The Raps will earn the 8th and final spot if...
- they can get healthy...Starters Andrea Bargnani, Sonny Weems, Jose Calderon, Ed Davis, Reggie Evans, and bench players like Linas Kleiza, Leandro Barbosa, Jerryd Bayless, and Peja Stojakovic have all missed time due to injury (many are currently m.i.a)...the only 2 Raps available to Jay Triano for all 33 games so far have been 2nd year SG DeMar DeRozan and 2nd year Raptor PF Amir Johnson...to compare we will look at the top teams...San Antonio (best record in the Association) has 6 players who have played every single game...even the East leading Celtics, who have had a ton of injuries (especially if you add up the weight!) have had 5 guys go every game...the Raps were going to struggle anyway being that this is a brand new roster, but to have the amazing # of injuries further pushes back any learning or gelling together curve...
- they can improve on their retched 4-12 Road record...the 3 teams directly in front of them in the standings currently are Philly, Detroit, and Charlotte who are all also brutal on the Road so the Raps can gain ground on those teams if their play in the United States improves (and overseas play...see Important 2011 Raptors Dates below)...
- Brian Colangelo uses the approx $12 mill remaining in the Trade Exception the Raps received back in the Chris Bosh trade to add an asset...part of that Exception was already used to bring in Jarryd Bayless, but with the Trade Deadline now under 2 months away teams will become more and more active looking to trade players
- The Raps can catch up to the learning curve that Philly, Indiana, Charlotte are on currently...coaching changes in Philly and Charlotte have veteran coaches like Doug Collins and Paul Silas in, while veteran Jim O'Brien in his 4th year with the Pacers and has a new PG to work with in Darren Collison which has the Pacers playing well enough to be the #8 seed in the East
Important 2011 Raps dates...
Friday Jan 14 - home vs Detroit
Wed Jan 26 - home vs Philly
Mon Jan 31 @ Indiana
Tues Feb 22 @ Charlotte
Toronto Raptors vs New Jersey Nets March 4 and 5 at the O2 Arena in London, England (the same venue that has hosted several NBA preseason games over years)...how will the Raps look on the World stage?!?!
Friday March 11 through Wednesday March 16 the Raps play 3 crucial games...home vs Indy...home vs Charlotte...@ Detroit
Sunday March 20 through Saturday March 26 an UGLY looking West Coast trip sees 5 games in 7 nights
14 games listed here and I believe the Raps make the playoffs as a #8 seed if they get 9 of those games in the W column...if the injury bug continues to plague the Raps though then the short term W's may not be there leaving the Raps to perhaps need to win 10+ of those games...tall order, but a healthy Raps squad has a chance
February 24, 2011...NBA Trade Deadline...Raps are sure to be active
April 16, 2011...NBA playoffs begin
June 23, 2011...NBA Entry Draft...will the Raps (again) be in the lottery?!?!
The Jays will qualify for post season play in 2011 for the first time since 1993 if...
- Brandon Morrow and Ricky Romero can solidify themselves as legit 1-2 punch in the AL East...also Brett Cecil and Kyle Drabek will have to continue to leap ahead of their learning curve and start to dominate every 5th day...that leaves any of Jesse Litsch, Brad Mills, Dustin McGowan, or Marc Rzepczynski as the #5 starter and whoever it is will have to be lights-out in a Division that was already potent, and just added Adrian Gonzalez, Derrick Lee, Mark Reynolds, Russell Martin
- Octavio Dotel saves 30+ games...out is 32 year old Closer Kevin Gregg and in is 37 year old Octavio Dotel...also David Purcey and/or Jesse Carlson have to fill the void left by Scott Downs/Brian Tallet from the left side, plus Jason Frasor, Casey Janssen, and Shawn Camp have to pick up the slack from the right side with Kevin Gregg gone...
- the man catching for all of the above will be J.P. Arencibia...J.P. became the first player in decades to have 4 hits (2 of them HR's) in his MLB debut and he was named Pacific Coast League (AAA) MVP last season...J.P. will have to prove he can hit at this level consistently
- a similar season from Jose Bautista is crucial...50 HR's may not be needed/realistic but 40+ is essential
- the teams #1 hitter cannot hit just .273 like Vernon Wells did this season...multiple .290+ hitters are required and 3 of them have to be named Escobar, Hill, and Lind...
- in the last month of the 2009 season Jose BautistaEncarnacion belting multiple HR's and the Jays desperately need production from the Third Base spot so he must contribute
- Travis Snider has to show a full season of his skills...no injuries...no holes in his swing...Snider will be 23 when the season starts and it IS time for him to produce to his lofty potential
- either Rajai Davis or Corey Patterson takes the opportunity here in Canada and run with it...both will get the chance to be the everyday lead-off hitter for this team in Spring Training and both will have the shot that the Jays gave Fred Lewis last season which is to play an Outfield spot and lead-off every day with the insistence on being a base-stealing threat...Anthony Gose waits in the wings for his shot to be that guy too...
Important 2011 Jays dates...
Feb. 25: Mandatory Spring Training report date for everyone
April fools day 2011...Jays open their season on this day vs the Twins
May 20, 2011...Interleague play starts for the Jays...traditionally the Jays have struggled vs the NL teams in Interleague play
early-mid June 2011 - MLB Draft...AA was very impressive in his initial MLB Draft in 2010, especially when it came to stockpiling young high-upside arms into the organization, and 2011 should be the same thing...
July 12: 2011 All-Star Game at Chase Field in Phoenix, AZ...the Jays will need approx 3-4 players on the All Star team if they are going to contend for the post-season
July 31: 2011 MLB Trade Deadlines for non-waiver players...if the Jays are truly in contention then for the first time in years they will be buyers at the annual Trade Deadline...
How was your New Years?!?! drop me a line... craig.ballard@hotmail.com
