J.P. Arencibia

My name is Craig Ballard, and I am a Jays fan...

No this is not another one of our AA meetings that we hold on this blog site (AA being Alex Anthopoulos - the GM of YOUR TORONTO BLUE JAYS), but we will be looking at someone that AA will have a TON riding on going forward...

I think we would all agree that the strength of this organization 2012+ is the young, high-upside pitching...Let's remember that talent works for a few innings, or every fifth day...The common thread is the C that talent is pitching to...J.P. Arencibia could be our guy...Let's take a look...

The Jays got a very good 2010 from C John Buck, but the time for J.P. to play everyday at the MLB level was surely now...He spent 2009 and 2010 at AAA Las Vegas where his power stroke was on display...Jonathan Paul Arencibia (who was drafted back in 2004 by Seattle, but did not sign with them allowing our old friend J.P. Ricciardi to draft him in the 1st round in 2007) hit 31 HR's at AAA in '10 with an impressive .301 average...in '09 and '10 he hit 30+ doubles...He has always shown above-average power (to all fields)...Things really began to go BOOM for J.P. after he had LASIK eye surgery prior to his monster 2010 season...Arencibia projects to around .255 with 20+ HR's which is pretty good for a MLB C, but as Jays fans we are hoping for a star here...For that to happen a major improvement needs to be his #'s as far as walks vs strikeouts...Way too few walks vs way too many strikeouts...The words "free swinger" will appear on every scouting report for the rest of his life...That is the book on J.P. and he needs to be able to make adjustments at the MLB level...He will need to work on shortening his swing a tad too...MLB hurlers will run 90+ mph heaters underneath your hands if you are not quick enough to get around on those

That all speaks to how J.P. fits into the batting order...What will really be asked of him is to handle this pitching staff...John Farrell is a great pitching mind...Pat Hentgen is a great pitching mind...Both will add to the already great work of Pitching Coach Bruce Walton to steer and guide the pitchers up until 7:05pm during the week...1:05pm on the weekends...10:05pm on the West Coast...Those are game times...Those are J.P.'s times...The staff is his to guide approx 5 out of every 6 games...I guess in football the Center-QB exchange could be muffed and lead to a turnover on any given play so surely that relationship is important, but does any other relationship in sports compare to what a Pitcher needs from his/her Catcher?!?!  I am already struck by things like Kyle Drabek throwing 2-3 pitches in a row that are not his best and J.P. making the jog to the mound to interact with Drabek to calm him, and re-focus him...The fear is that a rookie C may not want to be a leader to a guy like a Romero, or Cecil, or Morrow...Guys who have been here already...For J.P. there are critical things like do the scouting work necessary - put in the appropriate film and study session - contribute and learn from every meeting...BE the leader...The #hustleandheart (I keep seeing that for the Jays on twitter!) leader...This city loved Buck Martinez, Ernie Whitt, and Pat Borders and in all honesty none of them were great at O, but they all led/supported the pitching staff...They all put in the necessary homework to have high baseball IQ's...J.P. has great potential...His bat will get him 125+ games so we need to see improved D too...

2011 has to be a year of development for the Jays, and for J.P....Currently Jose Molina is the #2 C...Molina usually C's for Brandon Morrow...That is one specific we will look at this season with J.P....Imperative that he get the starting nods on days where Morrow is pitching as these two need to develop their chemistry asap as both have potential to be huge for the Jays in 2012+

J.P. is already moving looser and easier behind the plate than we have ever seen him...If he continues to develop like he has been the Jays may have their guy at C...The Jays have a lot of C talent in the minors to be excited about...Guys like Carlos Perez, Travis D'Arnaud, and A.J. Jimenez will all get their shot to be every-day MLB C's, but the first opportunity to take the ball and run with it belongs to J.P. Arencibia...Good luck brother...

craig.ballard@hotmail.com and/or follow me on twitter @craigballard77

New Raptors Regime

Since Bryan Colangelo's first full season at the helm of YOUR TORONTO RAPTORS things have regressed drastically leaving many like myself (perhaps you too?!) to hope that BC does not get extended by MLSE...His current contract expires end of summer 2011...The Raps have won a horrid 45% of the games they have played in the BC era...Question is what direction do you turn?  I only believe in making a change if you believe someone better for the job exists (which is not what BC did when he fired Sam Mitchell only to replace him with a non-NBA Head Coach like Jay Triano)...Problem for BC and his #2 Maurizio Gherardini (and Triano) is that the list of candidates that would be better than them is growing every day as their own stock continues to plummet...

Does MLSE really want to re-up with BC at (or around) the $4 mill per season he makes now (HIGH $$$ for a GM)...Let's take a look at some possible replacements...new era's...

The first name we will look at will be loved by some, hated by others...Kevin Pritchard...The ex-Trail Blazers GM has a fantastic W-L and player-personnel record/history...He drafted marvelously for Portland (except of course taking Greg Oden instead of Kevin Durant in 2007 which has not worked out, but a lot of other good draft picks for KP)...His Draft Day dealings, and other trades as Portland GM ended up being very 1-sided (in KP's favor) and led to the media referring to other GM's as having been "Pritch-slapped"...KP has had a hand in great picks like Brandon Roy and LaMarcus Alrdridge, plus sound/astute value picks like Rudy Fernandez, Nicolas Batum, and Dante Cunningham...Now KP certainly has his detractors too as he has seemingly burned a lot a bridges over his years...He "Pritch-slapped" GM's to the point where they may be wary of dealing with him again, and his behaviour re Darius Miles was roundly criticised (remember he tried to block/stop other teams from signing Miles as a FA in late 2008 as that would be bad for the Blazers Salary Cap...He was described as "arrogant" by numerous team officials throughout the Association)

I personally would surely interview KP and see if he has matured as far as the way he is going to interact with fellow GM's...I love what he did at Portland...He brought a ton of young, high-upside talent into the organization

Also for me I would be looking to interview R.C. Buford, Greg Popovich, Danny Ferry, or Dennis Lindsey...In short, anyone associated with the San Antonio Spurs front office...The Spurs have a very multi-cultural roster like the Raps, but the Spurs actually draft/trade for/sign talent and depth...Anyone out of SA's front office knows and understands how to build and foster a culture of winning...

How about looking at a guy like Jeff Van Gundy...Will Stan Van Gundy last much longer in Orlando?!?!  Perhaps the brothers could unite in the T-Dot...The Raps have offered zero consequences in the paint and at the rim for the entire BC era, that would not be an issue for a Van Gundy-led organization...Van Gundy would bring intensity and physicality to the organization...Surely worth an interview...Jeff may even consider bringing in ex-Raptor Mark Jackson to coach the team...The 2 have a marvelous rapport working together to call NBA games currently...Van Gundy would have a good enough relationship with several former NBA players that may be the next up-and-coming NBA coaches like the Raps tried before with Mitchell...Utah is trying that with Ty Corbin...Perhaps Van Gundy can attract a higher caliber potential than Corbin, like a Jackson or a Reggie Miller...

How about considering Earvin Magic Johnson...Magic has decades of experience working in a world-class organization and he would bring a ton to the table...Plus, Magic would really be a guy that could bring in next-level coaches...perhaps even NCAA studs (Brad Stevens, Jim Calhoun, Tom Izzo etc...likely not Coach K as he will likely remain at Duke) may be willing to make the jump to Coach in the NBA if it meant heading to a 1st class city like Toronto to work for a 1st class guy like Magic...

Is it possible that guys like Rick Adleman, Scott Skiles, or Rick Carlisle would leave their current NBA Head Coach jobs if you gave them GM duties as well?!?!  Or at least significant say in player-personnel moves to come and Coach in the T-Dot...

I would look at Chip Engelland as a possible GM or Coach...Engelland spent 4 years at Duke playing and learning from Coach K...He has player-personnel experience in the Association...The last 6+ years he has served as Assistant Coach in San Antonio on Gregg Popovich's bench...How about learning from Coach K and Pop?!?! Wow...


