach in a time where Phil Jackson coaches then you are going to be #2 at best as Jackson will get all the press...I am a huge admirer of Pop and the job he has done in San Antonio...He is the longest serving Coach in the Association currently, and a 4-time Champion...BIG UP POP...This current squad scores better than you may think, and defends poorer than you may think
On the other bench we have Lionel Hollins leading the Memphis Grizzles to a 46 win season...I would feel so much better about this team if they hadn't lost Rudy Gay recently (out for the season)...They were able to still have a strong season thanks to their depth...Zach Randolph had a fantastic season (averaged 20 ppg and 12 rebounds per game) and Marc Gasol is also a contributor to this team down low...Mike Conley, O.J. Mayo, Sam Young, and Darrell Arthur all contribute to this team, while Tony Allen and Shane Battier lead the D...Memphis went 2-2 vs the Spurs (won the 2 most recent) and scored 100+ points in 3 of those games so this team will have confidence...There are several in fact who believe that the Grizz were not at all displeased to lose their final 2 games thus "dropping" from #7 and a date with the Lakers to #8 vs a Spurs team they feel they can beat...
I cannot get away from wishing Memphis had the minutes and scoring that Gay gives them...without him I would say if we find out that Manu's elbow injury is bad then perhaps Spurs in 6, but other than that Spurs in 5
#2 LosAngeles Lakers vs #7 New Orleans Hornets
The Lakers are an un-inspired 3-5 in April...The 5 loses in fact coming in a row, with 3 of those being at home...Terrible finish...Inexcusable lack of effort, focus, and execution...What is stunning is this all came on the heels of a post-All-Star run that was brilliant...LA was winning game after game with dominant 3rd and 4th Q's as their Championship D was on display...I would have to say that despite the poor finish the board #1 through #8 couldn't look any better for LA...By finishing #2 they avoid any of Portland, Denver, or Oklahoma City in Round 1...They also have 2 rounds to have a team eliminate San Antonio which would give the Lakers Home Court in the Conference Finals...LA also draws the one team where a banged-up Bynum will not be needed/missed...New Orleans is terrible on O, and just lost leading scorer David West for the season so with Kobe, Pau, Lamar, Ron Artest, D-Fish et al the Lakers should have significantly more than enough fire power to outscore the Hornets with or without Bynum...On D we know the Lakers traditionally struggle with quick and talented PG's like Chris Paul...in the 2010 Finals we saw the Lakers put Kobe on the previously unstoppable Rajon Rondo and the result was a success, so perhaps if CP3 can create miracles for the Hornets we may see LA go to that strategy of Kobe guards the PG while D-Fish and Steve Blake guard the SG...Last years Round 1 was a 4-2 good series (especially last 4 games) vs OK City...The Lakers would love dearly to advance with more ease this season...The 3-time defending Western Conference Champs have played a lot of basketball games over the past 3 years and do not want to add unnecessary wear and tear by allowing this series to get lengthy
The Hornets have Paul, and can defend very well as a unit, but they are out manned in this series...Carl Landry is a guy that will have to be big for this team, especially with the loss of West...Paul and Marco Belinelli will have to be on fire from 3-point range to give the Hornets a shot at any game in this series...Trevor Ariza will surely need to score more than his season average of 11 points per game...Emeka Okafor has to be a beast down low...
