Wild Card Weekend...Saturday games



Sean Peyton & Pete Carroll

 New Orleans @ Seattle...on paper this is about as big a mis-match as is even possible for a playoff game in any sport...the Seahawks are the NFC West champs and are the only playoff team ever with a losing record (7-9), while the Saints won 11 games but thanks to the 12 W's by Division foe Hotlanta the Saints go marching in to the playoffs as a Wild Card team...

Defending Super Bowl Champs vs worst Division Champ ever...

No playoff team allows more yards per game than do the 'Hawks...no team in the NFC allows fewer yards per game than do the Saints...

No playoff team allows more points per game than do the Seahawks...

Seattle rushes for a horrible average of 3.7 yards per carry...both teams were bad at scoring TD's via the running game (Seattle 13 rushing TD's while New Orleans a terrible 9 rushing TD's)...the Saints got #1 RB Chris Ivory back last week, but an injury has now ended his season, and late word is the season is also over for RB Pierre Thomas leaving RB Reggie Bush and RB Julius Jones to carry the ball...New Orleans rushed for 94 yards per game (4th worst in the League) while Seattle gets only 89 rushing yards per game (2nd worst in the League)

The passing game is where the separation of these two offenses really gets big...Drew Brees vs either Matt Hasselbeck or Charlie Whitehurst...Brees and the Saints complete passes at a higher completion rate than any team in the NFL, while the Seahawks are in the bottom third of most passing categories (bottom 5 in several categories)...

Seattle WR Mike Williams is an under-the-radar great story in 2010 IMO...former Detroit 1st round pick in 2005 (#10 overall...remember the Matt Millen years in Detroit when he drafted WR after WR in the 1st round and only Calvin Johnson worked out?!?!) leads the 'Hawks with 65 catches for 751 yards after being out of the NFL since 2007...Williams was a star at USC under current Seahawks coach Pete Carroll and he has found success in Seattle

The Saints spread the ball around with Pro Bowl QB Drew Brees...Marques Colston got 1,000+ receiving yards and Lance Moore and Robert Meachem get their share of catches too...add TE's Jeremy Shockey and Jimmy Graham, plus of course Reggie Bush and Devery Henderson and we see a lot of options for the uber talented Brees to spread the football too...

The Saints Secondary is a top 5 unit, while the Seahawks is bottom 5

This is the game in Wild Card Weekend where all the trends/stats/rosters significantly favour one side....Seattle's crowd gives them a great home field advantage as they cause more false starts for their opponents than any other stadium, but that is unlikely enough to de-rail the Saints attack...


Prediction...New Orleans wins 34-13





Loudmouth Jackass vs calm...cool..collected

 New York Jets @ Indianapolis...rematch of last years AFC Title game...a game that the Colts won to get into the Super Bowl, yet the Jets remember that they led the game at halftime only to get Peyton Manning-ed in the 2nd half...

As per usual the loudmouthed jackass Rex Ryan is making statements etc that put him as the lead story in a Jets game, but Ryan will not throw a pass, rush for any yards, or make any tackles so let's look at the people who are actually important here... 

Peyton Manning vs Mark Sanchez...no team threw for more yards than the Colts, while only the KC Chiefs had less passing yards than the Jets amongst AFC playoff teams in 2010...

Manning usually is amazing at passing the football, but this season he was amazing with names like Dallas Clark Anthony Gonzalez, and Austin Collie out of action...Reggie Wayne and Pierre Garcon have been good, bordering on great for Manning, and the team has had contributions from Practise Squad players like Jacob Tamme, Blair White, plus little used guys like Donald Brown, Javarris James, Brandon James, and Mike Hart...

The Jets made upgrades to their WR unit by adding Braylon Edwards during 2009, and then trading for Santonio Holmes in 2010...they also added LaDanian Tomlinson to add a RB for Sanchez that is adept at catching the check-down passes out of the backfield...that talent goes with TE Dustin Keller to give Sanchez options and weapons...the main issue with the passing game on Saturday is likely the health oh Mark Sanchez's throwing shoulder...

The Jets D does not resemble the shut-down unit they were in 2009, but the stats are still promising as they rank #3 in total yards allowed...#6 vs the pass and #8 sacks...all of that bodes well vs the Colts who have a poor running game (only Washington, Arizona, and Seattle had worse running attacks in 2010) and as we know will rely on Peyton to carry the day...

Only the KC Chiefs have a better running game than the Jets (for teams who made the playoffs) while no playoff team defended the run as poorly as the Colts did...



Super Bowl III rematch...Broadway Joe Super Bowl

 The Jets were very good with 40 Sacks, while the Colts got a middle-of-the-pack 30 Sacks...but the Colts only allowed their QB to get sacked an amazing 16 times (best in the NFL...by contrast the worst was Chicago who allowed 56)

My prediction here is the team with the fewest dropped passes wins the game...I will predict that Indy will have fewer dropped passes and thus win the game...Prediction - 23-16 Colts win

Sunday's games to soon follow... craig.ballard@hotmail.com