If you are looking for a new GM that does have some experience in the Association as a player, and as a Exec then guys like Steve Kerr and Kevin McHale

That mostly looks at GM's (with a few Coach/GM options too)...Let's look at specific Head Coach candidates...

Will ex-Raps like Charles Oakley or Damon Stoudamire get NBA Head Coaching jobs at some point?  Who is out there to replace Triano? 

I would look at my #1 choice to be to go back to summer of 2010 and try to get Tom Thibodeau to come to Canada...Assuming that is not an option let's look at other possibilities...

I would have a look at Lawrence Frank who is currently on Boston's bench as an Assistant to Doc Rivers...Frank was once the Head Coach for the New Jersey Nets, and he will surely be an NBA Head Coach again soon

There are several candidates on the Lakers bench that have served (and learned from) Phil Jackson...Jim Cleamons has been there for years, and has NBA Head Coach experience with the Mavs...Brian Shaw has been there for years too and could follow Kurt Rambis' lead which is to take the Triangle O and the Lakers way (Phil Jackson's way really) to a new organization (Rambis however is currently experiencing growing pains trying to implement the Triangle in Minny...That may have to do with a poor roster though)

Could an in-house hire like P. J. Carlesimo do the job?!?!

In the D-League guys like Dee Brown (yes that Dee Brown), Jay Larranaga, Randy Livingston, Austin Ainge (son of ex-Jays player and current C's GM Danny Ainge), Darvin Ham (remember him?!), Eric Musselman (TON of coaching experience), and Chris Finch (Great Britain National Coach) are all getting the on-the-job experience/exposure needed to get an NBA promotion

We see a lot of potential here...Of course there is other potential too...As mentioned earlier the list of people who could do a better job than BC/Gherardini/Triano is growing every day...The latest word is that MLSE may be considering not doing a re-up with BC when it looked for a looong time like they would so perhaps we have a chance for improvement around here...Re-up with BC and you keep getting the same type of soft player that does not provide consequences in the paint and thus continue to lose more games than you win...

Go Raps Go

Follow me on twitter @craigballard77

craig.ballard@hotmail.com

AL East Preview...

...Boston Red Sox...

New to Red Sox Nation - OF Carl Crawford...IB Adrian Gonzalez...RP Bobby Jenks...RP Dan Wheeler

Peace, see ya later - 3B Adrian Beltre...C Victor Martinez...1B Mike Lowell

In the Red Sox organization keep an eye on...SS Jose Iglesias...Jose cost the BoSox a cool $8+ mill just to sign the Cuban in 2009...This guy is MLB-ready as far as his D...His O does need seasoning, and with Marco Scutaro currently at SS Jose will get a chance to continue his development in the Minors, but he is not far from being an every day SS for this club...

Apparently the BoSox did not have a sense of humor about missing out on the playoffs for the first time in 4 years...They went out and added a ton of talent and depth...Let's have a look...


The rotation remains the same likely with guys like Jon Lester, Josh Beckett, John Lackey, Clay Buchholz, and Dice-K...The bullpen still has Jonathan Papelbon closing, for now, but either Daniel Bard or Bobby Jenks can close, and still leave arms like Matt Albers, Dan Wheeler, and perhaps even Tim Wakefield to contribute to the 'pen (Wakefield entering his 19th season...wow)

The O was great in 2010, and could even be better in 2011...Crawford and A-Gon are added and should each thrive in Fenway (especially A-Gon...he hit 30+ HR's with zero protection in front or behind him in the lineupin San Diego...plus hitting at Fenway as apposed to Petco should be great for him too)...Jacoby Ellsbury returns from injury...Add J.D. Drew and David Ortiz and we see 5 great left-handed hitting bats for Manager Terry Francona...From the right side Boston has studs like Dustin Pedroia and Kevin Youkilis (both looking for healthy 2011's)...Question marks are SS Marco Scutaro, and C's Jarrod Saltalamacchia and Jason Varitek

Over/Under win total for the 2011 Red Sox...95.5...OVER...A return to form from guys like Lackey and Beckett will surely be required to get 96+ W's, but there is a ton of talent here so I will predict 96+ W's

...New York Yankees...

New to the Pin stripes - C Russell Martin...RP Pedro Feliciano...OF Andruw Jones

Escape from New York - 1B Lance Berkman...RP Kerry Wood...SP Any Pettitte...OF Austin Kearns...DH Nick Johnson

In the Yanks organization keep an eye on...SS Eduardo Nunez...The Yankees do have several legit prospects believe it or not (seems their rep is more like sell/trade the prospects for high-priced MLB-ready talent, but remember the Yanks drafted and raised the likes of Jeter/Posada/Mo Rivera/Cano to name a few)...Nunez is interesting to me as the Yanks refused to include him in a deal at the Trade Deadline last season with Seattle that would have landed them Cliff Lee...that puts a lot of pressure/expectations on a guy who will one day replace Derek Jeter (as if that wasn't going to be enough pressure already!!)

It is rare to see so many question marks to start a season for the New York Yankees...Not the least of which is the starting rotation...This unit is top-heavy with C.C. Sabathia and Phil Hughes as the 1-2 punch...There is a ton of potential drop-off after that...A.J. Burnett was terrible in 2010...Rookie Ivan Nova will be in the rotation (a rookie in the Yanks rotation?!?!)...Also guys like Bartolo Colon and Freddy Garcia will get a shot at a rotation spot...so could Kevin Millwood at some point (he is going to start the season in the Minors)...The bullpen is pretty damn good...Joba Chamberlain, Pedro Feliciano, and Rafael Soriano provide skill and depth as set-up men for Mo Rivera

The OF is solid, but perhaps not great...Brett Gardner, Curtis Granderson, and Nick Swisher...The IF is great...A-Rod...Derek Jeter...Robinson Cano...Mark Teixeira...wow...also Russell Martin and Jorge Posada to C and DH (Posada likely mostly a DH going forward)...The Yankees excel at getting runners on base, and then driving them home

Over/Under win total for the 2011 Yankees...91.5...UNDER...The rotation may struggle (unless GM Brian Cashman is able to dial-up the time machine and make it 2004ish again so Millwood, Colon, and Garcia could be good)...If Nova does not produce this team will not make the playoffs...I have little faith in A.J. Burnett (he did have a solid Spring though)...LOVE the 'pen and LOVE the IF, but a tad underwhelmed everywhere else

...YOUR TORONTO BLUE JAYS...

Welcome to Canada - OF Rajai Davis...OF Corey Patterson...RP Octavio Dotel...RP Frank Francisco...OF Juan Rivera...RP Jon Rauch...RP Carlos Villanueva

Hope you enjoyed your time north of the border - OF Vernon Wells...C John Buck...RP Kevin Gregg...1B Lyle Overbay...OF Fred Lewis...RP Scott Downs...SP Shaun Marcum

In the Jays organization keep an eye on...SS Adeiny Hechavarria...we hold AA meetings around here on a regular (AA standing for Alex Anthopoulos, GM of the Jays) and we know AA has already begun to stock young high-upside talent in the organization so there is a lot to choose from...For this entry guys like Arencibia, Lawrie, McGuire, Gose, Thames, and even Drabek will take a back seat to Adeiny Hechavarria...Jays spent an amazing $10 mill to match the Yanks offer for the Cuban SS, and they landed Hechavarria...The 21 year old is already MLB-ready with his glove, but his O does need work...His glove will get him to the MLB level quickly though and we should all be in for a treat with this kid...