We see a Lakers team that does not need to be at 100% to beat this Hornets team...And we have a Hornets team that needs their guys to all be at 120% due to already being outclassed plus losing David West...Tooooo much to like here for LA despite sloppy recent play...Lakers sweep
#3 Dallas Mavericks vs #6 Portland Trail Blazers
I was really surprised in this past off-season when the Mavs kept Jason Kidd, Dirk Nowitzki, and Jason Terry...This team has been bounced in Round 1 of the playoffs 3 of the last 4 seasons and I figured Mark Cuban was not going to have a sense of humor about that, thus trades were coming...not so...The Mavs re-signed Brendan Haywood, and continued to build around Disco Dirk and The Jet by adding the likes of Tyson Chandler, and on-the-fly moves like Peja Stojakovic and Corey Brewer...Dallas gets contributions from Rodrigue Beaubois, Jose Juan Barea, and DeShawn Stevenson too...I would feel much better about the Mavs if they hadn't lost Caron Butler to injury...There are a lot of pieces here to like and if they had the creative/multi-dimensional scorer that Butler is to go with it all I would like this team much more than I do...If this team gets tossed in Round 1 for a 4th time in 5 years we will surely look for the Mavs to blow up the roster this summer...Head Coach Rick Carlisle has this team playing team D at a very high level, including The Matrix Shawn Marion
The Trail Blazers are a roster just coming together...Brandon Roy is just getting back to 100% health and game speed, while Gerald Wallace is getting more and more comfortable in his role with Portland...This was a breakout season for LaMarcus Aldridge as just about every stat increased for this 22 points per game scorer...As usual the team is asked to perform without Greg Oden as he was (again) lost for the season with an injury...The health of Marcus Camby will be big as he will need to provide a partner down low with Aldridge...Wesley Matthews can shoot, and Andre Miller and Nicolas Batum contribute too...Rudy Fernandez can certainly be a weapon off the bench for Coach Nate McMillan who does have depth to work with
This series is the toughest to call IMO...I will say Dallas takes Game 7 on home court
#4 Oklahoma City Thunder vs #5 Denver Nuggets
OK City was a Top 5 O this season, but you have to wonder if that will take a step back as they traded a scorer like Jeff Green at the Trade Deadline for a defender like Kendrick Perkins...Perk only gives the Thunder about 5 points per game, while Green was more like 16 ppg...GM Sam Presti thought that in order for his team to get out of Round 1 and actually compete in a playoff run they were going to need to get tougher on the interior hence the Green for Perkins trade...OK City was always a good rebounding team, and that only improves with a guy like Perkins...The team is led of course by Kevin Durant...Last season Durant became the youngest scoring champ ever (21) and this season he won the scoring title again...PG Russell Westbrook continued his development this season with increased #'s across the board...James Harden provides a spark off the bench, as does Eric Maynor...Thabo Sefolosha and Nick Collison contribute to the Thunder too...Wonderful job being done for this organization by Coach Scott Brooks
Since the Nuggets traded Carmelo Anthony for a ton of Knicks players they have gone 19-7...stunning achievement for Coach George Karl and his squad...The roster is now better suited to play some good Team D, and be able to shoot the ball well too which has Karl all-smiles...Danilo Gallinari, Raymond Felton, and Wilson Chandler have all provided skill and depth to the Nuggets...Ty Lawson, Aaron Afflalo, and J.R. Smith are major contributors too...Kenyon Martin, Chris Anderson, Nene, and Al Harrington all provide skill and depth to the frontcourt...
Things are rolling for Denver since the Melo trade, and the Perkins trade may have the Thunder wondering about their identity...but...all that said I am taking OK City to win Game 7 at home
craig.ballard@hotmail.com ...follow me on twitter @craigballard77
Monday, April 11, 2011
J.P. Arencibia
My name is Craig Ballard, and I am a Jays fan...
No this is not another one of our AA meetings that we hold on this blog site (AA being Alex Anthopoulos - the GM of YOUR TORONTO BLUE JAYS), but we will be looking at someone that AA will have a TON riding on going forward...
I think we would all agree that the strength of this organization 2012+ is the young, high-upside pitching...Let's remember that talent works for a few innings, or every fifth day...The common thread is the C that talent is pitching to...J.P. Arencibia could be our guy...Let's take a look...
The Jays got a very good 2010 from C John Buck, but the time for J.P. to play everyday at the MLB level was surely now...He spent 2009 and 2010 at AAA Las Vegas where his power stroke was on display...Jonathan Paul Arencibia (who was drafted back in 2004 by Seattle, but did not sign with them allowing our old friend J.P. Ricciardi to draft him in the 1st round in 2007) hit 31 HR's at AAA in '10 with an impressive .301 average...in '09 and '10 he hit 30+ doubles...He has always shown above-average power (to all fields)...Things really began to go BOOM for J.P. after he had LASIK eye surgery prior to his monster 2010 season...Arencibia projects to around .255 with 20+ HR's which is pretty good for a MLB C, but as Jays fans we are hoping for a star here...For that to happen a major improvement needs to be his #'s as far as walks vs strikeouts...Way too few walks vs way too many strikeouts...The words "free swinger" will appear on every scouting report for the rest of his life...That is the book on J.P. and he needs to be able to make adjustments at the MLB level...He will need to work on shortening his swing a tad too...MLB hurlers will run 90+ mph heaters underneath your hands if you are not quick enough to get around on those
That all speaks to how J.P. fits into the batting order...What will really be asked of him is to handle this pitching staff...John Farrell is a great pitching mind...Pat Hentgen is a great pitching mind...Both will add to the already great work of Pitching Coach Bruce Walton to steer and guide the pitchers up until 7:05pm during the week...1:05pm on the weekends...10:05pm on the West Coast...Those are game times...Those are J.P.'s times...The staff is his to guide approx 5 out of every 6 games...I guess in football the Center-QB exchange could be muffed and lead to a turnover on any given play so surely that relationship is important, but does any other relationship in sports compare to what a Pitcher needs from his/her Catcher?!?! I am already struck by things like Kyle Drabek throwing 2-3 pitches in a row that are not his best and J.P. making the jog to the mound to interact with Drabek to calm him, and re-focus him...The fear is that a rookie C may not want to be a leader to a guy like a Romero, or Cecil, or Morrow...Guys who have been here already...For J.P. there are critical things like do the scouting work necessary - put in the appropriate film and study session - contribute and learn from every meeting...BE the leader...The #hustleandheart (I keep seeing that for the Jays on twitter!) leader...This city loved Buck Martinez, Ernie Whitt, and Pat Borders and in all honesty none of them were great at O, but they all led/supported the pitching staff...They all put in the necessary homework to have high baseball IQ's...J.P. has great potential...His bat will get him 125+ games so we need to see improved D too...
