AFC East preview

New England Patriots

these 2 will be on the attack in '10

I am really surprised to see how under-the-radar this Pats team is heading into 2010...the Jets are getting the pub in the AFC East, but to overlook New England during the Belichick-Brady era seems insane to me...this team limped to a 5-11 finish in 2000, but won the Super Bowl the following year and have had 9-7 as their worse season since...fans around the NFL would love for their team to win 10+ games this season...the Pats have been in double-digits in the W column for 7 straight years...2010 will be the 8th straight...

On your stats sheets at home go ahead and take a permanent pen and mark down Tom Terrific for 4,000+ yards...28+ TD's...go ahead and mark WR Randy Moss at 15+ TD's (Moss is in a contract year so I am anticipating a monster season from this stud)...it may be a slow start to the season for WR Wes Welker as he continues his incredibly quick recovery from a brutal knee injury which just 7 months ago required reconstructive surgery...but Brady has depth to throw to in WR's Julian Edelman and Brandon Tate...plus rookie TE's to play catch with in the Red Zone like Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez...

The running game and the defense are hardily Super Bowl contending units...any sense of excitement for the career of RB Laurence Maroney is gone...2004 is the last time the Pats had a 1,000 yard rusher, and Maroney has never reached that #, yet he will be the starter as the cupboard is pretty bare at the RB position...veterans Fred Taylor, Sammy Morris, and Kevin Faulk round out the underwhelming crew...I hope the plan is to run to the right where 6'8" 315 pound Sebastian Vollmer is entering his 2nd year and will be the starting Right Tackle

The D was likely going to be a unit that was going to struggle, but injuries and cuts have made the unit sure to struggle in 2010...The Pats were a Top 5 team in 2009 as far as points allowed, but 2010 will not be a repeat...I think the Pats will be in the bottom third of the NFL this season on D...losing Ty Warren hurts...losing CB Leigh Bodden hurts...the other starting CB from last season Shawn Springs is no longer a Patriot, plus S Jarrad Page is in to replace the injured Brandon McGowan leaving S Brandon Meriweather as the only returning starter to the Secondary

A lot of holes and issues for the 2010 New England Patriots, but I am a believer in Tom Terrific and Bill Belichick's ability to raise the level of play from their teammates...not a lot of love for the Pats entering the season and I think that works for them...these guys as an under-the-radar team could be dangerous, and a play-off squad...for me as I said I see a lot of holes here, but if you want to sleep on a Belichick/Brady team then you go right ahead...

PREDICTION...10-6...if the D can step up and provide stops better then I am projecting, and pressure the opposing QB better then I think, then the Brady Bunch should be able to outscore opponents and win 11+

 New York J-E-T-S JETSJETSJETS

Fireman Ed

Has Fireman Ed ever had a team to be so optimistic about?!?!  The 2010 Jets have fans thinking about a Super Bowl...heck the 2009 Jets had fans 1 half of football away from a Super Bowl...

The Jets were the best D in the NFL in '09 but we know that a massive part of that was the incredible campaign put together by CB Darrelle Revis and he is just getting there now...the good news is the Jets do have rookie CB Kyle Wilson for depth in case Revis Island takes a few weeks to get back to his high level of play...as I have wrote before the fact that the Jets had such a talent like Wilson fall in their laps with the #29 pick was great for this organization...the 2009 season from Revis was the best from that position that I have ever seen so there is certainly may be a drop-off if he is not quick to get back to his 2009 form, but to be able to have depth with a talent like Wilson is pretty damn good for the Gotham Green

The running game was great in 2009...the passing game not so much...of course that is because of how Head Coach Rex Ryan wants to win games which is with an aggressive/attacking D with a ball-controlled/run-oriented offense...the running game loses Thomas Jones and Leon Washington, but adds LaDainian Tomlinson, and of course a TON is expected from 2nd year man Shonn Greene...the passing game adds Santonio Holmes (after his NFL imposed 4 game suspension to begin the season)...the unit does have to help 2nd year QB Mark Sanchez improve on his 2009 stats of 12 TD's and 20 INT's...I think the addition of Tomlinson will help as he is a good check-down option for Sanchez to dump the ball to instead of trying to force the ball down field to covered WR's...as impressive as Greene was in his rookie 2009 season he had zero catches so he did not help his QB in the passing game at all...

Sanchez's #'s have to greatly improve, as does the 2009 home record of 4-4...Ryan and the Jets truly consider themselves an elite team capable of representing the AFC in the Super Bowl this season, but teams who are .500 at home are not traditionally huge contenders...more like pretenders...