The pitching staff in 2011 will get their first taste of new Manager John Farrell (ex-Red Sox Pitching Coach)...Ricky Romero, Kyle Drabek, and Brett Cecil all need to continue their development in 2011...Same can be said for Brandon Morrow (who could be their best pitcher) but he is starting the season on the DL...also we know Morrow will again be shut down early in '11 once he reaches 180 innings (His 2010 was shut down at the 146 inning mark)...Jays hope Jesse Litsch can regain his 2008 form...Jo-Jo Reyes will get a look as a starter too (at least in Morrow's absence)...The Jays hope to one day have Dustin McGowan regain his health and his form to be able to rejoin the club...The bullpen is walking wounded currently...Closer Frank Francisco is down...set-up lefty Jesse Carlson is down...set-up righty Octavio Dotel is down...That leaves David Purcey, Carlos Villanueva, Casey Janssen, Jason Frasor, and Shawn Camp to set-up closer Jon Rauch...

On O the Jays lose a ton of runs with the departures of Wells, Buck, Overbay, and Lewis...Much will be needed from rookie C J.P. Arencibia...Travis Snider is entering a shit-or-get-off-the-pot season (he has a ton of talent, but at this point it is time to start putting that on display)...Rajai Davis and Juan Rivera are new to the OF, while Edwin Encarnacion and Adam Lind will be the new 1B's (both played different positions in 2010 for the Jays)...A return to health, and form, is needed for 2B Aaron Hill...Jays also need the career of SS Yunel Escobar to get back on track...Of course the O is led by Jose Bautista...Many fear that Jose will step back, waaay back, in 2011...I predict another monster season...50+ HR's?!?!  Unlikely, but remember now this is a guy who really found an understanding of his swing in September of 2009, not just 2010...I think we have seen enough from Bautsita to suggest that he knows his swing so well at this point that he can continue to square up pitches and hit the ball hard consistently

Over/Under win total for the 2011 Jays...76.5...UNDER...as Jays fans we all want to see them win more than 76 games this season, but there are certain question marks on O, enough to scare me off of the OVER...For my friends that are Jays fans and keep predicting to me that this Jays team will shock people and make the play-offs in 2011 let's all take a deep breath...and remember a few things together here...If 2011 was ever on the radar for the play-offs then Doc Halladay would still be here (we remember it was Doc, AA, and Paul Beeston who all told us that Doc's timetable for winning was different than the Jays timetable...translation - Doc is ready now while Jays know their time is 2013 going forward)...plus if 2011 was going to be a play-off season then you don't allow John Buck and Scotty Downs to leave for nothing...you do not trade 2010 opening day starter Shaun Marcum for a 20 year old prospect...You likely don't even let Lyle Overbay go for nothing too...

Go Jays Go, but likely not much in 2011...2012 this team will be on the doorstep...2013+ this team will be special - perennial contenders thanks to AA

 ...Baltimore Orioles...

New toys for Buck Showalter - OF Vlad...3B Mark Reynolds...1B Derrek Lee...SS J.J. Hardy

OUT - SP Kevin Millwood...IF Ty Wigginton...OF Corey Patterson

In the O's organization keep an eye on...SS Manny Machado...very highly ranked out of High School last season and drafted by the O's #3 overall in last years Draft...he has very high upside on O, and should be a strong defender too...the comparison has been made to a young A-Rod...

This O's team hit just 133 HR's in 2010...They may get north of 200 in 2011 with these additions...Sure Vlad, Reynolds, and Lee strikeout a lot, but they sure can bang...Add that power to a lineup that has good hitters like Nick Markakis, Luke Scott, Adam Jones, and Brian Roberts and we see potential here...C Matt Wieters needs to hit to his potential...J.J. Hardy is the new SS and we will see how he fares in the AL East (he will surely be an upgrade over Cesar Izturis)...The 2010 O's were in the bottom-third of almost every O category, but this season should be better

The 2010 pitching was a punchline...but there is potential there going forward if these young arms can mature and produce to their potential...Brian Matusz, Brad Bergesen, Jake Arrieta, and Chris Tillman all pitched much better following the mid-season managerial change that brought in Buck Showalter...Veteran Jeremy Guthrie will be the #1 starter...The bullpen adds ex-Jays Kevin Gregg and Jeremy Accardo to go with Koji Uehara in the back of the O's 'pen...All of them have MLB experience as a closer...Alfredo Simon might have been the 2011 closer, but he has bigger issues ie an involuntary manslaughter charge from a recent incident in the Dominican Republic...Jason Berken and Jim Johnson will get innings out of the bullpen too

Over/Under win total for the 2011 O's...76.5...The O's really responded to Showalter when he took over mid-season in 2010...How about a last place team that went 34-24 with Showalter at the helm...impressive...OVER

...Tampa Bay Rays...

IN - OF/DH Manny Ramirez...OF/DH Johnny Damon

OUT - 1B Carlos Pena...SP Matt Garza...SS Jason Bartlett...OF Rocco Baldelli...RP Joaquin Benoit...RP Randy Choate...OF Carl Crawford...C Dioner Navarro...RP Rafael Soriano...RP Dan Wheeler...DH Willy Aybar...

In the Rays organization keep an eye on...OF Desmond Jennings...stud-in-the-making...Jennings will replace the departed Carl Crawford and should be the Rays everyday OF for years to come...not necessarily a power hitting threat, but he does make good contact and he can flat out fly around the bases...smart base-runner too...

This Rays team won more games than any MLB team in 2010...That is extremely unlikely to repeat in 2011...a TON of talent left TB in the off-season...Now don't get me wrong, a TON of young/high-upside talent remains...let's take a look...

The rotation lost Garza, but stud David Price remains...he is the #1, followed by guys like James Shields, Wade Davis, Jeff Niemann, and Jeremy Hellickson...There is surely potential there for a solid staff...Andy Sonnanstine could be a spot-starter too (if he doesn't become the closer)...In the 'pen Jake McGee and Joel Peralta will both get a shot to close games

The O still has stud Evan Longoria, but a huge drop-off after that...Jennings, B.J. Upton, and Ben Zobrist all need big years or they may see their playing time go to Man-Ram and/or Johnny Damon...Reid Brignac takes over at SS...he and double-play partner 2B Sean Rodriquez both need improved 2011 seasons...John Jaso and Kelly Shoppach are the Catchers (not much to like there)...1B will likely be Dan Johnson (yikes)

Over/Under win total for the 2011 Rays...84.5...UNDER...The starting staff could still be pretty good (especially Price) but the bullpen has potential to be awful, and the everyday lineup will take enough steps back that this Rays team will struggle in 2010

Check out the other MLB Previews too...and follow me on twitter @craigballard77

raig.ballard@hotmail.com

AL Central Preview

...Detroit Tigers...

IN - C Victor Martinez...RP Joaquin Benoit

OUT - SP Jeremy Bonderman (currently free agent)...OF Johnny Damon...SS Adam Everett...C Gerald Laird

In the Tigers organization keep an eye on...P Charlie Furbush...aside from the great name this lefty was impressive in the Minors in 2010 breezing through hitters at 3 different levels...MLB-ready fastball...nasty curveball...this guy racks up K's, but does need to improve his HR allowed #'s

The Tigers enter 2011 having numerous players with nagging injuries so we will look for this team to get better throughout the year as their health (hopefully) improves...The rotation is led by Justin Verlander, with Max Scherzer as a promising #2...after that the potential is there, but Detroit needs to see increased production from Rick Porcello and Armando Galarraga...Phil Coke will be interesting to watch as the former reliever will be in the rotation too...Coke has appeared in 158 MLB games (and had a lot of success) as a Yankee, and now a Tiger...only 1 of those times he was the starting pitcher...The bullpen is bolstered big-time by the addition of Joaquin Benoit...he will fit nicely with talent like Joel Zumaya and Ryan Perry, and from the left side we will see Daniel Schlereth and Brad Thomas get their shot to set-up closer Jose Valverde

The O will likely improve in 2011...C Victor Martinez is a sure .300 hitter added to the line-up...If you are a Tigers fan you wonder what type of 2011 will 1B Miguel Cabrera actually have...Clearly you need him to be at 100% as he is a monster in the middle of that lineup...Detroit needs a return to health, and form,  from Carlos Guillen...Also need improved play from SS Jhonny Peralta...All that being said I still think the major cogs in this line-up have to be OF's Austin Jackson and Brandon Boesch...Both need to have next-step seasons for Detroit to be able to either overcome the loss of Cabrera, or provide Cabrera protection in the lineup...Ryan Raburn could fit into that category too

Over/Under win total for the 2011 Tigers...84...OVER...we see potential in the pitching staff, and we see potential on O...Again we say let's watch Miguel Cabrera this season...should be very interesting in Michigan

...Chicago White Sox...