2011 has to be a year of development for the Jays, and for J.P....Currently Jose Molina is the #2 C...Molina usually C's for Brandon Morrow...That is one specific we will look at this season with J.P....Imperative that he get the starting nods on days where Morrow is pitching as these two need to develop their chemistry asap as both have potential to be huge for the Jays in 2012+
J.P. is already moving looser and easier behind the plate than we have ever seen him...If he continues to develop like he has been the Jays may have their guy at C...The Jays have a lot of C talent in the minors to be excited about...Guys like Carlos Perez, Travis D'Arnaud, and A.J. Jimenez will all get their shot to be every-day MLB C's, but the first opportunity to take the ball and run with it belongs to J.P. Arencibia...Good luck brother...
craig.ballard@hotmail.com and/or follow me on twitter @craigballard77
No this is not another one of our AA meetings that we hold on this blog site (AA being Alex Anthopoulos - the GM of YOUR TORONTO BLUE JAYS), but we will be looking at someone that AA will have a TON riding on going forward...
I think we would all agree that the strength of this organization 2012+ is the young, high-upside pitching...Let's remember that talent works for a few innings, or every fifth day...The common thread is the C that talent is pitching to...J.P. Arencibia could be our guy...Let's take a look...
The Jays got a very good 2010 from C John Buck, but the time for J.P. to play everyday at the MLB level was surely now...He spent 2009 and 2010 at AAA Las Vegas where his power stroke was on display...Jonathan Paul Arencibia (who was drafted back in 2004 by Seattle, but did not sign with them allowing our old friend J.P. Ricciardi to draft him in the 1st round in 2007) hit 31 HR's at AAA in '10 with an impressive .301 average...in '09 and '10 he hit 30+ doubles...He has always shown above-average power (to all fields)...Things really began to go BOOM for J.P. after he had LASIK eye surgery prior to his monster 2010 season...Arencibia projects to around .255 with 20+ HR's which is pretty good for a MLB C, but as Jays fans we are hoping for a star here...For that to happen a major improvement needs to be his #'s as far as walks vs strikeouts...Way too few walks vs way too many strikeouts...The words "free swinger" will appear on every scouting report for the rest of his life...That is the book on J.P. and he needs to be able to make adjustments at the MLB level...He will need to work on shortening his swing a tad too...MLB hurlers will run 90+ mph heaters underneath your hands if you are not quick enough to get around on those
That all speaks to how J.P. fits into the batting order...What will really be asked of him is to handle this pitching staff...John Farrell is a great pitching mind...Pat Hentgen is a great pitching mind...Both will add to the already great work of Pitching Coach Bruce Walton to steer and guide the pitchers up until 7:05pm during the week...1:05pm on the weekends...10:05pm on the West Coast...Those are game times...Those are J.P.'s times...The staff is his to guide approx 5 out of every 6 games...I guess in football the Center-QB exchange could be muffed and lead to a turnover on any given play so surely that relationship is important, but does any other relationship in sports compare to what a Pitcher needs from his/her Catcher?!?! I am already struck by things like Kyle Drabek throwing 2-3 pitches in a row that are not his best and J.P. making the jog to the mound to interact with Drabek to calm him, and re-focus him...The fear is that a rookie C may not want to be a leader to a guy like a Romero, or Cecil, or Morrow...Guys who have been here already...For J.P. there are critical things like do the scouting work necessary - put in the appropriate film and study session - contribute and learn from every meeting...BE the leader...The #hustleandheart (I keep seeing that for the Jays on twitter!) leader...This city loved Buck Martinez, Ernie Whitt, and Pat Borders and in all honesty none of them were great at O, but they all led/supported the pitching staff...They all put in the necessary homework to have high baseball IQ's...J.P. has great potential...His bat will get him 125+ games so we need to see improved D too...