PREDICTION...this was a 9-7 team in 2009 and I see some steps forward and some steps backwards...I do like their chances to continue to improve and contend in the AFC...10-6...a schedule that could allow the team to get to 11-5 (especially if they can repeat their 5-3 road record from '09 as this team is built to win on the road)


Miami Dolphins

3rd year Head Coach Tony Sparano  saw his 11-5 dream season from 2008 come back to reality in 2009 as his 'Phins lost the final 3 games to limp to the finish at 7-9...last season saw the team lose the first 3 games, and last 3 games, with a 7-3 middle...a 4-2 Division record included 2-0 vs the Jets...but just 4-4 at home which certainly has to improve

The celebrity owners of the team (Stephen Ross, Gloria and Emilio Estefan, Jimmy Buffett, Marc Anthony and J-Lo, Venus and Serena Williams, Fergie) invested a ton of $$$ into the franchise this off-season with the signing of free-agent LB Karlos Dansby, and trading for WR Brandon Marshall...the 2 of them a looking at a combined $93 million over the next 5 years...Dansby is the type of talent that can lead the D, and Brandon Marshall is an absolute beast at the WR position who is sure to be the #1 target going forward for young/developing QB Chad Henne...

A couple of years ago in Week 3 the Dolphins introduced the Wildcat offense in a game at New England and it has been a staple of their O ever since...the good thing about the Wildcat is it allowed their 2 best players (Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams) to be on the field at the same time...look for this to change in 2010...firstly Brown and Williams are no longer the best players on O (Marshall and Henne) secondly 2009 2nd round pick QB Pat White who was drafted to be the QB for the Wildcat was just cut, thirdly with WR's like Marshall, plus young talent like Brian Hartline and Devone Bess you don't want to run "gimmick" formations...even with the fact that Henne has limited experience I still think a more traditional running game and passing game should be the strategy going forward in South Beach...

For me, and if you are a reader of my blog then you know I have said this before, I want the 'Phins to re-establish TE Anthony Fasano as an every-down target for the QB - especially in the Red Zone...in 2008 Fasano and QB Chad Pennington developed a wonderful chemistry to the tune of 7 TD's which plummeted to just 2 last season with Henne at the helm...the WR unit is going to be very good for Miami which should allow a softer middle of the field for Fasano to operate...

part-owners Fergie and J-Lo

The pash-rush for Miami was very good in 2009 and that will of course need to continue...the Secondary has 2nd year starters Vontae Davis and Sean Smith, who both look like they have big careers ahead of them, but both have certain room for improvement...I actually am pretty optimistic that the D can take strides forward in 2010...rookies Jared Odrick (DE) and Koa Misi (LB) earned starting roles in Training Camp and should have a chance to contribute immediately

PREDICTION...this looks like a sure 8 win team to me, with a fortuitous break here-and-there I can see 9-7 with the highest upside of 10-6 (even as a Dolphins fan I think 10-6 would mean that a LOT of things went their way)

Buffalo Bills
Toronto's own Buffalo Bills have not made the play-offs in the 2000's...2010 will not change that...in is new Head Coach Chan Gailey (side note, and rant - why oh why do fossil-franchises like the Bills continue to hire re-tread Head Coaches like Dick Jauron and now Chan Gailey...the first-time coaches they gave chances to in the 2000's did not work out - Gregg Williams and Mike Mularky - but NFL franchise-after-franchise is going with the trend of hiring up-and-coming coaches and giving them the keys to the franchise and we see when it is done properly the results are immediate up-turns for the franchises...in their own Division Miami and New York have first-time coaches putting their teams back on the map...Baltimore has John Harbaugh - Pitt has Mike Tomlin - INDY has Jim Caldwell - Minny has Brad Childress - Hotlanta has Mike Smith - NWO has Sean Payton - Tampa Bay has Raheem Morris - SF has Mike Singletary - 'Zona has Ken Whisenhunt...all examples here have their teams on the right paths going forward so we see numerous examples of this working out, so why give a glorified Offensive Coordinator with zero career play-off wins your Head Coach job?!?!)

The roster is full of holes...the O-Line is comical...the QB is terrible...the WR unit has no talent to keep opposing D's from keying in on WR Lee Evans...just a whole lot of yikes on this roster...

TD for C.J. Spiller at Rogers Centre

I do like the RB unit...Marshawn Lynch and Fred Jackson are the best players on the Offense (Lee Evans is really good though) and rookie C.J. Spiller is the best Home Run hitter on this team...if Gailey can game plan ways to get Spiller the ball in the open field he can put 6 points on the board in a hurry...

The key for me for this '10 squad is to improve their decade-long home futility...Buffalo was once a sure "L" for teams coming into Orchard Park, but the team is 38-42 in the 2000's at home...not even at .500...since the NFL expanded in 2002 the Bills are the only non-expansion team in the AFC to have not yet made the play-offs...I have good friends and family who are lifelong Bills fans and their suffering will continue in 2010, but for me I think if they can get back to a 5-3 home record then at least there will be cause for optimism going forward...

PREDICTION...if the Secondary can continue its impressive play from last season then perhaps we are looking at a 6 win team (if things really go well for them the upside would be 7 wins) but if they cannot create the turnovers in 2010 then this is a 4 or 5 win team...

check out the other Division previews... craig.ballard@hotmail.com