Welcome to the ChiSox - RP Jesse Crain...1B/DH Adam Dunn

Gone from the Ozzie Guillen madhouse - RP Bobby Jenks...OF Andruw Jones...RP Scott Linebrink...RP J.J. Putz...Man-Ram

In the ChiSox organization keep an eye on...P Chris Sale...stud-in-the-making for this team...will he be in the rotation or bullpen?...Sale (starter growing up) made his MLB debut quickly after being drafted #13 overall in the 2010 Draft...months later he was closing games for the White Sox, and his #'s were wow wow wow...23 IP - just 15 hits allowed with a whopping 32 K's...he kicked ass as a closer in his brief MLB stint, but he has 3 MLB-ready pitches and that sort of make-up is usually better suited for a starting pitcher...time will tell but this lefty looks good folks

Usually this team is interesting to watch because we remember White Sox GM Kenny Williams as a Blue Jays player in 1990 running over Jays 3B Coach John McClaren on one of the more bizarre sequences you will ever see, and because Manager Ozzie Guillen is his own walking reality tv show...This year the on-field antics may be worth a peak too...A lot of potential here for the Southsiders...Pitching staff could be damn good...Mark Buehrle, Gavin Floyd, John Danks, and Edwin Jackson give the club a solid 1 through 4...Philip Humber looks like he will be the #5 starter until Jake Peavy is able to get back on the mound...Can you imagine this staff if Peavy returns to form?!?!  A ton of potential here...The 'pen looks good too...Sale, Matt Thornton (Thornton is my fav lefty reliever in baseball), Sergio Santos, and Torontonian Jesse Crain provide skill and depth

The O has potential as well...OF's Alex Rios and Carlos Quentin have upside...as does1B Paul Konerko...New addition Adam Dunn should bring 40+ HR's to this lineup...SS Alexei Ramirez is solid...C A.J. Pierzynski needs a better 2011...Another good season will be required from Juan Pierre...Question marks with rookie 3B Brent Morel (as he is known more for his glove than his O) and 2B Gordon Beckham...MUCH more was expected of Beckham...ChiSox have to be hoping that with the hype pretty much dead now perhaps it will be a better opportunity for Beckham to thrive/produce at the MLB level

Over/Under win total for the 2011 White Sox...85.5...OVER...too much to like here...easy to believe 86+ wins is in the cards for the Chicago White Sox

...Minnesota Twins...

New to the Twins - SS Tsuyoshi Nishioka

OUT - RP Jesse Crain...RP Matt Guerrier...SS J.J. Hardy...2B Orlando Hudson...RP Jon Rauch...RP Brian Fuentes

In the Twins organization keep an eye on...OF Joe Benson...always had speed and D (great arm) with a decent bat, but last season the power was on display as he developed a swing that puts the ball in the air...let's see if the power was a 1-year wonder, or if he is adding that to his game...

Minny has won the AL Central 2 straight seasons...The pitching staff will have to come through for this team to 3-peat...SP's Carl Pavano and Francisco Liriano have great potential to be a 1-2 punch...Scott Baker (needs to get hits allowed down), Nick Blackburn (needs to get HR's allowed down), and Kevin Slowey (needs to get hits allowed waaaay down) provide potential for #3-4-5...If the Twins remain in contention we could see GM Bill Smith add a starter on the fly...The bullpen has potential...The set-up guys look strong in Matt Capps, Glen Perkins, Jose Mijares, Pat Neshek, and Jeff Manship...Joe Nathan returns as closer after missing 2010 with Tommy John surgery...Nathan was hit extremely hard in Spring Training so we will watch how he starts the 2011 season...It may take time (still) for him to be back to his old self

The O gets the return of Canadian banger Justin Morneau...He and C Joe Mauer are the core of this team, and the leaders on O...OF Delmon Young was finally producing to his potential in 2010, and a repeat performance is surely paramount for the Twins to have success in 2011...CF Denard Span took a step back in 2010...Span will get 620+ AB's so he needs to get back to his 2009 form...Speaking of return to 2009 form how about RF Michael Cuddyer...3B looks in good hands for years to come with Danny Valencia...Tsuyoshi Nishioka may or may not be known by you now, but he surely will be...and soon! ...26 year old came over from Japan as the Twins won the bidding rights for him at a cool $5.3 million...Switch-hitting SS who can also play 2B...great speed...great hitter...Question marks will be Jason Kubel and 2B Alexi Casilla...will either hit in 2011 (or at least hit better than 2010)

Over/Under win total for the 2011 Twins...86...UNDER...I see a lot to like on O, but a pitching staff that could see its share of problems...

...Cleveland Indians...

Welcome to the Cleve - SS Adam Everett...(welcome back) OF Austin Kearns...IF Orlando Cabrera

No notable departures...

In the Indians organization keep an eye on...P Joe Gardner...nasty MLB-ready sinker on some now-you-see-me, now-you-don't level...this guy was good in 2010 and should be a MLB pitcher in the next few years

Things have gotten rotten in the Cleve...Remember the days when Jacobs Field was a sure sellout (TONS of them - a record 455 straight sellouts at one point)...Would you believe that no team had worse attendance in MLB in 2010 than Cleveland...Back-to-back miserable 60+ wins seasons have killed the spirit and the attendance of Tribe fans...Chris Antonetti takes over as new GM and he has significant work to do...In the rotation you have a proven guy like Fausto Carmona...The rest of the crew showed signs of being good in the second half of 2010...Still much more will be required Justin Masterson, Mitch Talbot, Carlos Carrasco, David Huff, and Josh Tomlin...The bullpen has Frank Herrmann, Rafael Perez, Joe Smith, and Tony Sipp to set up closer Chris Perez

The O needs several guys to return to form, but first they need a return to health...Grady Sizemore, Carlos Santana, and Travis Hafner all are would-be offensive leaders for this club, but all have been plagued by injuries (for Sizemore and Hafner the injury bug has bitten them in multiple years now)...3B Jayson Nix and 1B Matt LaPorta both had miserable Springs, but both need to bring 20+ HR's to this lineup...SS Asdrubal Cabrera hopes for a healthy 2011 so he can get back to his 2009 form...Veterans Orlando Cabrera and Adam Everett provide depth for the middle IF positions...Young Luis Valbuena will get playing time in the IF too...In the OF let's watch Shin-Soo Choo...Choo hits .300+ annually, and has hit career highs in HR's 3 straight seasons...Young Michael Brantley will have to pick his game way up, or Austin Kerns could take his AB's

Over/Under win total for the 2011 Indians...71...UNDER...Bullpen has potential, but I think a third straight season of wins in the 60's is the fate of the 2011 Cleveland Indians

 ...Kansas City Royals...