2011 has to be a year of development for the Jays, and for J.P....Currently Jose Molina is the #2 C...Molina usually C's for Brandon Morrow...That is one specific we will look at this season with J.P....Imperative that he get the starting nods on days where Morrow is pitching as these two need to develop their chemistry asap as both have potential to be huge for the Jays in 2012+
J.P. is already moving looser and easier behind the plate than we have ever seen him...If he continues to develop like he has been the Jays may have their guy at C...The Jays have a lot of C talent in the minors to be excited about...Guys like Carlos Perez, Travis D'Arnaud, and A.J. Jimenez will all get their shot to be every-day MLB C's, but the first opportunity to take the ball and run with it belongs to J.P. Arencibia...Good luck brother...
craig.ballard@hotmail.com and/or follow me on twitter @craigballard77
Saturday, April 9, 2011
New Raptors Regime
Since Bryan Colangelo's first full season at the helm of YOUR TORONTO RAPTORS things have regressed drastically leaving many like myself (perhaps you too?!) to hope that BC does not get extended by MLSE...His current contract expires end of summer 2011...The Raps have won a horrid 45% of the games they have played in the BC era...Question is what direction do you turn? I only believe in making a change if you believe someone better for the job exists (which is not what BC did when he fired Sam Mitchell only to replace him with a non-NBA Head Coach like Jay Triano)...Problem for BC and his #2 Maurizio Gherardini (and Triano) is that the list of candidates that would be better than them is growing every day as their own stock continues to plummet...
Does MLSE really want to re-up with BC at (or around) the $4 mill per season he makes now (HIGH $$$ for a GM)...Let's take a look at some possible replacements...new era's...
The first name we will look at will be loved by some, hated by others...Kevin Pritchard...The ex-Trail Blazers GM has a fantastic W-L and player-personnel record/history...He drafted marvelously for Portland (except of course taking Greg Oden instead of Kevin Durant in 2007 which has not worked out, but a lot of other good draft picks for KP)...His Draft Day dealings, and other trades as Portland GM ended up being very 1-sided (in KP's favor) and led to the media referring to other GM's as having been "Pritch-slapped"...KP has had a hand in great picks like Brandon Roy and LaMarcus Alrdridge, plus sound/astute value picks like Rudy Fernandez, Nicolas Batum, and Dante Cunningham...Now KP certainly has his detractors too as he has seemingly burned a lot a bridges over his years...He "Pritch-slapped" GM's to the point where they may be wary of dealing with him again, and his behaviour re Darius Miles was roundly criticised (remember he tried to block/stop other teams from signing Miles as a FA in late 2008 as that would be bad for the Blazers Salary Cap...He was described as "arrogant" by numerous team officials throughout the Association)
I personally would surely interview KP and see if he has matured as far as the way he is going to interact with fellow GM's...I love what he did at Portland...He brought a ton of young, high-upside talent into the organization
Also for me I would be looking to interview R.C. Buford, Greg Popovich, Danny Ferry, or Dennis Lindsey...In short, anyone associated with the San Antonio Spurs front office...The Spurs have a very multi-cultural roster like the Raps, but the Spurs actually draft/trade for/sign talent and depth...Anyone out of SA's front office knows and understands how to build and foster a culture of winning...
How about looking at a guy like Jeff Van Gundy...Will Stan Van Gundy last much longer in Orlando?!?! Perhaps the brothers could unite in the T-Dot...The Raps have offered zero consequences in the paint and at the rim for the entire BC era, that would not be an issue for a Van Gundy-led organization...Van Gundy would bring intensity and physicality to the organization...Surely worth an interview...Jeff may even consider bringing in ex-Raptor Mark Jackson to coach the team...The 2 have a marvelous rapport working together to call NBA games currently...Van Gundy would have a good enough relationship with several former NBA players that may be the next up-and-coming NBA coaches like the Raps tried before with Mitchell...Utah is trying that with Ty Corbin...Perhaps Van Gundy can attract a higher caliber potential than Corbin, like a Jackson or a Reggie Miller...
