@craigballard77

Tuesday, May 11, 2010

2010 NBA Western Conference Finals preview.....

First and foremost I want to give praise to Los Suns and the Lakers for being the 2 teams remaining in this incredible Western Conference......to put the level of excellence that the West is dealing with these days in perspective consider this - the most wins EVER in one season by the Toronto Raptors is 47, it has been 3 years since that amount of wins would have qualified for the play-offs in the West....2 of the last 3 years every play-off team in the West won at least 50 Regular Season games so to be the final 2 teams left is impressive......both teams equally impressive as Phoenix exercises play-off demons against San Antonio, and LA has scored 111 4 times in a 6 game winning streak since losing games 3 and 4 in OK City

......LA won 3 of the 4 meetings this year against Phoenix but 3 of those games were early in the season and before this Suns late-season run....

We know the Suns are powered by Steve Nash and he gets Amare and Jason Richardson involved on a regular basis, but that Nash guy also helps 5 other Suns average between 7.4 to 9.5 points per game during their 8-2 play-off run....the fact that guys like 37 year old Grant Hill, Channing Frye, Jared Dudley, and Louis Amundson are contributing to a Conference Finals team is a testament to the Hall Of Fall career being built by Nash......Leandro Barbosa and Goran Dragic also contribute to this team and both also benefit from Nash's brilliance Nash
Los Suns ran a lay-up drill against the Spurs who were unable to provide any resistance or consequences for attacking the basket......we can count on the Lakers front court providing a significantly better challenge inside the paint - so for Phoenix to score at their usual high-pace I think they will have to hit the 3-point shot at a very high percentage......Phoenix shoots the 3-ball like they're playing a video game......the Suns are shooting 42% from downtown in these play-offs compared to 34% for LA......Nash, J-Rich and Dragic are all shooting at least .444 from 3-point land, higher then any Lakers player.......The 3-ball is the only chance I see for the Suns to try to negate some of the Lakers length and skill advantage down low in the post.....


Alvin Genrty is in his first full season at the helm of the Suns and he will be hoping to have Robin Lopez back for this series......the 7-foot Lopez has been out of the entire play-offs due to injury, but the Suns leading shot blocker is on the verge of returning to the line-up and is an upgrade from Jarron Collins - and a better fit down low with Amare


Amare will have to score in this series too - and he is their best chance to go and get a big offensive rebound......Suns will need their Big 3 of Nash/J-Rich/Amare to be superstars and score in the 20's to have a chance to win vs LA..... even if Phoenix rains 3's they will still need Amare to be aggressive and score at a high level as their team defense - as usual - will be in question meaning the offense will have to really be on point to try to get 4 wins before the Lakers do.......TALL order.......the Lakers have for some time now been a team that struggles to contain quick/explosive Point Guards like Nash so Steve knows his teams only chance, or at least best chance, is domination by Nash - and he is an amazing player/leader capable of special things


For the Lakers this marks a 3rd straight trip to the Western Conference Finals......since getting Pau Gasol the Lakers are 8-0 in their western play-off series'....none of those series came against the Suns.....in those 8 series wins 5 of them have been against defensive teams like San Antonio-Utah-Houston.....the Kobe/Pau era has never played an offense like this Suns offense
KB is on a 5 game streak of at least 30 points and Pau has shown that he is special in that he is soooo damn consistent so we know the Lakers will get production every game from these 2 studs.......the Suns can score but will provide little in the way of lock-down defense so the Lakers, who will need to continue their own hot offense to score with Phoenix, will have a chance to put up numbers......
look for LA to commit to getting the ball to Gasol/Bynum plus Odom and Kobe on the block/in the post to take advantage of what could be an insurmountable advantage down low.....using their advantage down low will also force the Suns to send more defenders into the post then they would like as that could negate their (Suns) opportunities to get out on a quick fast break.......OK City and Utah both took time to adjust to the Lakers defensive length and although Phoenix has played LA 4 times this year those games were against Regular Season Lakers, not the current Focused, Look Out-Lakers.......Lakers can beat you so many different ways - more then any other team, and they are a rare team in that thre is no style-of-play that will concern them.....Phoenix was able to dictate tempo in the San Antonio sweep...the Spurs are not built to carry high-octane offense for an entire game but the Lakers can....proof of their depth is that we have already looked at impressive Lakers players and what they will have a chance to accomplish against the Suns players, but we haven't even mention Ron Artest/Derek Fisher/Shannon Brown all of whom are also contributing to this years 8-2 Lakers play-off run........
I don't believe things the Suns had available to them in the Spurs series will be available in the LA series, especially at the rim, but even if the Suns can knock down 3's the Lakers are hot form downtown right now too....Fish/Artest/KB/Odom all shooting better lately and if this Lakers team can really continue to play well inside and outside they will 3-peat as Western Conference Champions......if defense wins championships then there is no drama to the outcome of this series as the Lakers play good team defense - great team defense in stretches - and the Suns traditionally play none

Irony of any 7-game series that involves Phil Jackson is that Game 1 usually tells the story for what the end result of the series will be....Jackson-coached teams are 45-0 when winning the first game of a series and 22 of those have come at the helm of the Lakers


Lakers in 5........if the Suns catch a big break somewhere in the series then Lakers in 6