Welcome to our rebuilding project in KC - OF Melky Cabrera...SS Alcides Escobar...OF Jeff Francoeur...SP Jeff Francis...2B Joaquin Arias...OF Lorenzo Cain...SP Vin Mazzaro...3B Pedro Feliz...RP Jeremy Jeffress

Now leaving KC (you're welcome) - SP Zack Greinke...3B Josh Fields (although Fields goes to Pittsburgh which is pretty much KC of the National League, if not worse)...SS Yuniesky Betancourt

In the Royals organization keep an eye on...3B Mike Moustakas...1B Eric Hosmer...C Will Myers... you can imagine there is a ton of talent in this organization as the Big Club loses so damn much they always get high draft picks (we saw the Rays build a perenial playoff team that way, but it is a tough road)...these 3 are in the plans for the future of KC as everyday starters...we will see all of them as soon as 2012, possibly even as early as this season (so much talent we will likely see them as September call-ups at least)...They project to group with Billy Butler as the middle of KC's order for years to come

Greinke, Gill Meche, and Brian Bannister are all gone leaving a lot of rotation spots open...Guys like Vin Mazzaro, Kyle Davies, Bruce Chen, Sean O'Sullivan, Luke Hochevar, and Canadian Jeff Francis will all get their shot at the rotation...The closer on this team is lights-out...Joakim Soria is about as good as it gets...Getting the ball to Soria in a Save situation is tough for the Royals...Robinson Tejada is likely the best set-up man on the roster, plus Jeremy Jeffress will get a shot too (Jeffress one of the many young talents that came back from Milwaukee in the Zack Greinke)

The O could get a boost from new OF's Jeff Francouer, Melky Cabrera, and Lorenzo Cain...Cain came over along with SS Alcides Escobar in the Greinke trade...Billy Butler proved he belongs at the MLB level...Wilson Betemit should see plenty of playing time, likely at 1B/3B...Mike Aviles should see action at 3B and 2B...If Pedro Feliz can regain his 20+ HR form from a few years ago then he will see time at 3B too...Not a whole lot to like here (yet)...There is plenty of O coming through the system, and plenty of young talent at the MLB level for the future to look very bright in KC

Over/Under win total for the 2011 Royals...69...UNDER...2013+ looks strong for the Royals...2011, not so much

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AL West Preview

...Texas Rangers...

Welcome to the Lone Star State - SP Brandon Webb...C Yorvit Torrealba...RP Arthur Rhodes

OUT - OF Jeff Francoeur...OF/DH Vlad...IB Jorge Cantu...SP Rich Harden...SP Brandon McCarthy...C Bengie Molina (currently FA)

In the Rangers organization keep an eye on...P Tanner Scheppers...This guy has a Justin Verlander-type upside...Mid-high 90's fastball with above average breaking pitches...question is do the Rangers build him as starting pitcher, or reliever

The defending AL Champs lost SP Cliff Lee in the off-season after paying a heavy price to get him (I am a fan of Justin Smoak and his potential)...That does reduce the skill on the staff, clearly...Let's take a look...2011 opens with a rotation of C.J. Wilson, Colby Lewis, Matt Harrison, and Derek Holland.  Tommy Hunter will join this crew when he gets healthy...Actually some nice 3's to low 4's era potential in all of those pitchers, so pretty good...Other arms like Brandon Webb (will start the season on the DL) and Michael Kirkman could see time in the rotation in 2011 too...We could see a Scott Feldman sighting in 2011 too if he can regain his form...The bullpen has plenty of talent with guys like Alexi Ogando, Mark Lowe, David Bush, Brett Tomko, Pedro Strop, Mason Tobin...all of the above will get a chance to set-up for closer Neftali Perez...I heart Perez...this guy has an electric arm and is just getting his career started

The #1 O in MLB from 2010 adds 3B Adrian Beltre and C Mike Napoli...This is significant as most Championship teams are able to adjust on the fly (add a player or two through in-season trades) and the addition of Beltre gives the Rangers a potential trade piece in Michael Young...time will tell...The OF is very good with mega-star Josh Hamilton, plus Nelson Cruz and Pedro Borbon have skills to pay the bills...Double-play duo of Elvis Andrus and Ian Kinsler need to be a bit more productive/consistent...The question marks on this O are 1B and DH where any of Chris Davis, Mitch Moreland, and David Murphy need to step up and assume the everyday role (likely Young can produce at DH, but that still leaves 1B as a position to address for the Rangers)

Over/Under win total for the 2011 Rangers...86.5...The holes on this team are minor and look like they are fixable...I think this team should surely win 87+ games in 2011...OVER

...LA Angels...

IN - OF Vernon Wells...RP Scott Downs

OUT - RP Scot Shields...DH Hideki Matsui...3B Kevin Frandsen

In the Angels organization keep an eye on...C Hank Conger...He was part of the reason the Angels were able to trade C Mike Napoli as part of the Vernon Wells trade...Napoli led the Angels C's in HR's etc, but they feel that the 23 year old Conger will fill those shoes...he has always been able to hit...He is Korean - I cannot recall a Korean C...several pitchers and Shin-Soo Choo is a position player, but no catcher's

This team needs several players to step up...For this team to get back on top in the AL West guys like OF Peter Bourjos, IF Maicier Izturis, IF Erick Aybar, and C Jeff Mathis need to take their games to the next level...The O gets a return to health from 1B Kendry Morales, and adds OF Vernon Wells...Bobby Abreu needs to regain his form too...2B Howie Kendrick needs a bit of a more polished hitting attack for the Angels in 2011...Torii Hunter put together a pretty healthy 2010, but needs to regain the O skills he showed in 2009 (his best season as an Angel, but there were injury issues in '09 so no one wants a repeat of that of course, just the production)

The rotation looks solid...Veterans Jered Weaver, Dan Haren, Ervin Santana, Joel Pineiro will all get several starts for this team...Scott Kazmir will get a chance to regain his form in Anaheim too...very solid starting staff here...The bullpen has potential too...The additions of Scotty Downs and Hisanori Takahashi help add skill and depth...Other arms like Kevin Jepsen, Rich Thompson, Michael Kohn, and Jordan Walden all have great potential to contribute too...We may see Trevor Bell and Francisco Rodriquez get their chances as well...The closer will likely be Fernando Rodney

Over/Under win total for the 2011 Angels...83...OVER...A lot of players need to rebound from down seasons in '10, but the potential is here for a great 2011 Angels club

...Oakland A's...

IN for the Athletics - DH Hideki Matsui...SP Brandon McCarthy...OF Josh Willingham...SP Rich Harden...OF David DeJesus...RP Brian Fuentes

OUT - DH Jack Cust...3B Akinori Iwamura...OF Gabe Gross...SP Vin Mazzaro

In the A's organization keep an eye on...Chris Carter...this 24 year old has been a top prospect for years and in 2011 he should get a chance to be an everyday OF...BIG power upside...We remember his MLB debut with Oakland last season and started 0 for 33 (yikes)...last 4 years in the Minors he averages 30+ HR's which is why I look for him to get playing time in Oakland as their team O was a punchline in 2010...

Additions to the O like Carter, Matsui, Willingham, and DeJesus are nice, but this team still is likely without a 25+ HR hitter...Guys like Kevin Kouzmanoff, Cliff Pennington, Mark Ellis, Daric Barton, Coco Crisp, Connor Jackson, Kurt Suzuki, and Ryan Sweeney are decent at best...I like the A's O less than any other team in baseball (except perhaps the Mariners...oops sorry, and the Padres)

The pitching staff has certain potential...Trevor Cahill, Brett Anderson, and Gio Gonzalez are really good...Dallas Braden needs to develop consistency (and not be such an ass)...The A's would be thrilled if they got production form the return of Rich Harden, and newcomer Brandon McCarthy...Tyler Ross will get a shot to be in the rotation too...The bullpen has depth... Craig Breslow, Michael Wuertz, Jerry Blevins, Brad Ziegler, Joey Devine, Philip Humber, and Trystan Magnuson will all get a chance to set up closer Andrew Bailey...Throw Brian Fuentes into that mix too as he has closer experience, and could be a legit 8th inning set-up man as well

Over/Under win total for the 2011 A's...84...UNDER...A ton of potential as far as pitching, but I am very underwhelmed with the batting order in Oakland...

...Seattle Mariners...