How about considering Earvin Magic Johnson...Magic has decades of experience working in a world-class organization and he would bring a ton to the table...Plus, Magic would really be a guy that could bring in next-level coaches...perhaps even NCAA studs (Brad Stevens, Jim Calhoun, Tom Izzo etc...likely not Coach K as he will likely remain at Duke) may be willing to make the jump to Coach in the NBA if it meant heading to a 1st class city like Toronto to work for a 1st class guy like Magic...
Is it possible that guys like Rick Adleman, Scott Skiles, or Rick Carlisle would leave their current NBA Head Coach jobs if you gave them GM duties as well?!?! Or at least significant say in player-personnel moves to come and Coach in the T-Dot...
I would look at Chip Engelland as a possible GM or Coach...Engelland spent 4 years at Duke playing and learning from Coach K...He has player-personnel experience in the Association...The last 6+ years he has served as Assistant Coach in San Antonio on Gregg Popovich's bench...How about learning from Coach K and Pop?!?! Wow...
If you are looking for a new GM that does have some experience in the Association as a player, and as a Exec then guys like Steve Kerr and Kevin McHale
That mostly looks at GM's (with a few Coach/GM options too)...Let's look at specific Head Coach candidates...
Will ex-Raps like Charles Oakley or Damon Stoudamire get NBA Head Coaching jobs at some point? Who is out there to replace Triano?
I would look at my #1 choice to be to go back to summer of 2010 and try to get Tom Thibodeau to come to Canada...Assuming that is not an option let's look at other possibilities...
I would have a look at Lawrence Frank who is currently on Boston's bench as an Assistant to Doc Rivers...Frank was once the Head Coach for the New Jersey Nets, and he will surely be an NBA Head Coach again soon
There are several candidates on the Lakers bench that have served (and learned from) Phil Jackson...Jim Cleamons has been there for years, and has NBA Head Coach experience with the Mavs...Brian Shaw has been there for years too and could follow Kurt Rambis' lead which is to take the Triangle O and the Lakers way (Phil Jackson's way really) to a new organization (Rambis however is currently experiencing growing pains trying to implement the Triangle in Minny...That may have to do with a poor roster though)
Could an in-house hire like P. J. Carlesimo do the job?!?!
In the D-League guys like Dee Brown (yes that Dee Brown), Jay Larranaga, Randy Livingston, Austin Ainge (son of ex-Jays player and current C's GM Danny Ainge), Darvin Ham (remember him?!), Eric Musselman (TON of coaching experience), and Chris Finch (Great Britain National Coach) are all getting the on-the-job experience/exposure needed to get an NBA promotion
We see a lot of potential here...Of course there is other potential too...As mentioned earlier the list of people who could do a better job than BC/Gherardini/Triano is growing every day...The latest word is that MLSE may be considering not doing a re-up with BC when it looked for a looong time like they would so perhaps we have a chance for improvement around here...Re-up with BC and you keep getting the same type of soft player that does not provide consequences in the paint and thus continue to lose more games than you win...
Go Raps Go
Follow me on twitter @craigballard77
craig.ballard@hotmail.com
Does MLSE really want to re-up with BC at (or around) the $4 mill per season he makes now (HIGH $$$ for a GM)...Let's take a look at some possible replacements...new era's...
The first name we will look at will be loved by some, hated by others...Kevin Pritchard...The ex-Trail Blazers GM has a fantastic W-L and player-personnel record/history...He drafted marvelously for Portland (except of course taking Greg Oden instead of Kevin Durant in 2007 which has not worked out, but a lot of other good draft picks for KP)...His Draft Day dealings, and other trades as Portland GM ended up being very 1-sided (in KP's favor) and led to the media referring to other GM's as having been "Pritch-slapped"...KP has had a hand in great picks like Brandon Roy and LaMarcus Alrdridge, plus sound/astute value picks like Rudy Fernandez, Nicolas Batum, and Dante Cunningham...Now KP certainly has his detractors too as he has seemingly burned a lot a bridges over his years...He "Pritch-slapped" GM's to the point where they may be wary of dealing with him again, and his behaviour re Darius Miles was roundly criticised (remember he tried to block/stop other teams from signing Miles as a FA in late 2008 as that would be bad for the Blazers Salary Cap...He was described as "arrogant" by numerous team officials throughout the Association)
I personally would surely interview KP and see if he has matured as far as the way he is going to interact with fellow GM's...I love what he did at Portland...He brought a ton of young, high-upside talent into the organization
Also for me I would be looking to interview R.C. Buford, Greg Popovich, Danny Ferry, or Dennis Lindsey...In short, anyone associated with the San Antonio Spurs front office...The Spurs have a very multi-cultural roster like the Raps, but the Spurs actually draft/trade for/sign talent and depth...Anyone out of SA's front office knows and understands how to build and foster a culture of winning...