IN - DH Jack Cust...SS Brendan Ryan...C Miquel Olivo

OUT - C Josh Bard...C Rob Johnson...1B Casey Kotchman...3B Jose Lopez

In the Mariners organization keep an eye on...Dustin Ackley...#2 overall pick in last years Draft...up in the air as far as what position Ackley will play, but his upside on O is huge...He is regarded as a can't-miss prospect on O and with that said he should get a chance to make the Big Club out of Spring Training, or at least be in the Bigs during 2011 as he is the best hitter in the organization not name IchiroNew Manager Eric Wedge has his work cut out for him...MLB's worst O in 2010 has numerous areas to improve...His best hope is a 1-2 at the top of the line-up in Ichiro and Chone Figgins hit to their potential...The M's also need Ackley, 1B Justin Smoak, and OF Michael Saunders to begin to hit at the MLB level too...Much will be needed from newcomer Jack Cust...OF Milton Bradley gets his 38th chance to play at the MLB level despite his embarrassing/unacceptable attitude/behaviour...Brendan Ryan will get a shot to play everyday (likely at 2B) and he needs to return to his 2009 form at the plate 

The pitching staff is top-heavy...Felix Hernandez is outstanding...Justin Vargas and Doug Fister appear to be on the rise...After that there is potential for significant drop-off...M's hope Canadian Eric Bedard can rejuvenate his career...Luke French, David Pauley, and Michael Pineda will get chances in the rotation too...The bullpen is slim pickings...Closer David Aardsma and set-up man Brandon League are about all there is to like

Over/Under win total for the 2011 M's...70...UNDER...Smoak, Saunders, and Ackley will all be productive MLB hitters, but perhaps not as soon as 2011...This roster leaves a lot to be desired (especially on O)

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NL East Preview

...Philadelphia Phillies...

IN - SP Cliff Lee

OUT - OF Jayson Werth...SP Jamie Moyer...3B Pedro Feliz

 In the Phillies organization keep an eye on...OF Domonic Brown...wow amazing athlete...great football player...great pitcher...but Brown projects as a great MLB OF...Surely needs to improve on pitch selection (chasing too many balls instead of only swinging at strikes) but this kid has tools...speed, power, hits for average...projects to be a 30/30 left-hand hitting stud
The Phillies were the winners of the Cliff Lee sweepstakes returning the coveted lefty to the City of Brotherly Love...he gets paired with Doc Halladay, Cole Hamels, and Roy Oswalt to form an amazing rotation...This group is particularly good at Citizens Bank Park...Joe Blanton figures to be the 5th starter...Ryan Madson, Danys Baez, Jose Contreras, and J.C. Romero will set-up closer Brad Lidge again in 2011 (Lidge will begin the season on the DL)

The pitching was great in 2010, but not good enough to carry the club to the World Series as the O was inconsistent...plagued by injuries all season this group was well below their potential...Gone is Jayson Werth which leaves that much more slack for guys like 1B Ryan Howard, 2B Chase Utley (Utley will start the season injured) SS Jimmy Rollins, 3B Placido Polanco, OF's Raul Ibanez and OF Shane Victorino to pick up...Rookie Dominic Brown will get a shot too...C Carlos Ruiz had a career year in '10 and the Phillies need that type of production to continue...

Over/Under win total for the 2011 Phillies...96.5...The pitching at home should be great, even if the O continues to struggle...High 50's in home wins should be do-able meaning a .500 road record should put this team OVER 96.5 W's...Health will be the #1 concern for this team...Philly has a several year run now of improving on their previous season W total

...Atlanta Braves...

Welcome to Hotlanta - Manager Fredi Gonzalez...RP Scott Linebrink...RP George Sherrill...2B Dan Uggla

OUT - retired great Bobby Cox...OF Melky Cabrera...OF Rick Ankiel...OF Matt Diaz...1B Derrek Lee...RP Billy Wagner...1B Troy Glaus...3B Omar Infante

In the Braves organization keep an eye on...RP Craig Kimbrel (sidearmer)...you can imagine that in an organization as great as Atlanta there are actually several young players to keep an eye on, but Kimbrel gets the billing here based on his MLB debut in 2010...this kid has a 95-97 mph heater with MLB ready Slurve and he was not over-matched as a call-up in 2010, in fact his #'s were gaudy (4-0...1 Save...20.2 IP allowing only 9 hits while striking out an amazing 40 MLB batters)...if Kimbrel can further fine-tune his control then he will be a mainstay on the MLB roster for years to come

For the first time in ages the Braves enter a season without Bobby Cox at the helm...His presence will not be gone though as he lives down the street from new Manager Fredi Gonzalez and the two get together regularly as friends...The one thing that remains the same is that the Braves have a great rotation...Derek Lowe, Tommy Hanson, Jair Jurrjens, and Tim Hudson provide skill and depth...we will look for youngster Kris Medlan to be the 5th starter, with young Mike Minor at AAA almost ready...George Sherrill and Scott Linebrink were added to the back of the bullpen to go with Kimbrel (with Billy Wagner retiring lets look for Kimbrel to do the closer job)

2010 Braves O was great at getting on base, but only decent at scoring runs...They add 2B Dan Uggla and his 30+ HR bat...Rookie 1B Freddie Freeman is a born hitter...2nd year RF Jason Heyward should be a cinch to improve on his rookie campaign (stud-in-the-making)...OF Martin Prado needs to continue his strong play...Question marks here are what will you get from SS Alex Gonzalez?  What will you get from 3B Chipper Jones?  Will the real Nate McLouth show up in 2011?  C Brian McCann was good in 2010, but they need to return to his 2009 form where he was very very good

Over/Under win total for the 2011 Braves...88.5...UNDER...A lot to like in Hotlanta, but I could see 86-87 as their upside so I will take the under here...IF Freeman and Kimbrel play ahead of their curve then this Braves team could make noise though

...New York Mets...

IN - Manager Terry Collins...

OUT - SP John Maine...P Kelvim Escobar...OF Chris Carter...RP Pedro Feliciano

In the Mets organization keep an eye on...OF Cory Vaughn (son of former MLB star Greg Vaughn) and P Juan Urbina (son of former MLB great Ugeth Urbina)...both are very young...both have MLB pedigrees...both have done better than expected since becoming pro players in the Mets organization...Vaughn hit poorly in College, but very well in his first pro-season in 2010 (Class A)...Urbina has nice/smooth mechanics to go with his 93 mph heater

New Skipper Terry Collins may be taking over at the perfect time as I cannot recall a season in years with such low expectations for the New York Mets...Also new to the Mets is GM Sandy Alderson aka Mr Moneyball...Alderson has already been busy cutting guys like 2B Luis Castillo and SP Oliver Perez despite money being owed to those players...At 2B we will look at guys like Ruben Tejada, Daniel Murphy, and Rule 5 Brad Emaus (Emaus will be returned to the Jays by rule if he does not make the MLB club) to get a good chance...IB Ike Davis and C Josh Thole will get their chance to show they can be everyday players along with 3B David Wright...other Mets like OF Jason Bay, SS Jose Reyes, and OF Carlos Beltran need a return to health and steady production...

The rotation is of course led by Johan Santana, but his most recent surgery (rotator cuff) has him out likely at least 1/2 the season...That leaves a lot of slack and pressure for guys like R.A. Dickey, Jon Niese, and Mike Pelfrey...Could we see veteran Chris Young get a chance in NY too?...The bullpen has Francisco Rodriquez and Bobby Parnell returning to the squad, but on the mend...D.J. Carrasco should get a lot of work...Manny Acosta and Chris Capuano (potential starter) could see a lot of action too

Over/Under win total for the 2011 Mets...77.5...OVER...low expectations should allow this team to focus on the 9-inning game at hand each day...There still is potential in the batting order, and once Johan returns the pitching staff gets that much better too

 

...Florida Marlins...

Taking their talents to South Beach - LeBron James...Chris Bo(wait a minute...my bad)...let's try that again...IN - C John Buck...SP Javier Vasquez...3B Omar Infante...RP Edward Mujica...RP Randy Choate

OUT - OF Cameron Maybin...2B Dan Uggla...RP Jorge Sosa

In the Marlins organization keep an eye on...SS Ozzie Martinez...the Marlins (as usual) have a ton of young studs on their MLB roster getting their careers started...Martinez may be the next stud-in-the-making in Florida...he had a brief stint in 2010 with the big club and we saw his potential on display...above-average middle-infield skills on D...above average hitter too - not for power per se, but a very good hitter

Edwin Rodriquez is on a precarious 1-year deal to Manage this club...His long term future depends on can he become BFF with the temperamental SS Hanley Ramirez...Hanley is a MVP talent and he needs to step us as a leader for this organization...new C John Buck and new SP Javier Vazquez should provide #'s and leadership too...OF Mike Stanton (stud-in-the-making) needs to continue his development in '11...Omar Infante and Emilio Bonifacio will likely get playing time in the IF in 2011...For the Marlins to compete in 2011 for the NL East crown they will surely need the likes of 1B Gaby Sanchez, and OF's Logan Morrison and Chris Coghlan to perform (at least 2 of those 3 anyway)...

The rotation is top-heavy with Cy Young caliber at the top in Josh Johnson...Ricky Nolasco is a solid top-of-the-rotation guy too, as is Vazquez...Anibal Sanchez and Chris Volstad need to step up their games in 2011 for FLA...The bullpen has several quality arms in closer Leo Nunez, and set-up men like Edward Mujica, Clay Hensley, Brian Sanches, Randy Choate, and Ryan Webb

Over/Under win total for the 2011 Marlins...81.5...OVER...I see a solid squad here...some guys with huge upside potential...


                            ...Washington Nationals...

IN - OF Jayson Werth...OF Matt Stairs...OF Rick Ankiel...RP Todd Coffey

OUT - OF Adam Dunn...RP Miguel Batista...OF Josh Willingham...OF Nyjer Morgan

In the Nationals organization keep an eye on...Bryce Harper...massive hype for Harper...6'3" 225 pounder...looks like a can't miss stud at the plate...he wisely chose a College in 2010 that plays in a league that uses wooden bats - College of Southern Nevada of the Scenic West Athletic Conference (SWAC) - he won the SWAC Player of the Year award...his team's previous record for HR's was 12, Harper belted 31

I am in the majority in believing that the monster 7 years $127 million contract to sign Jayson Werth was a tactical error...I would have sat on that dough and waited at least one more season before spending crazy dough on a FA...Werth benefited in Philly from a great hitters ballpark and enough talent around him in the lineup to give him protection...Washington provides none of that...At every position I am underwhelmed...OF has guys like Roger Bernadina, Rick Ankiel, Matt Stairs, and Werth...not a lot there to like...The IF has Ryan Zimmerman, and young potential like Ian Desmond and Danny Espinosa will surely get their chance to show that they can play the middle-IF every day...An aging Ivan Rodriguez does the catching...

The pitching staff is without injured ace Stephen Strasburg and there is not much here to like...Jordan Zimmerman could be good, but that is about it...I am underwhelmed with guys like Tom Gorzelanny, Livan Hernandez, Jason Marquis, Ross Detwiler, and John Lannan...The bullpen actually shows potential...Drew Storen, Tyler Clippard,  Todd Coffey, Collin Balester, Sean Burnett, Doug Slaton, and Henry Rodriguez are some of the lively arms in the Nationals 'pen...veteran Chad Gaudin is in the organization too

Over/Under win total for the 2011 Nationals...71.5...UNDER...This team needs Strasburg and Harper asap...

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NL Central Preview

...Cincinnati Reds...

IN - P Dontrelle Willis...SS Edgar Renteria

OUT - SS Orlando Cabrera...SP Aaron Harang...RP Arthur Rhodes

In the Reds organization keep an eye on...Aroldis Chapman...Jays tried very hard to land Chapman, but were runners-up to the Reds...he pitched at the MLB level in 2010 and the "Cuban Missile" certainly impressed as a rookie...he had most of the top 10 fastest pitches in MLB in '10 getting as high as 105 mph on the radar gun...in his rookie season the Reds used him as a 6th, 7th, or 8th inning reliever, but we may see him converted to a starting pitcher in 2011

The Reds have a nice starting staff, young too...Bronson Arroyo is the veteran with young talent like Johnny Cueto, Travis Wood, Mike Leake, and Homer Bailey in the rotation (Leake may be in the bullpen, and Bailey will begin 2011 on DL)...At some point the Reds hope Edison Volquez can contribute like he has in the past, but a surgery and a MLB imposed 50 game suspension for using a performance enhancing substance has him starting the season on the sidelines...Chapman should prove to be a sick set-up man, especially if he gets his control in order...Nick Masset and Bill Bray also help set-up closer Francisco Cordero

The O is good...Led by Canadian Joey Votto (NL MVP) this team adds SS Edgar Renteria and OF Fred Lewis, and they need/get production from guys like Drew Stubbs, Jay Bruce, and Jonny Gomes, plus veteran Scott Rolen and Brandon Phillips...potential question marks are SS Paul Janish (he may get a chance to play over E-Rent early on) and C's Ramon Hernandez and Ryan Hanigan...OF Chris Heisey will likely get a shot to contribute too

The Over/Under win total for the 2011 Reds is...85.5...Lots of potential on O, and a young high-upside pitching staff

...St. Louis Cardinals...

IN - OF Lance Berkman...P Brian Tallet...2B Ryan Theriot...C Gerald Laird

OUT - SS Brendan Ryan...SP Jeff Suppan...3B Aaron Miles

In the Cards organization keep an eye on...Zack Cox...Albert Pujols may or may not be in St. Louis after 2011, but if he stays he is going to love having Cox as a teammate...Cox is a pure hitter and is sure to be so on the MLB level some day soon...This kid has the kind of upside at the plate that can provide legit O to support Pujols

The Albert Pujols contract situation took all the press in the off-season, but I like the move they made bringing in Berkman...that makes Matt Holliday and Berkman in the last few years as additions to surround Phat Albert...More will be needed from CF Colby Rasmus...Someone needs to step up as a legit lead-off and/or #2 hitter to set the table in St Lou...Theriot is potentially an offensive upgrade at SS...that leaves 2B Skip Schumaker, 3B David Friese, and C Yadier Molina as the question marks in St Louis

The pitching staff was dealt a major blow late Feb when it lost 2010 Cy Young runner-up Adam Wainwright, likely for the season...The last few years have been great for Wainwright and he has elevated to the #1 on the staff (Top 5 in the NL)...His loss means more will be needed from guys like Chris Carpenter, Jake Westbrook, and Jaime Garcia...Garcia will be interesting to watch as he has major upside, but had a horrible Spring Training...Closer Ryan Franklin wasn't as dominant in 2010 as he was in 2009, but very good none the less...Ex-Jays Trevor Miller and Brian Tallet, plus guys like Jason Motte and Kyle McClellan bridge the game from starter to closer

The Over/Under win total for the 2011 Cardinals is...83.5...UNDER...I like the addition of Berkman and I like the O as a whole to improve, but the loss of Wainwright is big big big IMO

...Milwaukee Brewers...