How about looking at a guy like Jeff Van Gundy...Will Stan Van Gundy last much longer in Orlando?!?! Perhaps the brothers could unite in the T-Dot...The Raps have offered zero consequences in the paint and at the rim for the entire BC era, that would not be an issue for a Van Gundy-led organization...Van Gundy would bring intensity and physicality to the organization...Surely worth an interview...Jeff may even consider bringing in ex-Raptor Mark Jackson to coach the team...The 2 have a marvelous rapport working together to call NBA games currently...Van Gundy would have a good enough relationship with several former NBA players that may be the next up-and-coming NBA coaches like the Raps tried before with Mitchell...Utah is trying that with Ty Corbin...Perhaps Van Gundy can attract a higher caliber potential than Corbin, like a Jackson or a Reggie Miller...
How about considering Earvin Magic Johnson...Magic has decades of experience working in a world-class organization and he would bring a ton to the table...Plus, Magic would really be a guy that could bring in next-level coaches...perhaps even NCAA studs (Brad Stevens, Jim Calhoun, Tom Izzo etc...likely not Coach K as he will likely remain at Duke) may be willing to make the jump to Coach in the NBA if it meant heading to a 1st class city like Toronto to work for a 1st class guy like Magic...
Is it possible that guys like Rick Adleman, Scott Skiles, or Rick Carlisle would leave their current NBA Head Coach jobs if you gave them GM duties as well?!?! Or at least significant say in player-personnel moves to come and Coach in the T-Dot...
I would look at Chip Engelland as a possible GM or Coach...Engelland spent 4 years at Duke playing and learning from Coach K...He has player-personnel experience in the Association...The last 6+ years he has served as Assistant Coach in San Antonio on Gregg Popovich's bench...How about learning from Coach K and Pop?!?! Wow...
If you are looking for a new GM that does have some experience in the Association as a player, and as a Exec then guys like Steve Kerr and Kevin McHale
That mostly looks at GM's (with a few Coach/GM options too)...Let's look at specific Head Coach candidates...
Will ex-Raps like Charles Oakley or Damon Stoudamire get NBA Head Coaching jobs at some point? Who is out there to replace Triano?
I would look at my #1 choice to be to go back to summer of 2010 and try to get Tom Thibodeau to come to Canada...Assuming that is not an option let's look at other possibilities...
I would have a look at Lawrence Frank who is currently on Boston's bench as an Assistant to Doc Rivers...Frank was once the Head Coach for the New Jersey Nets, and he will surely be an NBA Head Coach again soon
There are several candidates on the Lakers bench that have served (and learned from) Phil Jackson...Jim Cleamons has been there for years, and has NBA Head Coach experience with the Mavs...Brian Shaw has been there for years too and could follow Kurt Rambis' lead which is to take the Triangle O and the Lakers way (Phil Jackson's way really) to a new organization (Rambis however is currently experiencing growing pains trying to implement the Triangle in Minny...That may have to do with a poor roster though)
Could an in-house hire like P. J. Carlesimo do the job?!?!
In the D-League guys like Dee Brown (yes that Dee Brown), Jay Larranaga, Randy Livingston, Austin Ainge (son of ex-Jays player and current C's GM Danny Ainge), Darvin Ham (remember him?!), Eric Musselman (TON of coaching experience), and Chris Finch (Great Britain National Coach) are all getting the on-the-job experience/exposure needed to get an NBA promotion
We see a lot of potential here...Of course there is other potential too...As mentioned earlier the list of people who could do a better job than BC/Gherardini/Triano is growing every day...The latest word is that MLSE may be considering not doing a re-up with BC when it looked for a looong time like they would so perhaps we have a chance for improvement around here...Re-up with BC and you keep getting the same type of soft player that does not provide consequences in the paint and thus continue to lose more games than you win...
Go Raps Go
Follow me on twitter @craigballard77
craig.ballard@hotmail.com
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