I hope you like Bratwurst - SP Zack Greinke...SS Yuniesky Betancourt...SP Shaun Marcum...OF Nyjer Morgan

OUT - OF Lorenzo Cain...SS Alcides Escobar...RP Trevor Hoffman...C Gregg Zaun...RP Carlos Villanueva...SP Dave Bush...RP Todd Coffey

In the Brewers organization keep an eye on...2B Scooter Gennett...the Brew Crew traded numerous top prospects this off-season to acquire SP's Zack Greinke and Shaun Marcum...there still is skill in the organization, but mostly pitchers...Gennett is a position player that should get a real good look now as by default he has risen the charts...just 20 years old

I have both eyes on this team in 2011...I think they could certainly be in line to take this Division...A lot of their success will hinge on how well new Manager Ron Roenicke does...The long time right-hand man for several teams is now getting his chance to run the show...Certainly the addition of Greinke and Marcum bolster that starting rotation (a rotation that was one one the absolute worst in baseball in 2009, and again putrid in 2010)...Yovani Gallardo should be a great #3 there too...their is potential drop-off after that at #4 and #5 with Randy Wolf and Chris Narveson...I personally think Wolf will be replaced at some point...All of those guys are innings-eaters...Some good arms in the bullpen for the Brew Crew...LaTroy Hawkins (currently rehabbing but he should be able to contribute soon), Takashi Saito, Zach Braddock, Manny Parra, and Cameron Loe provide depth in the 'pen

The O has Don potential...They have the makings of a line-up that can run things...Middle of the line-up features guys like Ryan Braun, Prince Fielder, Casey McGehee, Richie Weeks, and Corey Hart...wow...plus they add Betancourt at SS and he has pop in his bat too...that leaves C Jonathan Lucroy (plus playing time may be available for Scarborough ON's own George Kottaras and newcomer Will Nieves) and CF Chris Gomez as the question marks here (newly acquired Nyjer Morgan will get a shot to be everyday CF)

The Over/Under win total for the 2011 Brew Crew is...85.5...improved pitching plus major potential in the batting line-up says OVER to me

...Chicago Cubs...

IN - 1B Carlos Pena...welcome back RP Kerry Wood...SP Matt Garza 

OUT - 1B Xavier Nady

In the Cubs organization keep an eye on...Chris Archer...he was once a prospect in the Indians organization, but he was a nightmare there...change of scenery has Archer back on the scene as a legit MLB prospect again...mid-90's fastball with MLB-ready slider and good changeup...Cubbies need him to improve his command, if he does we may see him at the MLB level as soon as 2011

3B Coach Mike Quade takes over as Manager for the Cubbies...he Managed the club for the final 37 games of 2010, winning 24 of them...impressive...But winning nearly twice as many games as you lose in a full season of course is a different animal all together...Quade has question marks in his starting rotation...Carlos Zambrano can be as amazing as he can be brutal...what will the 2011 Cubs get from those 2?...Canadian Ryan Dempster can be consistent, especially at home, the jury may still be out on Randy Wells...They do add Matt Garza and he has the potential to be great...In the bullpen it is "welcome back" for Kerry Wood...he will set up closer Carlos Marmol...Marmol is great, perhaps a tad underrated...Big Sean Marshall does a great job for the Cubs 'pen too

The O was middle-of-the-pack or worse for all categories in '10...There is potential here though...OF is deep with Alfonso Soriano, Tyler Colvin, Marlon Byrd, Kosuke Fukodome, and IF has guys with big pasts like Pena and 3B Aramis Ramirez...all of the above have talent and potential, and all did something well in 2010, but none even came close to putting together the type of complete season at the plate that they are capable of...C is potentially a question mark with C Geovany Soto (good 2010, but Cubs likely need him to be very good)...Double-play duo of SS Starlin Castro and 2B Blake DeWitt need to improve their D, and contribute on O too (Castro just turned 21 and he has mega-upside)

The Over/Under win total for the 2011 Cubbies is...82...I see a lot of potential on O, but I see too many combustible parts in the starting rotation to make me very confident in this 2011 Cubs team...UNDER

...Houston Astros...

IN - 2B Bill Hall...2B Clint Barmes...SP Ryan Rowland-Smith

OUT - 1B Geoff Blum...RP Matt Lindstrom

In the Astros organization keep an eye on...OF Ariel Ovando...very interesting kid...Astros gave him a ton of $$$ to sign the 16 year old...Ovando clearly has a ways to go to get to the MLB level, but at 16 the left-handed hitting stud is being compared to Fred McGriff and Jason Heyward at that age

Youth movement time in Houston...2010 saw veterans Roy Oswalt and Lance Berkman dealt for prospects as this team looks to the future...I like their path as I like Manger Brad Mills and his ability to work with, and develop, young players...A disastrous start in 2010 gave way to a great finish over the final 60% of the season...The starting rotation is perhaps underwhelming...Veteran Brett Myers leads the staff and has youngsters Wandy Rodriquez, Bud Norris and J.A. Happ to round out #1 through 4...the 5th starter may be newly signed lefty Ryan Rowland-Smith, or perhaps Aneury Rodriguez  or Lance Pendleton (both Rule 5 players so they have to remain on the MLB roster or be returned to the teams they came from)...The closer will likely be Brandon Lyon again...not a lot of depth in the Astros bullpen

The O was terrible in 2010...The 2011 Astros will give plenty of playing time to  youngsters like C Jason Castro, 3B Chris Johnson, and 1B Brett Wallace...A bounce back season will be required from Carlos Lee, while fellow OF Michael Bourn needs to improve...Houston would be thrilled if the other OF, Hunter Pence, continues his consistently strong play (last 3 years 25,25,25 HR's for Pence)...The IF is young and has plenty of new faces...the double-play duo is brand new as SS Clint Barmes returns to SS (from 2B with Colorado) and Bill Hall  will play 2B...The 2010 Astors hit an amazingly low 9 HR's combined from the SS and 2B positions...that will surely triple/quadruple in 2011

The Over/Under win total for the 2011 Astros is...72...UNDER...We see some down-the-road potential in Houston, but 2011 will likely be more of a rebuild than an attack

...Pittsburgh Pirates...

IN - 1B Garrett Atkins...1B Lyle Overbay...OF Matt Diaz...3B Josh Fields...SP Kevin Correia

OUT - SP Zach Duke...OF Lastings Milledge...OF Delwyn Young

In the Pirates organization keep an eye on...Jameson Taillon...18 year old already has about $6.5 million in his bank account thanks to the Pirates contract, but they believe they will get their money's worth with this 6'7" stud-in-the-making...Taillon has very good command of his mid-90's fastball, and has a MLB-ready curveball...

18 straight years of losing seasons in Pittsburgh...18...you would think that would have produced top draft pick after top draft pick and the organization would be about ready to explode with talent at the MLB level and be able to put that putrid streak in their rear-view mirror...uhmmm...not so...STILL not a lot to like for the Pirates and new Manager Clint Hurdle...let's take a look...

Pitt was one of MLB's worst O's in 2010, and was the worst staff...Management did spend some cash this off-season and brought in veterans like OF Matt Diaz, 1B Lyle Overbay, plus 3B's Andy Marte and Josh Fields (Marte and Fields could end up in the Minors to at least start the season)...The pitching could be bolstered by addition of vets Kevin Correia and Scott Olsen
Correia an Olsen join Paul Maholm and Ross Ohlendorf in the rotation...James McDonald will get a shot in the rotation too, as will Brad Lincoln and Charlie Morton...not a whole lot to get excited about here...In the 'pen Evan Meek and Joel Hanrahan are the late inning guys...again, not a lot there...

On O the Pirates need steps forward in 2011 from guys like 3B Pedro Alvarez, 2B Neil Walker, and OF's Jose Tabata, Garrett Jones (Jones may platoon with newcomer Diaz), and Andrew McCutchen...A major question mark for the 2011 Pirates is the C position...Will it be newcomer Chris Snyder, or will Ryan Doumit rebound from poor 2010 to retain his spot behind the plate?!?!

The Over/Under win total for the 2011 Pirates is...67.5...UNDER...we see some position players that could be MLB quality players for years to come, but likely not in 2011...Plus there is really not much to like as far as pitching skill or depth

Check out the other MLB Previews...and follow me on twitter @craigballard77

craig.ballard@hotmail.com